UFC FN: Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen, April 15

[Jasper_RB81]

I like the O2.5 in the Gillian vs Pierra fight at -125.
Pierra has pillows on her hands so Gillian should survive on the feet by mixing in a bit of wall n stall.
I can se Pierra actually keeping it on the feet while mixing in some takedowns and keep it safe in full guard before standing up again.
I think that pierra has pretty solid grappling so I don't think Gillian subs her from her back.
Obviously this prediction can go south fast if Gillian wins the scrambles and ends up on top, but I trust Pierra to stay safe then.
One last thing. Gillian will not be able to tire out Pierra like Sam did, she doesn't fight like that. Hopefully this will be a pretty boring slow paced fight.

I have 1 unit on this.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

arnold allen to win
bruna brasil by dec
rafa garcia by dec

 

[DabanggData]

I took Dustin Jacoby -159 on betonline, it is -192 average on bestfightodds

7 inch reach advantage
5 inch height advantage
New 4-fight UFC contract
Anthony Smith back training with him

Dustin Jacoby had won 6 straight before dropping a fight to Khalil Rountree by Split Decision in October on a controversial judges' decision

http://mmadecisions.com/decision/13565/Khalil-Rountree-Jr.-vs-Dustin-Jacoby

https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/martial-arts/mma/ufc-kansas-city

Old from: https://thebodylockmma.com/ufc/predictions/

"Dustin Jacoby has an extremely high-level stand-up game and great distance management. He stands relatively wide and puts on a lot of pressure with feints and a nice heavy left-body kick, but when his opponents return, he’s already set up a counter with his hands. He will utilize an outstretched lead left to parry, but because he keeps his head on the centerline at times this becomes very dangerous and he has eaten shots because of this. That being said, if he can time his footwork and slide back, he is also good at landing the right straight because he stays on that line. Jacoby is truly at his best when he is the one putting on the pressure. If he finds himself constantly moving away and circling on his backfoot, he does find more difficulty in putting together combos. He likes to circle to his left and use the lead check left hook as his opponent comes in but moving backward it’s difficult to chain much afterward. When he engages on his terms, he is much better at diversifying his attack, mixing things up between the body and landing leg kicks, but when pushed himself sometimes he will revert to a more boxing approach. If Jacoby is at his best, he is fluid and light on his feet, especially for a light heavyweight. He works the outside with a very loose guard, and uses a lot of hand tricks and showboating to actually create openings for lead jab and straights. His jab is especially tricky, because he mixes it up between a traditional straight jab and a hybrid somewhere moving towards a backfist. Kicking is also a massive part of his game, especially his lowkicks, which he uses to chop at the legs and emphasize his already typical advantage in movement and mobility. He switches stance often as well to offer different looks and angles to land with power. However, if we see him lose composure at times in the fight, his habits can be emphasized. Should the tire especially, he has shown a tendency to leave his head on the cendre line when throwing his kicks, which especially becomes a large hole when he throws low. While he has not been particularly exposed by great wrestlers, he does lack in some areas. When controlling his opponent, given the opportunity to attack a submission, he can allow sp[ace enough space for his opponents to recover or get back to their feet. Especially from a front headlock, he neglects to control the posture of his opponent before securing the grip on the head meaning they can wrestle back to their feet....................... Dustin Jacoby is a loose, sloppy striker but his gangly frame comes with ridiculous power. Moreover, Jacoby has surprisingly slick head movement that he uses to feint. Leaning his head on a platter in front of opponents, Jacoby’s feet remain at a safe distance and allow him to retract his head when his foe takes the bait. Jacoby’s chin also bails him out of sticky situations, meaning he can stick around in the pocket and find a counter shot that hurts his opponent more than they ever could."

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't necessarily think Allen has shown anything that says he'll be out of his depth or whatever. But it still fair to point out that there's some unproven aspects of him that justify him being the dog. It IS a big step up in competition. He's never gone past 3 rounds and he's fighting a guy who has crazy cardio and output that's only fought 5 rounders for the past decade or so.

If your stats that you accumulate include opponent rating which I'm pretty sure you've said they do, it has to be a factor here doesn't it? Not the only one of course, but it's not insignificant.

