UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Hernandez

[Stat_Collector]

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3513

UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Hernandez | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC Fight Night takes place Saturday, October 19, 2024 with 11 fights at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

www.tapology.com

 

[Stat_Collector]

took early lines Pereira 125+ 300 staked

I dont see a wide enough edge for Hernandez just by grappling alone. Pereira has underrated grappling. And on the feet he schools him.

 

[Thesnake101]

Charles is a lock against Su, might look into his sub prop due to how worthless Su is on the mat.

Nicolau could spell trouble for Asu if his chin holds up. Really good TDD and good enough on the feet to outpoint someone with a meat and potatoes game.

Elkins at dog odds vs a gassy, willing grappler in Pineda is a must play for me. Both are washed up and more than willing to fight through exhaustion, but Elkins made a career out of surviving sub attempts and stifling BJJ guys for the most part.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Charles is a lock against Su, might look into his sub prop due to how worthless Su is on the mat.

Nicolau could spell trouble for Asu if his chin holds up. Really good TDD and good enough on the feet to outpoint someone with a meat and potatoes game.

Elkins at dog odds vs a gassy, willing grappler in Pineda is a must play for me. Both are washed up and more than willing to fight through exhaustion, but Elkins made a career out of surviving sub attempts and stifling BJJ guys for the most part.

Charles doesn't grapple often enough, he did score two tds against Azat and could not control him, but he also got knocked down by Azat who is barely a striker. There was a brief moment Charles took Azat's back and almost synched a rear naked choke, it's possible he could get Su via rnc.

Su sub defense is bad, but he also did scramble and sweep Schnell in round one and two . He's not completely out of water on the ground, he just has the worst matchups with grapplers, so does Charles. If Charles lets his ego get in the way and turns it into a kick boxing match, Su could beat him with his south paw stance, throwing 1-2 combos and his spinning kicks, constantly attacking the lead leg with calf kicks. Su is also as big as Charles and has a 2 inch reach advantage, fights long.

I think Charles is always a good play, when he faces guys who can't wrestle, are generalist/strikers but he also has very close competitive fights with those types, split with ode loss, controversial split with Zhalgas , and was getting tagged a lot by Van before the ko in rnd 3. And Van is a short fighter with short reach and manage to tag Charles with hard punches that almost dropped him.

It's possible Charles can steamroll here , but a lot of his wins end in decision, i don't know how confident i am that he'll try to exploit his grappling and not just lose a low iq fight.

 

[Thesnake101]

Charles doesn't grapple often enough, he did score two tds against Azat and could not control him, but he also got knocked down by Azat who is barely a striker. There was a brief moment Charles took Azat's back and almost synched a rear naked choke, it's possible he could get Su via rnc.

Su sub defense is bad, but he also did scramble and sweep Schnell in round one and two . He's not completely out of water on the ground, he just has the worst matchups with grapplers, so does Charles. If Charles lets his ego get in the way and turns it into a kick boxing match, Su could beat him with his south paw stance, throwing 1-2 combos and his spinning kicks, constantly attacking the lead leg with calf kicks. Su is also as big as Charles and has a 2 inch reach advantage, fights long.

I think Charles is always a good play, when he faces guys who can't wrestle, are generalist/strikers but he also has very close competitive fights with those types, split with ode loss, controversial split with Zhalgas , and was getting tagged a lot by Van before the ko in rnd 3. And Van is a short fighter with short reach and manage to tag Charles with hard punches that almost dropped him.

It's possible Charles can steamroll here , but a lot of his wins end in decision, i don't know how confident i am that he'll try to exploit his grappling and not just lose a low iq fight.

Truth be told I think Charles is better than Su everywhere. Su had those two good performances against Andre and Gordon, but I was unimpressed with how he looked vs Adashev, and honestly in hindsight that streak is not very strong. Soukhamthath was the best guy he beat but that was a very inconsistent guy who ended up going 1-2 after that before retiring.

