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UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Zombie

I honestly don't have much to contribute to this card in terms of analysis, I was fully ready to break down the Delija/Gane fight.

So much for that.

I think, like Initially stated, that TKZ is better than Ortega everywhere, aside from maybe in a tournament jiu jitsu setting.

The real question is going to be, how much better has a young Ortega gotten over the last 2 years since we last saw him get his ass beat?

Ortega has gotten lucky in a lot of his fights. I don't want to call them fluke wins, because they're not -- he's just capitalized on scenarios that TKZ will not put himself in(Guida knee, elbow on Edgar).

He's not going to be able to pull off a spinning back elbow to put TKZ to sleep like Yair did.

But Ortega is a big FW. However, I honestly don't see what he brings to the table that TKZ hasn't dealt with. TKZ is still only 33, and took a few years off himself, so he's not punch drunk and his body isn't beaten up by any means. By all accounts, from everything we've seen recently from him, he's in his prime now.

If Ortega took the 2 years to drill wrestling offense 3 days a week, he'd have a chance. He took Max down what, 1 time in their 4 rounds? And Max popped right back up. He has great submissions, but the rest of his game is lackluster.

Even if he's been working on his stand-up immensely, 2 years isn't enough to catch up to TKZ.

I love playing dogs, but I simply can't find myself finding Ortega's path to victory on this one.

I'm pretty tired and rambling, but those are my incoherent thoughts on this matchup.
 
Invictis said:
The real question is going to be, how much better has a young Ortega gotten over the last 2 years since we last saw him get his ass beat?

Ortega has gotten lucky in a lot of his fights. I don't want to call them fluke wins, because they're not -- he's just capitalized on scenarios that TKZ will not put himself in(Guida knee, elbow on Edgar).

He's not going to be able to pull off a spinning back elbow to put TKZ to sleep like Yair did.

But Ortega is a big FW. However, I honestly don't see what he brings to the table that TKZ hasn't dealt with. TKZ is still only 33, and took a few years off himself, so he's not punch drunk and his body isn't beaten up by any means. By all accounts, from everything we've seen recently from him, he's in his prime now.

If Ortega took the 2 years to drill wrestling offense 3 days a week, he'd have a chance. He took Max down what, 1 time in their 4 rounds? And Max popped right back up. He has great submissions, but the rest of his game is lackluster.

Even if he's been working on his stand-up immensely, 2 years isn't enough to catch up to TKZ.

I love playing dogs, but I simply can't find myself finding Ortega's path to victory on this one.

I'm pretty tired and rambling, but those are my incoherent thoughts on this matchup.
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this was the thought process I had for Ortega to even stand a chance against TKZ. TKZ has so much more experience in the striking realm and he might even be a better overall grappler besides the sub game. The only thing admirable about Ortega is his Jiu Jitsu and Heart/Chin. Besides that, wrestling is not good, striking defense is horrible, and ring rust. You need elite wrestling and or good striking defense to stand a chance against the zombie, without either or it’s going to be a short night out for any 145er.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Considering this is the first post of yours I've ever read, you are wrong.

In fact, since I've barely been reading the weekly discussion topics for over a year now, I'm laughing at the idea that I would make blind item jabs at someone who joined 3 days ago and has 3 whole posts.
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My bad, I read the room wrong. Sorry about the assumption.

The Honchak fight is irrelevant to Robertson's present-day physical skills. But it's very relevant to her mental side, especially since she repeated the exact same behavior against Barber. So she quit in 2017 and then she quit again in late 2019. Seems relevant, no?
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Barber hit Modafferi hard enough to nearly finish her in the 1st so I wouldn't say it's the same thing. It is a glimpse into her psyche which is important, but taking punches and elbows from Barber is a tough task.

The Casey fight. Again, I can note the specific things that she is doing worse.
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Please do. I would love to learn some things.

She certainly isn't, which is why I never used the adjective "good". I'm very careful about the words I use in describing fighters.
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So what did you mean?

There's nothing especially complicated or difficult about the intrinsic act of catching a kick, whether aimed at the body or legs. Some fighters are better at it than others, obviously, but I will give Robertson, who is good at timing her entries, enough credit that she can do this, especially since it makes snapping down on the single much easier.
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Interesting take.

Robertson was told to get out of there or intelligently defend herself by the ref, and instead she ineffectually curled up instead of going back to clinch, which was available. The stoppage was probably too early, but any professional fighter knows how close a ref is to ending the match there.
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Very true. Looking at it yet again, it definitely looks bad. I can see why you think she's a quitter.
 
