UFC Fight Night - Sandhagen vs Dillashaw- Offical discussion

[Kazda1]

Is anyone overlooking Gall against Williams?

Gall strikes me as the type of guy who doesn't really have a game so to speak for some reason.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Is anyone overlooking Gall against Williams?

Gall strikes me as the type of guy who doesn't really have a game so to speak for some reason.

He has a wrestling edge and bjj advantage. He tapped a brown belt out, he could submit a guy like Jordan. He is a good value bet, and a good submission method bet.

 

[Shelter]

Got the jitters and cashed out of my large Brendan Allen bet. Between the article that came out about him considering retiring (at 25!) before his last fight against Roberson, the fact that he seems to have had some trouble with the weight cut (185.5 but really took his time about it), and the sheer number of posters and outlets thinking Soriano takes this one, I'm less sure than I was.

Still going to put a small bet on him just for the sake of fun.

 

[Thesnake101]

Is anyone overlooking Gall against Williams?

Gall strikes me as the type of guy who doesn't really have a game so to speak for some reason.

Jordan has pretty much made his game by outlasting guys and hurting them on the feet, his win over Gregory Rodrigues and that close decision against Kuramagomedov make me feel confident in his chances against Gall.

Mickey struggled against a low-level guy like Touahri, whom he dwarfed, and most recently got thoroughly outgrappled by the worst iteration of Mike Perry. I think this is the last we see of Gall in the UFC.

 

[mkess101]

not super likely but I could see him catching tj in a choke after rocking him.

Happens all the time

Exactly. If I could get +1200 lines on "super likely" props, I'd be a billionaire by now LMAO.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Exactly. If I could get +1200 lines on "super likely" props, I'd be a billionaire by now LMAO.

And if you bet .33u on every random +1200 that has no chance of hitting, you throw away profit for the sake of hope. No bueno if you wanna be a baller shot caller

 

[mkess101]

Na don't be enabler. This is ridiculously low percentage, much lower than the price tag + risk.


Prob like 3-5 times. But to be fair most the of those came after dummies couldn't take a noob sounding smarter than them and came at me without checking my sig

Sometimes people just disagree on the likelihood of an outcome. I didn't "come after you" here, I just said I disagree on Corey's chances of subbing TJ. I think it's 10%, maybe a little higher. You think it's 0%. So we disagree, that's all.

And for some reason you're now saying I came at you?

 

[mkess101]

And if you bet .33u on every random +1200 that has no chance of hitting, you throw away profit for the sake of hope. No bueno if you wanna be a baller shot caller

And that's the thing. We just disagree on what the chances are that it hits. Which is gonna happen, right?

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Sometimes people just disagree on the likelihood of an outcome. I didn't "come after you" here, I just said I disagree on Corey's chances of subbing TJ. I think it's 10%, maybe a little higher. You think it's 0%. So we disagree, that's all.

And for some reason you're now saying I came at you?

Didn't say you did. Was just answering the man, never said you specifically.

And that's the thing. We just disagree on what the chances are that it hits. Which is gonna happen, right?

Sure. I feel there is zero evidence to support a .33u play on a +1600 line that requires a Sandhagen guard sub after a TJ td (hes not going for a sub if he rocks TJ, the other guy is just giving random "what ifs" which is why I said don't be an enabler)

You are welcome to blow your money, and I am welcome to say how NO ONE should be betting this way if they wanna be a baller shot caller

 

[mkess101]

Didn't say you did. Was just answering the man, never said you specifically.


Sure. I feel there is zero evidence to support a .33u play on a +1600 line that requires a Sandhagen guard sub after a TJ td (hes not going for a sub if he rocks TJ, the other guy is just giving random "what ifs" which is why I said don't be an enabler)

You are welcome to blow your money, and I am welcome to say how NO ONE should be betting this way if they wanna be a baller shot caller

Why would he not go for a sub if he rocks him? I guess I'm confused why you think that's not possible? Corey likes to sub hunt. And again, if TJ tires and shoots a sloppy TD against a fresher Corey, his neck could be in play. It's not necessarily guard sub only imo.

I mean, if the chances of it hitting are 0% like you claim, what were the chances of Fluffy subbing Viera LOL? Negative a million percent? What about Rothwell subbing Barnett?

IDK, we just disagree and that's fine, not mad at ya bud.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Why would he not go for a sub if he rocks him? I guess I'm confused why you think that's not possible? Corey likes to sub hunt. And again, if TJ tires and shoots a sloppy TD against a fresher Corey, his neck could be in play. It's not necessarily guard sub only imo.

I mean, if the chances of it hitting are 0% like you claim, what were the chances of Fluffy subbing Viera LOL? Negative a million percent? What about Rothwell subbing Barnett?

IDK, we just disagree and that's fine, not mad at ya bud.