I get that you're predicting this is gonna be sort of a changing of the guard type fight, and you could be right. I just think this type of line is justified for Max given his track record vs everyone not named Volk.

its factor for sure, but it applies mostly when the weaker opponents give him lots of resistance. Like when you saw Yanez get beat by Font, we all knew Yanez struggled with lesser competition vs Costa and so we had something to go by. Allen has passed the test with Hooker and Cattar(despite the tko injury) he was winning that one. So we can at least just bet the value side and go for broke. Yes it's risky but Allen isn't going to let me down, he's a high skilled worker fighting for my money.

 

[jnes]

its factor for sure, but it applies mostly when the weaker opponents give him lots of resistance. Like when you saw Yanez get beat by Font, we all knew Yanez struggled with lesser competition vs Costa and so we had something to go by. Allen has passed the test with Hooker and Cattar(despite the tko injury) he was winning that one. So we can at least just bet the value side and go for broke. Yes it's risky but Allen isn't going to let me down, he's a high skilled worker fighting for my money.

I mean the Hooker and Kattar fights barely show us anything. Hooker was a walking dead man at 145 and looked awful and slow, and Kattar is a slow starter that gives away round 1 to pretty much everyone. Allen did win that round but it barely means anything against a guy like Kattar who starts slow and gets much better the longer the fight goes. Allen has slowed and looked gassy in the past and now he's fighting a cardio buzzsaw. His last full performance that we can judge is Sodiq Yusuff back in 2021 which is a good win, but nowhere close to Max level. I really like Allen and his style, he's great everywhere but this is a huge step up. People think Max looked bad vs Volk, but that's Volk. I haven't seen anyone other than Volk beat Max and I think I need to see it to believe it. I think this fight is gonna be a pass for me. I'll enjoy it as a fan.

 

[Tebowned]

I haven't seen anyone other than Volk beat Max and I think I need to see it to believe it. .

Here's some refreshers.





Lost to Dennis Bermudez too but I thought Max won. Beat Leonard Garcia but I thought Leonard won.
http://mmadecisions.com/decision/4248/Dennis-Bermudez-vs-Max-Holloway
http://mmadecisions.com/decision/3874/Max-Holloway-vs-Leonard-Garcia


In seriousness, I'll play small on Allen because I like Max and hope Max wins.

 

[mkess101]

its factor for sure, but it applies mostly when the weaker opponents give him lots of resistance. Like when you saw Yanez get beat by Font, we all knew Yanez struggled with lesser competition vs Costa and so we had something to go by. Allen has passed the test with Hooker and Cattar(despite the tko injury) he was winning that one. So we can at least just bet the value side and go for broke. Yes it's risky but Allen isn't going to let me down, he's a high skilled worker fighting for my money.

Good luck. I'm staying away from either side barring a big line swing. You're definitely live, I just don't see much value either way.

 

[jnes]

Here's some refreshers.





Lost to Dennis Bermudez too but I thought Max won. Beat Leonard Garcia but I thought Leonard won.
http://mmadecisions.com/decision/4248/Dennis-Bermudez-vs-Max-Holloway
http://mmadecisions.com/decision/3874/Max-Holloway-vs-Leonard-Garcia


In seriousness, I'll play small on Allen because I like Max and hope Max wins.

Fight was 155, Dustin is a 155 all time great and had his best performance ever that fight, I also bet Dustin that night. I'm talking current Featherweight Max Holloway, who hasn't lost to anyone at the weight a part from Goatanovski since fuckin 2013. He could be on the decline, but I haven't seen it yet and I need to see more from Allen.

 

[Bakayoko]

I mean the Hooker and Kattar fights barely show us anything. Hooker was a walking dead man at 145 and looked awful and slow, and Kattar is a slow starter that gives away round 1 to pretty much everyone. Allen did win that round but it barely means anything against a guy like Kattar who starts slow and gets much better the longer the fight goes. Allen has slowed and looked gassy in the past and now he's fighting a cardio buzzsaw. His last full performance that we can judge is Sodiq Yusuff back in 2021 which is a good win, but nowhere close to Max level. I really like Allen and his style, he's great everywhere but this is a huge step up. People think Max looked bad vs Volk, but that's Volk. I haven't seen anyone other than Volk beat Max and I think I need to see it to believe it. I think this fight is gonna be a pass for me. I'll enjoy it as a fan.

True.But it's clear Allen has improved a tone.Seems like people still hold him for the guy who fought Mads Burnell.He's better now.

 

[Tebowned]

Fight was 155, Dustin is a 155 all time great and had his best performance ever that fight, I also bet Dustin that night. I'm talking current Featherweight Max Holloway, who hasn't lost to anyone at the weight a part from Goatanovski since fuckin 2013. He could be on the decline, but I haven't seen it yet and I need to see more from Allen.