BigSteve said:
Alright about to go into surgery for tonsil removal. Will probably be off for a couple of day. I expect when I'm back my sherbros will have something decent for me on this average card. GG
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Hope you have a speedy recovery. Had mine out when I was young and 2 of my kids had theirs out recently. Throat will be sore after but you should eat plenty of sharp foods (crisps, hard biscuits etc) will aid in recovery and reduce chances of infection post surgery.
 
BigSteve said:
Alright about to go into surgery for tonsil removal. Will probably be off for a couple of day. I expect when I'm back my sherbros will have something decent for me on this average card. GG
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How are you getting along? Tonsil removal can be a bitch. Days 1 and 2 weren't bad, but once the area dried up while healing, it was brutal. Days 6 and 7 were really rough. I couldn't sleep because my throat kept drying up. I'd have to drink a ton of liquids, which made me have to piss constantly so sleeping for more than an hour straight was almost impossible.
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
I think Martinez is going to stop Almieda within 2 rounds. Almieda is super chinny, 2 year layoff or not. Martinez has that sneaky back step in knee and crisp boxing/footwork. He's also fast and accurate. I I'll probably play Martinez rounds 1/2.
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Almeida is "super chinny" because he got knocked out by Garbrandt and Font? GTFO
 
mmagod2020 said:
Almeida is "super chinny" because he got knocked out by Garbrandt and Font? GTFO
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Its wear and tear. Hes been in large double digit Muay Thai fights and has also been hurt badly in other fights like with Brad Pickett.
 
Main_Card_MMA said:
My bad, I read the room wrong. Sorry about the assumption.

Barber hit Modafferi hard enough to nearly finish her in the 1st so I wouldn't say it's the same thing. It is a glimpse into her psyche which is important, but taking punches and elbows from Barber is a tough task.
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Taking body kicks and right crosses from Botelho is a tough task, too. Hence the relevancy.

Please do. I would love to learn some things.
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Sure. Her straight punches (the only kind she throws) were slower and more pawing than ever, and she was using far less movement to evade opponent strikes. Compare her performance against McCann, the last time she notably improved her stand-up, to the Casey fight.

Look, it's actually more beneficial for Robertson to continue to refine and improve her bread-and-butter (grappler), which she has absolutely done, than to improve her striking, which is very far from a weapon if she could only choose one.

One hopes, however, that a fighter this young could improve both, as many in fact do.

So what did you mean?
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Exactly what I wrote. Her wrestling is "solid". That's a significantly lower bar of quality than "good" when I write down my notes.

Very true. Looking at it yet again, it definitely looks bad. I can see why you think she's a quitter.
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It's quitting with plausible deniability. Fighters do this a lot more than most people realize.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Its wear and tear. Hes been in large double digit Muay Thai fights and has also been hurt badly in other fights like with Brad Pickett.
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Still, Cody and Font are big hitters so I need to see him get knocked out by subpar opponents in order for me to write him off as "super chinny". I still have some faith in Almeida, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt. If Martinez cleans his clock... I will brand Almeida as "super chinny".
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
Found the wiki-capper <JonesLaugh>

He’s chinny because he’s been dropped in his last 3 fights.
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I've been watching mma since 2004 so shut your hole you newbie. I never stated that Almeida has a good chin - but to this date - he only got knocked out by two world class opponents (in mma). He does get hurt a lot in his fights, but he usually still manages to win. So if you are expecting Almeida to roll over and die after getting hit by Martinez, you're in for a rude awakening.
 
mmagod2020 said:
I've been watching mma since 2004 so shut your hole you newbie. I never stated that Almeida has a good chin - but to this date - he only got knocked out by two world class opponents (in mma). He does get hurt a lot in his fights, but he usually still manages to win. So if you are expecting Almeida to roll over and die after getting hit by Martinez, you're in for a rude awakening.
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{<BJPeen}
post your bets in the official thread. Talk is cheap Monica.
 
If you look at Almeida's loses, he loses to top boxers in the division (Font, Garbrandt, and Rivera). Martinez's boxing is not on that level, he strikes from a distance, his kicks are his best weapon. I don't believe Almeida is going to get picked apart with kicks, he's a very legit Muay Thai fighter. Almeida's hands look pretty sharp too and he has the speed advantage.

1.5-2 units on Almeida for me
 
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