I feel like this fight comes down to Fili's IQ which is severely lacking. Leaning towards Mitchell SUB but passing. Pretty big on Strickland, Jacoby, Green, Witt, Holland, and Hernandez DEC. Chalky card
I think FIli has the tdd to stop Mitchell except for the kick catch tds; Fili stopped Bermudez and Johnson. If Mitchell gets it down for longer than a minute or two, he'll probably get a sub, but he may be too aggressive and lose top control. I was leaning toward Mitchell, but I'll pass.
Stickland should cruise as he's better than Marshman everywhere. Might get an RNC in a scramble or back take if he fights smart and gets the tds. He's young enough that his time off and injuries shouldn't have taken him down far enough for Marshman to beat him.
My only concern with Green is the frequency of fights. He hurt his right hand in the Vannata fight, but looked fine against Patrick. Moises has a great drop knee shot and cuts the corner well and obviously his BJJ is better on paper than anyone Green has fought, but he has to get it there. Both of them fade in the 3rd which is when I think Moises will be his most dangerous, but Green has survived against good submission artists. I think it goes long unless Green is completely wasted from all the weight cuts and gets subbed. Green's only TKO win in the UFC is a body kick against Krause and I doubt Green will kick higher than the knee if he kicks at all. Maybe some oblique kicks or low side kicks.
I really liked Holland going into the Stewart fight and bet him, but he's raised too many questions for me to have confidence in him as others have said. In theory I think he beats Muradov. Fight frequency and injuries are clearly weighing him down, but this new guy should be an easy win. Bet it's gonna be the steepest line on the card.
Hernandez has cardio issues, but I don't think Gritz brings enough to the table to win off that. He's limited, 34 and coming off a 30 month layoff and injuries against a talented young prospect. Don't think Gritz can TKO or SUB and doubt he wins 2, but he's a tough sob. That line is crazy high though.
I can't pull the trigger on Silva. 4 years ago, sure, but not now. Might play the under very small, but gonna pass on a side. That's a big bicep vein for a 45 year old though.
Does anybody really want to watch Hardy/Greene? I think Hardy wins, but I wouldn't touch that fight.
Casey has the tools to beat Cachoeira pretty handily, but it's WMMA. Those looping power punches are sloppy and Cachoeira's only PTV. There might be some value on Cachoeira TKO since it's +1250, but I'm not gonna play it. That Dobson win was a weird uppercut thing that landed just right and didn't put her completely out.