It's not that serious haha.

I quoted you saying "I haven't seen anyone other than Volk beat Max and I think I need to see it to believe it. "

So I mentioned 3 145lbs losses(from 10 years ago) and 1 155lbs loss.

 

[jnes]

True.But it's clear Allen has improved a tone.Seems like people still hold him for the guy who fought Mads Burnell.He's better now.

I rate Allen as a top 5 FW. The thing with FW is there is the top 5, then there is Max and Volk. I rate Allen high and would pick him confidently over anyone not named those 2.

 

[mkess101]

I rate Allen as a top 5 FW. The thing with FW is there is the top 5, then there is Max and Volk. I rate Allen high and would pick him confidently over anyone not named those 2.

I'd maybe pick him over Yair, but I can't say I'd be all that confident.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I mean the Hooker and Kattar fights barely show us anything. Hooker was a walking dead man at 145 and looked awful and slow, and Kattar is a slow starter that gives away round 1 to pretty much everyone. Allen did win that round but it barely means anything against a guy like Kattar who starts slow and gets much better the longer the fight goes. Allen has slowed and looked gassy in the past and now he's fighting a cardio buzzsaw. His last full performance that we can judge is Sodiq Yusuff back in 2021 which is a good win, but nowhere close to Max level. I really like Allen and his style, he's great everywhere but this is a huge step up. People think Max looked bad vs Volk, but that's Volk. I haven't seen anyone other than Volk beat Max and I think I need to see it to believe it. I think this fight is gonna be a pass for me. I'll enjoy it as a fan.

It's a test for sure, but I think Allen is hungrier, Max has already tasted glory. And he took a beating from Volk. This could easily be Furguson/Charles after Furguson got demolished by Gaethje.

Max likely wont be the same after that.

 

[mkess101]

It's a test for sure, but I think Allen is hungrier, Max has already tasted glory. And he took a beating from Volk. This could easily be Furguson/Charles after Furguson got demolished by Gaethje.

Max likely wont be the same after that.

It could be, but remember Max is 31, Tony was 37. That's a huge difference, esp at the lower weight classes. And while Max obviously has mileage, Tony's crazy training, fight style, cutting weight multiple times in a month...all the stuff that made him great in his prime also gave him one of the fastest declines ever. His body just said "No more, dude."

I really don't think Max is there yet.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Was thinking of betting Allen, but the more I have looked in to it the more I think that i'll just pass on the fight and enjoy it.
Perhaps i'll put some prop bets down but probably stay away from any money line bets.

I don't trust the cardio of Allen enough to bet him.

 

[Guld]

Max has been eating too many hard shots to the head for a long ass time now. His chin could crack any day now. Allen hits hard enough to crack most good chins, let alone compromised ones. Max has been talking about how hard the weight cut is for him, and hard weight cuts make it easer to go to sleep.

On the other hand, going 5 rounds with primarily striking FWs is what Max does. He's been so good at it for so long. He has the ability to tough through it, and he knows 100% how to manage the cardio/output etc. and typically leaves his opponent a beaten mess.

I think the smart play is to put a small bet on the dog (Allen in this case) and/or bet on it going over 2.5rds. At the end of Rd3 (if it lasts that long) if Allen is showing any signs of slowing down, or if Max already has a round or two in the bag, then it's time to go heavy on Max at that point.

 

[mkess101]

Max has been eating too many hard shots to the head for a long ass time now. His chin could crack any day now. Allen hits hard enough to crack most good chins, let alone compromised ones. Max has been talking about how hard the weight cut is for him, and hard weight cuts make it easer to go to sleep.

On the other hand, going 5 rounds with primarily striking FWs is what Max does. He's been so good at it for so long. He has the ability to tough through it, and he knows 100% how to manage the cardio/output etc. and typically leaves his opponent a beaten mess.

I think the smart play is to put a small bet on the dog (Allen in this case) and/or bet on it going over 2.5rds. At the end of Rd3 (if it lasts that long) if Allen is showing any signs of slowing down, or if Max already has a round or two in the bag, then it's time to go heavy on Max at that point.