Cause hes not that type of fighter. He is going to go for the KO, like he always does. Do you have one piece of evidence of him rocking someone and then going for a sub?

He likes to sub hunt vs Mario Bautista. Thats it. Hes going to work back to the feet when hes taken down, cause hes well aware Dillashaw isn't Mario Bautista. Same way he was aware Moraes and Assuncao aren't Bautista, so he worked to get up

Horrible example when Vieira was dead tired. Is that what you're hoping for? TJ to get dead tired?

Of course we disagree. I'm in the money making game. You don't make money betting 1/3 unit on random lines

 

[mkess101]

Cause hes not that type of fighter. He is going to go for the KO, like he always does. Do you have one piece of evidence of him rocking someone and then going for a sub?

He likes to sub hunt vs Mario Bautista. Thats it. Hes going to work back to the feet when hes taken down, cause hes well aware Dillashaw isn't Mario Bautista. Same way he was aware Moraes and Assuncao aren't Bautista, so he worked to get up

Horrible example when Vieira was dead tired. Is that what you're hoping for? TJ to get dead tired?

Of course we disagree. I'm in the money making game. You don't make money betting 1/3 unit on random lines

Well I already said TJ in a 5 round fight with no EPO off a long layoff could very potentially get really tired and have referenced him shooting a sloppy TD and leaving his neck exposed. So yeah, I do think that's one potential path to it hitting.

I've made $ over the years betting MMA, you can believe that or not. Never felt the need to track 3rd party because it's just extra time invested, but I do see the value of doing it for someone who's extremely serious and betting to make a living.

 

[mkess101]

Yeah so again. You're betting a lotto line with "what if?" hopes. "What if TJ did EPO and it effects him so much he gets so tired Sandhagen gets a sub like Fluffy Hernandez did?!" Thats not how ballers shot callers operate.

Tbh everyone who takes this serious enough to bet or look into betting every event should be tracking. Not just so forum cunts who wanna rag on a noob (not you!) have to stfu, but for things like this. .33u is not a small amount. Tracking would give you an idea of how much is lost putting that much on these types of lines and only help you improve through assessment

Meh, I'm assessing likelihoods and betting based on how I see them. TJ is a wrestler but nowhere near the sub threat of a Barao or Moraes so yeah I think if Corey rocks him it's possible he'd grab a sub if it's there.

As for tracking, I barely have time to watch tape and I'm not betting amounts that are significant to my life at all. I agree it's a good idea, just one that I can't find time to do.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Meh, I'm assessing likelihoods and betting based on how I see them. TJ is a wrestler but nowhere near the sub threat of a Barao or Moraes so yeah I think if Corey rocks him it's possible he'd grab a sub if it's there.

As for tracking, I barely have time to watch tape and I'm not betting amounts that are significant to my life at all. I agree it's a good idea, just one that I can't find time to do.

He doesn't have to be a sub threat, he just has to know how to defend subs. And then when he starts sweating profusely, he just has to know how to defend subs at a half measure of whatever you're expecting Sand to throw up from bottom. If you genuinely think you've found a capping edge on this line, idk what to tell you. You could've come to me and I would've given you +1600 on Sandhagen sub attempts o1.5, nvm him finishing one.

Tape is for the pretentious, pompous, newer fans, or of course fights that involve someone you haven't seen much of, but it really means nothing otherwise dependent on how long you've watched MMA. Its why I get a good laugh at Paul "omg Chiasson hit this inside heel hook sweep on Reneau let me jot it down into my intrinsic notes to help Sherdog out" Varelans. I'm inarguably high level, and I don't tape a lot of things. All you have to do is program your mind to think of paths to victory and how you correlate likelihood compared to a line, not watch hours and hours of tape thinking you're getting some magical edge.

Smh @ not betting a significant amount. How am I supposed to make this place the Bugatti Boys Club if we don't up these unit sizes?

 

[mkess101]

He doesn't have to be a sub threat, he just has to know how to defend subs. And then when he starts sweating profusely, he just has to know how to defend subs at a half measure of whatever you're expecting Sand to throw up from bottom. If you genuinely think you've found a capping edge on this line, idk what to tell you. You could've come to me and I would've given you +1600 on Sandhagen sub attempts o1.5, nvm him finishing one.

Tape is for the pretentious, pompous, newer fans, or of course fights that involve someone you haven't seen much of, but it really means nothing otherwise dependent on how long you've watched MMA. Its why I get a good laugh at Paul "omg Chiasson hit this inside heel hook sweep on Reneau let me jot it down into my intrinsic notes to help Sherdog out" Varelans. I'm inarguably high level, and I don't tape a lot of things. All you have to do is program your mind to think of paths to victory and how you correlate likelihood compared to a line, not watch hours and hours of tape thinking you're getting some magical edge.

Smh @ not betting a significant amount. How am I supposed to make this place the Bugatti Boys Club if we don't up these unit sizes?

