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UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Dos Anjos

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Crimp_Keeper, Nov 7, 2020.

  1. Crimp_Keeper Brown Belt

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    [​IMG]

    **Barbarena pulled out today with an emergency surgery. Blood in his stomach... Bummer because I was big on D Rod here**

    I'm playing Williams, Hansen, Morono. Maybe Smolka and Gravely after some tape.

    INFO
    Islam Makhachev vs. Rafael dos Anjos Confirmed 5 x 5 Minute Rounds
    Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Khaos Williams Confirmed 3 x 5 Minute Rounds
    Julian Marquez vs. Saparbeg Safarov Confirmed 3 x 5 Minute Rounds
    Don'Tale Mayes vs. Roque Martinez Confirmed 3 x 5 Minute Rounds
    Antônio Arroyo vs. Eryk Anders Confirmed 3 x 5 Minute Rounds
    Kay Hansen vs. Cory McKenna Confirmed 3 x 5 Minute Rounds
    Ashley Yoder vs. Miranda Granger Confirmed 3 x 5 Minute Rounds
    Alex Morono vs. Rhys McKee Confirmed 3 x 5 Minute Rounds
    Louis Smolka vs. Jose Alberto Quiñonez Confirmed 3 x 5 Minute Rounds
    Randa Markos vs. Kanako Murata Confirmed 3 x 5 Minute Rounds
    Tony Gravely vs. Geraldo de Freitas Confirmed 3 x 5 Minute Rounds

    Only 4 out of the last 29 underdogs have won IIRC. Anik mentioned that stat during the broadcast tonight.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2020
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  2. Big step up for Islam.

    I need to watch more tape on him, I've been sleeping on him the past few years.

    -500 seems steep at first glance, RDA isn't an easy task in a 5 round fight for any LW.

    But I'll have to see for myself over the next week.
     
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  3. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    For the first time ever I like Smolka in a fight. Jose is a bum, Smolka is better everywhere
     
  4. Marko Bionda White Belt

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    Huge value on RDA imo
     
  5. BigSteve Purple Belt

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    first glance seems like there is lots of potential
     
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  6. burge13 Purple Belt

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    No idea why RDA insists on fighting grinding wrestlers. I was huge on him v Chiesa and he was dreadful. Size disadvantage mightnt be there here but not sure size matters when you've checked out
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2020
  7. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    No value, he will lose. 1% win chance.
    I bet dogs myself when I see value like Glover today but RDA will lose that in bad fashion
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2020
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  8. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    So far:

    Bet arroyo around +180
    McKenna at +185
     
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  9. Broe. Brown Belt

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    There is still value on arroyo imo. He is a better striker than Anders. And he is good at the one thing anders is terrible at defending ,the low kicks.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2020
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  10. ThatsFckingIllegal White Belt

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    Last time I checked fighters dont pick their opponents, this is the ufc baby
     
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  11. benebox Black Belt

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    Arroyo opened up at +140 here in the UK and I jumped on it. He will probably be the favourite come fight night.
     
  12. Austin1923 White Belt

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    Can you elaborate on why you like McKenna? IMHO she isn't that skilled, but she is 100% committed and will fight for your money.

    I posted the below a few days ago in another thread:

    McKenna showed she is better striker than Demopoulos in her last fight. Demopoulos' standup is very limited, but McKenna landed a nice headkick and consistently got the better of the exchanges.

    Hansen will have a significant reach advantage, but her standup game looked rudimentary against Jinh Yu Frey. I think Hansen's best path to victory is the same grapple heavy game plan she used to beat Frey. I know looks can be deceiving, but Hansen looks more athletic and physically robust than McKenna. I think she is also the more technical grappler, and has a history of pulling off nice sub wins.
     
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  13. Spath Black Belt

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    RDA is a legit BJJ black belt and very solid defensively. Chiesa tried his best but couldn’t really threaten him on the ground. I was disappointed in how RDA handled the stand up vs Chiesa, though... He was much faster, sharper, more power and he just couldn’t really get anything off. Chiesa zombied towards him and took him down, then it was a stalemate, more or less. Since Chiesa was on top and RDA was defending... Obviously Chiesa won.

    I’m not entirely sold on Islam being the next champ and all that. He’s very, very good grappler but I think RDA is his toughest test where RDA has fought the elite of the elite time and time again, even in the weight class above.

    There is some value for sure and I’ll have to look into it.

    <Goldie11>
     
  14. RDA often was dominated by wrestler and he already started to go in that post-prime direction and Islam is just a younger lion.
    Whatever happen, RDA have nothing to prove he always fought killer during his careers. It is going to be quite something.
     
  15. Gemskillz White Belt

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    I think both fighters still need to prove themselves, Cory’s striking looked really good while Kay’s seemed non-existent. Demopoulos has a decent grappling background with numerous sub finishes, I don’t think Kay’s wrestling will be that much better that she will get the sub. My guess it goes to decision with Cory winning from whatever amount of standup there was, as very little ended up happening on the ground.
    Also someone bet something like 28k on Kay last fight, I think that’s why Cory is +money rn. I feel like this should be a pickem.
     
  16. Broe. Brown Belt

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    Moving down to lightweight is a good move for Dos Anjos. He was just too small at welterweight. I feel more confident in him against wrestlers at 155. At +400 I have to take a little stab on RDA.
     
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  17. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    Figures. Had 1 of my biggest bets of the year on D Rod.

    Never fails anytime I have a large early bet
     
  18. Broe. Brown Belt

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    Mckenna is from the UK, her takedown defense will likely suck. It's hard to find tape of her defending takedowns. Anyway, Hansen took down Frey 3 times and Frey is physically much stronger than Mckenna and is also a much more experienced mma fighter. If anything I still see value on Hansen at -200. She will likely get takedowns in this fight and if she does Mckenna will likely not be able to get up.
     
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  19. Richard Cruz White Belt

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    McKenna has been training at TAM and Combat Sports Academy full time. Her training partners include Sara McMann and Murata.
     
  20. Austin1923 White Belt

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    This is about where I am with it too. Hansen's sub win over Frey is a much higher quality win than anything McKenna has achieved thus far.

    If you watch McKenna's fight with Chinello (her second most recent fight) she was taken down via head and arm throw ten seconds in to the first round. Sure, she was able to quickly sweep and get top position, but was primarily due to her opponent going for strikes at the expense of positioning.

    Demopoulos is not a complete grappler as she (apparently) has zero wrestling. If you watch her fight with McKenna closely she pulled guard in every round -- I don't think she ever even attempted a takedown. It isn't that difficult to win a three round MMA bout when your opponent pulls guard in every round.

    I wouldn't ignore the reach advantage here either: 4.5'' in Hansen's favor
     
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