I'm not saying Allen doesn't have some pop...but I kinda feel like this narrative is being built of him being some monstrous hitter at 145. I don't think he has prime Jeremy Stephens power, or even Josh Emmett power necessarily. Kattar blew out his knee, so that TKO has nothing to do with Allen's power. The Hooker KO was impressive but that was a shell of Hooker who looked like death trying to make 145. Outside that, Allen had 8 UFC fights prior. His 2 finishes in those fights were by guillotine, and every other fight went to decision. Meza, Amirkahni, Melendez, Lentz, Rinaldi, Super Sadiq...all these guys went the distance with him. Obviously Allen's overall game has improved, but I'd be skeptical that he all of a sudden became some sort of 145 lb white Ngannou where he hits guys and they just crumble.

Meanwhile, Max has 30 pro fights and has been finished by strikes...never. In fact I don't remember him really ever even being in big trouble via strikes to where it looked like a finish was coming. And that's vs guys like 2013 Conor, who knocked out EVERY other FW he fought in his title run. So to be betting on Allen finding a KO, imo you REALLY gotta think Max's chin has somehow reached that breaking point. But even in this most recent lopsided loss to Volk where Max was beaten up pretty good, his chin never looked in danger of cracking.

Just something to think about.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I'm not saying Allen doesn't have some pop...but I kinda feel like this narrative is being built of him being some monstrous hitter at 145. I don't think he has prime Jeremy Stephens power, or even Josh Emmett power necessarily. Kattar blew out his knee, so that TKO has nothing to do with Allen's power. The Hooker KO was impressive but that was a shell of Hooker who looked like death trying to make 145. Outside that, Allen had 8 UFC fights prior. His 2 finishes in those fights were by guillotine, and every other fight went to decision. Meza, Amirkahni, Melendez, Lentz, Rinaldi, Super Sadiq...all these guys went the distance with him. Obviously Allen's overall game has improved, but I'd be skeptical that he all of a sudden became some sort of 145 lb white Ngannou where he hits guys and they just crumble.

Meanwhile, Max has 30 pro fights and has been finished by strikes...never. In fact I don't remember him really ever even being in big trouble via strikes to where it looked like a finish was coming. And that's vs guys like 2013 Conor, who knocked out EVERY other FW he fought in his title run. So to be betting on Allen finding a KO, imo you REALLY gotta think Max's chin has somehow reached that breaking point. But even in this most recent lopsided loss to Volk where Max was beaten up pretty good, his chin never looked in danger of cracking.

Just something to think about.

Very valid points both on the chin of Max and the power of Allen. Couldn't agree more.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm not saying Allen doesn't have some pop...but I kinda feel like this narrative is being built of him being some monstrous hitter at 145. I don't think he has prime Jeremy Stephens power, or even Josh Emmett power necessarily. Kattar blew out his knee, so that TKO has nothing to do with Allen's power. The Hooker KO was impressive but that was a shell of Hooker who looked like death trying to make 145. Outside that, Allen had 8 UFC fights prior. His 2 finishes in those fights were by guillotine, and every other fight went to decision. Meza, Amirkahni, Melendez, Lentz, Rinaldi, Super Sadiq...all these guys went the distance with him. Obviously Allen's overall game has improved, but I'd be skeptical that he all of a sudden became some sort of 145 lb white Ngannou where he hits guys and they just crumble.

Meanwhile, Max has 30 pro fights and has been finished by strikes...never. In fact I don't remember him really ever even being in big trouble via strikes to where it looked like a finish was coming. And that's vs guys like 2013 Conor, who knocked out EVERY other FW he fought in his title run. So to be betting on Allen finding a KO, imo you REALLY gotta think Max's chin has somehow reached that breaking point. But even in this most recent lopsided loss to Volk where Max was beaten up pretty good, his chin never looked in danger of cracking.

Just something to think about.

he probably won't get chinned. But if we simply set the criteria for betting against Max to be anyone with a close opponent rating, the pool of fighters is narrowed down to Volk and maybe Rodriguez again. We can't default pick Max because of his resume, I see Allen hits the mark in the sense he beats the mid level guys soundly. He was briefly stunned and recovered quickly by Hooker during his flurry exchange, but never knocked down in any fight i've seen. Striking wise, he is a little faster than Max, he slips punches a lot better, and he's a little more methodical when he throws. He also imo has a better straight punch , it has more power, where max is a volume striker. Take also the striking defense, Allen doesn't get hit often.

 

[JC615]

They straight-up also might just give a close fight to the American fighter over the British fighter. I may have to sprinkle 50 cents on the draw on this one.