Well we've kinda talked the line to death haha so we can move on from that specific Convo.

As for taping, my memory isn't good enough to remember a lot of what I've seen (remember I'm old) so it does help me recall stuff from fighters that I've seen a bit of but can't remember all that well. I don't think it's always necessary or the thing to cling to, but it can be a useful tool.

And bro...my risk tolerance is damn low. I live in the Midwest in a big newer house and drive a luxury car. My wife and I make good $. I'm happy. Betting is a hobby to me. If you make monster amounts and can hop on private jets to see the fights and shit, fucking awesome for you. You've got it figured out then. I got limited awhile back, but I was really only betting hundreds then, not thousands. So for me, I'm fine being middle aged suburban dad now that can win or lose a few hundred or maybe a grand on a card and not care all. When I get to Vegas yeah I'll up the amount I play if I like any lines but these days that's maybe once a year, twice tops.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Well we've kinda talked the line to death haha so we can move on from that specific Convo.

As for taping, my memory isn't good enough to remember a lot of what I've seen (remember I'm old) so it does help me recall stuff from fighters that I've seen a bit of but can't remember all that well. I don't think it's always necessary or the thing to cling to, but it can be a useful tool.

And bro...my risk tolerance is damn low. I live in the Midwest in a big newer house and drive a luxury car. My wife and I make good $. I'm happy. Betting is a hobby to me. If you make monster amounts and can hop on private jets to see the fights and shit, fucking awesome for you. You've got it figured out then. I got limited awhile back, but I was really only betting hundreds then, not thousands. So for me, I'm fine being middle aged suburban dad now that can win or lose a few hundred or maybe a grand on a card and not care all. When I get to Vegas yeah I'll up the amount I play if I like any lines but these days that's maybe once a year, twice tops.

It should be a hobby to everyone unless/until you have 50k or more in liquid and years of consistent results. Gotta light that fire under your old ass and realize being a hobby shouldn't mean you shouldn't take it as serious as possible. Especially your main hobby, and more especially if it involves dollars. I have plenty of skill required hobbies and i'd be much more trash at all of them if I was passive on improving. And don't worry about limits, if gambling isn't legal in your state its only a matter of time.

All i'm trying to do is help your kids never have to work via big money units placed on amazing bets like Aspen Ladd cause u take this game as serious as parenting

 

[Card]

Everyone made weight.

 

[svmr_db]

Who does everyone think are the most live underdogs on this card? (Outside the main event)

I'd go with Brendan Allen & Mickey Gall, both for similar reasons. Soriano will go full tilt from the opening bell searching for the finish, which he may get. But if he doesn't he may get gassed out and subbed by Allen. Same thing with Jordan Williams, he's actually fighting at welterweight finally after fighting at middleweight recently due to his diabetes. His gas tank looked awful the longer the fight went vs Imavov, and especially now that he's cutting weight I think Mickey has a real chance to sub him if he can survive the early rounds.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Sandhagen sub +1200, yep playing that for sure.

I dont hate it go for it. But i hope you didn't put it in a parley. Betting parleys last year for me have hurt me a in a way i prefer to bet singles only now. Either two singles.

 

[Stat_Collector]

He doesn't have to be a sub threat, he just has to know how to defend subs. And then when he starts sweating profusely, he just has to know how to defend subs at a half measure of whatever you're expecting Sand to throw up from bottom. If you genuinely think you've found a capping edge on this line, idk what to tell you. You could've come to me and I would've given you +1600 on Sandhagen sub attempts o1.5, nvm him finishing one.

Tape is for the pretentious, pompous, newer fans, or of course fights that involve someone you haven't seen much of, but it really means nothing otherwise dependent on how long you've watched MMA. Its why I get a good laugh at Paul "omg Chiasson hit this inside heel hook sweep on Reneau let me jot it down into my intrinsic notes to help Sherdog out" Varelans. I'm inarguably high level, and I don't tape a lot of things. All you have to do is program your mind to think of paths to victory and how you correlate likelihood compared to a line, not watch hours and hours of tape thinking you're getting some magical edge.

Smh @ not betting a significant amount. How am I supposed to make this place the Bugatti Boys Club if we don't up these unit sizes?

Its not hours of tape, its called ufcstats.

you can see revesals. Ctrl time etc.

aspen ladd is not a good pick. She admitted she had to relearn everything after knee surgery, she absorbs to many strikes in every fight ,avg 5 mins ctrl time and hasn’t fought since 2019. If you had three options to play, you either pass on Aspen or go With Macy , picking aspen at -180 to -200 is the square pick.

There are safer picks in this card that you could replace lad with. While im not high on macy ‘this is still a close competetive fight with no finish , but a close decision.

I really never understood why you like aspen so much, her striking is below basic and she has no colligiate wrestling background. I mean she could win , but by how dominant a performance?