UFC Fight Night - Sandhagen vs Dillashaw- Offical discussion

Kazda1 said:
Does anyone have a read on the Belbita/Goldy fight?
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Don't bet it at current odds. If you were around when Belbita was around +150, it was worth a stab.

Both fighters suck, but with Belbita being off for 1 year and Goldy 2 years, and their relatively young ages and lack of experience, there is significant potential for improvement. And ultimately, the fight will be decided by the degree and nature of said improvement.

Unless you've been observing one or either of them in the gym, you have no way of knowing this vital information. Now, Belbita has the slightly higher upside here; she is younger, has shown more significant improvement in her last few fights, and her striking, flawed as it is, is a little better. On the flipside, Goldy had 2 years to get better, not just 1, and isn't as clearly deficient in the grappling department.

Which is the big fear; Belbita's wrestling and BJJ are both dreadful. Goldy has stuck to striking against her opponents, but what if she improved her offensive grappling in that time and uses it? It's not completely crazy, considering she entered a submission event a few months ago and won by RNC. It would take very little to utterly dominate and possibly even tap Belbita.

Or maybe Belbita defeats Goldy easily with better striking and grappling is never an issue?

Belbita making 115 for the first time, despite being fairly tall and skinny at 125 is also cause for concern.

Again, give it a pass.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
aspen ladd is aspen madd fight vs chiasson is cancelled, all those arguments in previous pages for nothing.
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I used to think that way, but not anymore. There's always intrinsic value in taping and analyzing fights, even if they don't get rebooked, which they frequently do. I now have a better sense of Chiasson and Ladd than I did before, and both will have many, many more bouts with lines on them.
 
Kazda1 said:
Has anyone mentioned anything about this fight?

I'm noticing Belbita transitioning to the favorite. I can't believe I actually thought at one point Belbita would beat Jojua.
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Battle of the bottom tier fighters. You're pretty much betting on which one will screw up worse and find a way to lose first, and boy are they both ever good at failing. You've got the holy trinity of low skill, poor fight IQ, and long layoffs since their last fights, it's likely to be a hot mess.
 
TJ +170 is fucking crazy imo. I am so tempted to his this massively. Lay off holding me back but if this price keeps drifting I’m gonna take a big shot.
 
StewDogg11 said:
This makes no sense. I’ve seen multiple fighters who’ve won via decision be worth way more than fighters who’ve won via finish. Kennedy Nzechukwu for example in his last fight was only worth like 50 points even though he got a finish.
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I'm not saying it's likely to happen but more so, if it does happen - you're screwed if you ignore it sort of thing is all. FWIW I agree with you.
 
I think people will be surprised with TJ's performance this weekend. He's still clearly in great shape and highly motivated. He may not look as good as his peak in some people's opinions, but that could be just due to age and not necessarily not having the EPO, everyone seems ready to pin any decline in performance on the lack of drugs. I do believe he was most likely juicing long before the Cejudo fight, but like he said they did re-test a bunch of his old samples and they didn't pop him for EPO on those old fights.

I think the value is gone on Sandhagen by now. I also think the fight will sway Dillashaw's way the longer it goes, we haven't had to see Sandhagen make round to round adjustments in his fights given how short the last 3 have been. If the fight goes to the championship rounds you know it's probably going to be leaning Dillashaw. Dillashaw has a history of coming through as a big underdog when he's basically been counted out. (+700 vs Barao, +180 vs Garbrandt the first time) If there's any fighter on the roster who would stay hungry, motivated and sharp after serious time off it's Dillashaw imo. This fight just gives me flashbacks to how so many people wrote off Ortega in his return fight vs Zombie.

Also of note, I believe the narrative some have discussed of Dillashaw's "weak chin" are totally overblown. No shame on getting finished by Dodson (hard hitter for the weight class) and as far as the Cejudo fight, everyone knows Dillashaw was not physically ready for a fight that night. He absolutely starved himself down to make the weight class and I'm sure everyone has seen the pictures of him looking like death for that weight cut.
 
svmr_db said:
I think people will be surprised with TJ's performance this weekend. He's still clearly in great shape and highly motivated. He may not look as good as his peak in some people's opinions, but that could be just due to age and not necessarily not having the EPO, everyone seems ready to pin any decline in performance on the lack of drugs. I do believe he was most likely juicing long before the Cejudo fight, but like he said they did re-test a bunch of his old samples and they didn't pop him for EPO on those old fights.

I think the value is gone on Sandhagen by now. I also think the fight will sway Dillashaw's way the longer it goes, we haven't had to see Sandhagen make round to round adjustments in his fights given how short the last 3 have been. If the fight goes to the championship rounds you know it's probably going to be leaning Dillashaw. Dillashaw has a history of coming through as a big underdog when he's basically been counted out. (+700 vs Barao, +180 vs Garbrandt the first time) If there's any fighter on the roster who would stay hungry, motivated and sharp after serious time off it's Dillashaw imo. This fight just gives me flashbacks to how so many people wrote off Ortega in his return fight vs Zombie.