I think Charles has upped his aggression since the Durden fight, which was what plagued him a lot at the start of his UFC run, and honestly his decision making hasn't been bad in his more recent fights. He tried to start fast against Van and mixed in some takedown attempts even though they were unsuccessful, he neutralized Hadley's takedowns and limited the grappling exchanges and against Azat he stepped on the gas after a rough first round. Su is also one of the very few guys who could not crack Schnell's glass jaw, which is a terrible look for a striker.

Lastly, all 6 of his losses have been by submission. All, that's just terrible. It's inexcusable even.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

took early lines Pereira 125+ 300 staked

I dont see a wide enough edge for Hernandez just by grappling alone. Pereira has underrated grappling. And on the feet he schools him.

Pereira's striking advantage won't matter, just like Kopylov's didn't.

Anthony will pin him onto the fence and chain wrestle him until he breaks.

Future 185

Pereira ML is square because it's 5 rounds and there's no way he's winning a decision.

Hernandez will blow him up half through the second round like he has with all his opponents in the last 3 years since he decided to start fighting like Cain Velasquez

 

[Stat_Collector]

Truth be told I think Charles is better than Su everywhere. Su had those two good performances against Andre and Gordon, but I was unimpressed with how he looked vs Adashev, and honestly in hindsight that streak is not very strong. Soukhamthath was the best guy he beat but that was a very inconsistent guy who ended up going 1-2 after that before retiring.

I think Charles has upped his aggression since the Durden fight, which was what plagued him a lot at the start of his UFC run, and honestly his decision making hasn't been bad in his more recent fights. He tried to start fast against Van and mixed in some takedown attempts even though they were unsuccessful, he neutralized Hadley's takedowns and limited the grappling exchanges and against Azat he stepped on the gas after a rough first round. Su is also one of the very few guys who could not crack Schnell's glass jaw, which is a terrible look for a striker.

Lastly, all 6 of his losses have been by submission. All, that's just terrible. It's inexcusable even.

Adashev is a decent kick boxer, I have to rewatch that fight, i don't remember Su struggling in that one. Adashev was plagued by his size and chin, he beat Benoit who has a win on Pettis. Not exactly like Adeshev was a bum. I remember he had a k1 kickboxing title. I'm not totally impressed with Su's resume, but on tape, he doesn't look bad offensively, he has nice wheel kicks, a calf kick, and a nice one-two straight down the middle with a south paw stance.


Credit to Schnell he also survived Tyson Nam who is a heavy puncher, he's really not that bad, chinny yes, but he mixes a lot of kicks and keeps fighters guessing, Su also had him hurt badly and did drop him. Schnell had a lot of subs with triangle choke, it saved him after Su swept him on his back.


My biggest alarms with Charles is that he goes 50/50 or 60/40 in significant strikes even when he does win. Against Cody Durden he got matched on the feet, could be because of all the wrestling threw him off his game, but Su is better there than Cody, it's my problem with Charles is that he is hittable. And he can get stuck in a match of point fighting. I'll pass on a -240 ML

If Charles has a 600+ submission prop, I'll play that. but i'm expecting odds makers to cap it around 250+

I do overall favor Charles, he fought 3x in 2024 and is far busier fighter, he should probably steamroll Su here. with some risk.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Pereira's striking advantage won't matter, just like Kopylov's didn't.

Alex will pin him onto the fence and chain wrestle him until he breaks.

Future 185

Pereira ML is square because it's 5 rounds and there's no way he's winning a decision.

Alex will blow him up half through the second round like he has with all his opponents in the last 3 years since he decided to start fighting like Cain Velasquez

You're right ML is not good, Pereira should ko him inside 5. probably better line for ko prop.

 

[Guld]

took early lines Pereira 125+ 300 staked

I dont see a wide enough edge for Hernandez just by grappling alone. Pereira has underrated grappling. And on the feet he schools him.

