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UFC FN: Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen, April 15

he probably won't get chinned. But if we simply set the criteria for betting against Max to be anyone with a close opponent rating, the pool of fighters is narrowed down to Volk and maybe Rodriguez again. We can't default pick Max because of his resume, I see Allen hits the mark in the sense he beats the mid level guys soundly. He was briefly stunned and recovered quickly by Hooker during his flurry exchange, but never knocked down in any fight i've seen. Striking wise, he is a little faster than Max, he slips punches a lot better, and he's a little more methodical when he throws. He also imo has a better straight punch , it has more power, where max is a volume striker. Take also the striking defense, Allen doesn't get hit often.

Agree on all counts honestly. I think for those backing Allen, the expectation would be that it looks like Max vs Dustin. My only issue with that is that iDK if Alllen can back Max up the way Dustin did. When Max fought Dustin, that was a FW trying his hand vs a guy who'd grown himself into a big LW. They LOOKED a weight class apart, at least. Allen is skilled, but I am skeptical of his ability to hurt Max enough to slow his constant volume the way Dustin did.
 
I like watching Quarantillo fight but I don't think he should be a dog to Barboza. Even now.

You mean you don't think Billy should be favored?
 


Zak Cummings
  • Almost 39-years-old.
  • Hasn't fought in almost 3 years.
  • Moving from 185 to 205 pounds to fight Ed Herman.
  • Says he wants to be aggressive against Herman because he knows Herman gets rocked and he thinks he can finish him, but he knows it's difficult for anyone to finish Herman.
  • He's fighting in his hometown of Kansas City, and fought on the previous Kansas City card exactly 6 years ago to the day.
  • His daughter will be in attendance for the first time to watch him fight.
  • He said he's essentially coming back to MMA for one last fight to show his daughter that he's still a badass, and then he'll likely retire.
  • He only has two fights left on his contract, and this fight against Ed Herman is 1 of the 2, and he said he won't sign a new contract.
 


Zak Cummings
  • Almost 39-years-old.
  • Hasn't fought in almost 3 years.
  • Moving from 185 to 205 pounds to fight Ed Herman.
  • Says he wants to be aggressive against Herman because he knows Herman gets rocked and he thinks he can finish him, but he knows it's difficult for anyone to finish Herman.
  • He's fighting in his hometown of Kansas City, and fought on the previous Kansas City card exactly 6 years ago to the day.
  • His daughter will be in attendance for the first time to watch him fight.
  • He said he's essentially coming back to MMA for one last fight to show his daughter that he's still a badass, and then he'll likely retire.
  • He only has two fights left on his contract, and this fight against Ed Herman is 1 of the 2, and he said he won't sign a new contract.

Fading him
 
i saw Herman's last fight he honestly looked like shit.
Does zak cummins ever look good? -250? After 3 years?

at least Herman will fight for my money

this is a one last paycheck fight for each guy. No way I would pay that kind of juice on Cummings
 
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I like watching Quarantillo fight but I don't think he should be a favorite to Barboza; even now.
I think it's very similar to the main event.
In a prime vs prime matchup the respective vets (Max+Barboza) should win handedly.
Basically I see both bets as "have these guys deteriorated enough that their opponents can beat them?"
In both cases my answer is "Maybe?" haha
 
I think it's very similar to the main event.
In a prime vs prime matchup the respective vets (Max+Barboza) should win handedly.
Basically I see both bets as "have these guys deteriorated enough that their opponents can beat them?"
In both cases my answer is "Maybe?" haha

I know he started MMA earlier than most guys, but I love how Max is so casually tossed in with guys like Edson in terms of career arc when one is 37 and the other is 31. Yes, mileage matters. For sure. But so does ACTUAL age. A 31 year old body, even one that's been through wars, responds WAY differently than a 37 year old body in most cases.
 
Does zak cummins ever look good? -250? After 3 years?

at least Herman will fight for my money

this is a one last paycheck fight for each guy. No way I would pay that kind of juice on Cummings
yeah they both kind of are ring rusted. Gl to your bet . i’m passing, i think both will look lack luster.
 
Does zak cummins ever look good? -250? After 3 years?

at least Herman will fight for my money

this is a one last paycheck fight for each guy. No way I would pay that kind of juice on Cummings
Will he fight for it tho? Or will he just lumber forward eating shots?

Touching this fight feels like insanity.
 