Also of note, I believe the narrative some have discussed of Dillashaw's "weak chin" are totally overblown. No shame on getting finished by Dodson (hard hitter for the weight class) and as far as the Cejudo fight, everyone knows Dillashaw was not physically ready for a fight that night. He absolutely starved himself down to make the weight class and I'm sure everyone has seen the pictures of him looking like death for that weight cut.
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While I agree that maybe the value is gone from Corey here (I bet him at -170 but above -200 I think I'd pass), I can't agree with the T City comparison. Ortega is 5 years younger and really hadn't made any noticeable strides with his striking game prior to his fight with KZ. His "big leap" was quite obviously when he got beaten down by Max and decided he'd better put in the work to become a sharp and dangerous striker. TJ made his leap years ago prior to the first Barao fight. If there's a comparison, I'd say it would be TJ/Barao 1 has similarities to Ortega/KZ in that they were eye opening performances that completely changed how we viewed the winning fighters.

It's hard for me to imagine we haven't already seen the best of TJ years ago. Maybe I'm wrong, but I really do think Corey gets it done here and pretty emphatically.
 
Sandhagen sub +1200, yep playing that for sure.
 
DogsAndKisses said:
Where is the dislike button? This should be the line for him to even attempt a sub
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What? He's super active off his back. Subbed Batista with an armbar. And TJ off the EPO. Easily could see him slow down late and get sloppy and leave his neck out there on a half assed TD attempt if he's getting pieced up standing.

You're really shitting on a very small stab at a +1200 prop LOL? I mean, it's inherently unlikely to hit at these odds so I guess it's an easy "I told you so" for you when it doesn't...
 
mkess101 said:
What? He's super active off his back. Subbed Batista with an armbar. And TJ off the EPO. Easily could see him slow down late and get sloppy and leave his neck out there on a half assed TD attempt if he's getting pieced up standing.

You're really shitting on a very small stab at a +1200 prop LOL? I mean, it's inherently unlikely to hit at these odds so I guess it's an easy "I told you so" for you when it doesn't...
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Hes not subbing TJ bro. And yes, i'm shitting on it, cause this isn't a lottery. Its not going to happen, plays like this are just throwing money away cause you see +1xxx line and think "what if?" when there is zero plausible reason behind it
 
DogsAndKisses said:
Hes not subbing TJ bro. And yes, i'm shitting on it, cause this isn't a lottery. Its not going to happen, plays like this are just throwing money away cause you see +1xxx line and think "what if?" when there is zero plausible reason behind it
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Well I disagree with you on the implied odds. The analysis of "he's not subbing him brah" is great I guess...?

I cap Sandhagen around -200. So out of 100 fights I have him around 67 wins. I'd break that down (given the questions surrounding TJ) roughly KO 30-35ish, Dec 20-25ish, sub 10-15ish.

Just how I see it. But like I said, since even me saying it's maybe a 10-15% chance of hitting means it's inherently unlikely, even I agree it's likely not to hit so you'll likely get to say how wrong I was after.
 
mkess101 said:
Well I disagree with you on the implied odds. The analysis of "he's not subbing him brah" is great I guess...?

I cap Sandhagen around -200. So out of 100 fights I have him around 67 wins. I'd break that down (given the questions surrounding TJ) roughly KO 30-35ish, Dec 20-25ish, sub 10-15ish.

Just how I see it. But like I said, since even me saying it's maybe a 10-15% chance of hitting means it's inherently unlikely, even I agree it's likely not to hit so you'll likely get to say how wrong I was after.
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Yeah, its great, cause thats how its gonna go. Hes not even gonna attempt a sub. Lmfao @ you expecting me to give some pretentious paul varelans breakdown as to why you're trying to hit a lottery number rather than make a smart play, like cmon.

Hes never subbing TJ. Not 10-15 times, not even one time. You're praying for a TJ td to guard sub. And you're risking .33u on that extremely narrow outcome. Bad betting.

And this childish "youll say "im right and you were wrong" after" needs to stop. I'm a proven high level gambler, not some forum pissing match person who does so.
 
mkess101 said:
Well I disagree with you on the implied odds. The analysis of "he's not subbing him brah" is great I guess...?

I cap Sandhagen around -200. So out of 100 fights I have him around 67 wins. I'd break that down (given the questions surrounding TJ) roughly KO 30-35ish, Dec 20-25ish, sub 10-15ish.

Just how I see it. But like I said, since even me saying it's maybe a 10-15% chance of hitting means it's inherently unlikely, even I agree it's likely not to hit so you'll likely get to say how wrong I was after.
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not super likely but I could see him catching tj in a choke after rocking him.

Happens all the time
 
DogsAndKisses said:
Yeah, its great, cause thats how its gonna go. Hes not even gonna attempt a sub. Lmfao @ you expecting me to give some pretentious paul varelans breakdown as to why you're trying to hit a lottery number rather than make a smart play, like cmon.

Hes never subbing TJ. Not 10-15 times, not even one time. You're praying for a TJ td to guard sub. And you're risking .33u on that extremely narrow outcome. Bad betting.

And this childish "youll say "im right and you were wrong" after" needs to stop. I'm a proven high level gambler, not some forum pissing match person who does so.
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How many times do you think you’ve told everyone that you’re a high level gambler?
 
rille31 said:
not super likely but I could see him catching tj in a choke after rocking him.

Happens all the time
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Na don't be enabler. This is ridiculously low percentage, much lower than the price tag + risk.

Captain Chesapeake said:
How many times do you think you’ve told everyone that you’re a high level gambler?
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Prob like 3-5 times. But to be fair most the of those came after dummies couldn't take a noob sounding smarter than them and came at me without checking my sig
 
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