I did the same yesterday, for the same reasons.

 

[rille31]

Rob Font +300 seems wide af

 

[rev0lver]

This might be the only time I think it's worth betting Austen Lane, and the line's only getting wider. Robelis demonstrated about zero grappling ability against a non-grappler in Waldo last time out. Lane's been incorporating offensive wrestling for a while now. If he doesn't get clipped on the way in, I could totally see him expose Robelis's grappling ability even harder.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

This might be the only time I think it's worth betting Austen Lane, and the line's only getting wider. Robelis demonstrated about zero grappling ability against a non-grappler in Waldo last time out. Lane's been incorporating offensive wrestling for a while now. If he doesn't get clipped on the way in, I could totally see him expose Robelis's grappling ability even harder.

He only has 1 round of cardio tho. Wrestled diniz in first round then death gassed and smoked in 2nd.

 

[rev0lver]

He only has 1 round of cardio tho. Wrestled diniz in first round then death gassed and smoked in 2nd.

Same with Robelis though lol. Dude was dead halfway through rd 2 against Waldo. Neither have the cardio for a wrestling bout, but the offensive one is usually the better choice in that imo.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Same with Robelis though lol. Dude was dead halfway through rd 2 against Waldo. Neither have the cardio for a wrestling bout, but the offensive one is usually the better choice in that imo.

nah robelis was outvoluming waldo at distance in round 2/3 he'll be fine to take austen out if he looking like the diniz fight again he's not going to be able to wrestle fuck for 15. i like round 2 start and 2/3 props for robelis.

 

[Thesnake101]

Same with Robelis though lol. Dude was dead halfway through rd 2 against Waldo. Neither have the cardio for a wrestling bout, but the offensive one is usually the better choice in that imo.

Lane's glass jaw is the difference maker here imo. He's been put out in all 5 of his losses, 2 of those against mediocre regional HWs, and I don't see why this one would be any different. I hope Lane is able to get a takedown early because then Robelis' odds might turn playable.

 

[Thesnake101]

Nicolau's only been taken down once in his UFC career, by Tim Elliot in a fight where he stuffed 9 takedowns. For comparison's sake Elliot took down Askarov and Ulanbekov more than once, and went 1/1 against Mokaev.

I really like Nicolau's chances here, maybe pair his ML with a KO prop hedge for Asu since that's the only ptv Nico's opponents have against him.

 

[mkess101]

Pereira's striking advantage won't matter, just like Kopylov's didn't.

Alex will pin him onto the fence and chain wrestle him until he breaks.

Future 185

Pereira ML is square because it's 5 rounds and there's no way he's winning a decision.

Hernandez will blow him up half through the second round like he has with all his opponents in the last 3 years since he decided to start fighting like Cain Velasquez

Who TF is Alex?

 

[Georges Hefner]

I’m implementing a new betting strategy.

•1 big bet per event ($1k max bet)
•Quality > quantity

Me and @DalchaLungiambula researched the main event in July and we think Aaron wins this fight 7 times out of 10. Pereira has early finish potential but realistically speaking, it’s unlikely to happen. This was back when the fight was booked as a 3 rounder. Now with 2 extra rounds being added on, we believe Pereira will pace himself making the finish less likely.

At -150 odds, there is 20% implied probability edge over the bookies.










We believe Fluffy should be -400



Aaron I mean Alex, no I mean Anthony has that granite Mexican chin andonly been finished to the body.

 

[rev0lver]

Lane's glass jaw is the difference maker here imo. He's been put out in all 5 of his losses, 2 of those against mediocre regional HWs, and I don't see why this one would be any different. I hope Lane is able to get a takedown early because then Robelis' odds might turn playable.

That's very fair, I think I might go with a Lane ML or rd 1 and livebet Robelis if he's just trying to smother him in the first.

 

[Thesnake101]

Who TF is Alex?

He's doing the different first names bit he did with Alex Hernandez when he fought Hubbard.