I know he started MMA earlier than most guys, but I love how Max is so casually tossed in with guys like Edson in terms of career arc when one is 37 and the other is 31. Yes, mileage matters. For sure. But so does ACTUAL age. A 31 year old body, even one that's been through wars, responds WAY differently than a 37 year old body in most cases.
Both age and mileage wear down a fighter, and unfortunately there is no guaranteed formula for determining which one gets them first, or when the rapid decline will happen. Injuries add on to that as well obviously, but I guess that would be part of the "mileage" factor. I would also add that fighters who rely heavily upon their physical tools(reflexes, size, chin, etc.) will be the most noticeable/sudden decline.

So even though you are correct in saying 31 =/= 37, the counter to that is the mileage/toll on the body. Max's chin has eaten a LOT of strikes. And not just volume, often dozens of chin crackers in a single round. His speech is already showing the classic CTE symptoms. He's also mentioned numerous times how much he hates the cut at 145. Even though Volk put on a master clinic in their last match (probably should have been stopped IMO) the things to note were how much more flat footed and slow Max looked. Again, partly that was because of how crazy fast/mobile Volk is, but I think it's at least fair to say that Max isn't in his prime any more. I wouldn't go so far as to say he's shot by any means, just that he's a step down from where he once was. The problem is that he's gonna be tested against the fastest/best in the division due to his ranking, and they are gonna be the ones to expose every step of decline he takes. Will Allen be the one to do it? I'm not sure. But to put it in perspective, if the Yair that just fought Emmett was rematching the Max that just fought Volk I'd put a hefty bet on Yair and I'd probably sprinkle some on a stoppage.
 
Both age and mileage wear down a fighter, and unfortunately there is no guaranteed formula for determining which one gets them first, or when the rapid decline will happen. Injuries add on to that as well obviously, but I guess that would be part of the "mileage" factor. I would also add that fighters who rely heavily upon their physical tools(reflexes, size, chin, etc.) will be the most noticeable/sudden decline.

So even though you are correct in saying 31 =/= 37, the counter to that is the mileage/toll on the body. Max's chin has eaten a LOT of strikes. And not just volume, often dozens of chin crackers in a single round. His speech is already showing the classic CTE symptoms. He's also mentioned numerous times how much he hates the cut at 145. Even though Volk put on a master clinic in their last match (probably should have been stopped IMO) the things to note were how much more flat footed and slow Max looked. Again, partly that was because of how crazy fast/mobile Volk is, but I think it's at least fair to say that Max isn't in his prime any more. I wouldn't go so far as to say he's shot by any means, just that he's a step down from where he once was. The problem is that he's gonna be tested against the fastest/best in the division due to his ranking, and they are gonna be the ones to expose every step of decline he takes. Will Allen be the one to do it? I'm not sure. But to put it in perspective, if the Yair that just fought Emmett was rematching the Max that just fought Volk I'd put a hefty bet on Yair and I'd probably sprinkle some on a stoppage.

IDK...maybe I need to rewatch the last Max/Volk fight. I remember way more Volk just looking terrific vs Max looking noticeably slower or bad...but I could be remembering wrong too. I agree, mileage matters as much (or more) than age. But **usually** it's a combination of both where the steep falloff happens. With Max, he only has one of the two.

The weight cut is another factor, fair point. Especially because it gets tougher every year he gets older.
 
Does zak cummins ever look good? -250? After 3 years?

at least Herman will fight for my money

this is a one last paycheck fight for each guy. No way I would pay that kind of juice on Cummings

Cummings doesnt look good in general but he is pretty consistent winner at this level and even seems to have bit of luck on his side. I agree that the odds are pretty funny given the stylistic matchup and layoff.
 
I’m really torn on the Jacoby vs Azamat fight and keep going back n forth on who I think is gonna win. Anyone got any strong opinion on the fight?
 
I’m really torn on the Jacoby vs Azamat fight and keep going back n forth on who I think is gonna win. Anyone got any strong opinion on the fight?
when you feel its 50/50 go with the dog. i didn’t hesitate at 170+ Azamat is a gd boxer, he has a snappier 1-2.

There isn’t anyone special that Jacoby has beaten that Azamat could not beat.
 
I think cummings wins but it'll look like a 50-50 sloppy fight. Herman slightly bigger but I think Cummings technique and speed the difference maker.
I also played Azamat as a dog as jacoby fights seem to be really close when they shouldn't be.

Also IDK why Max doesn't just go to 155. He lost thrice to the champ. Even if Yair wins in July(I don't think he will), move up as Yair'll rematch Volk.
Give Max some fellow veterans while he gets used to the weight class.
 
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