UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady

[Stat_Collector]

Agreed.
Livebetting might do well too if the staph isn't as bad as expected, or he somehow manages to still out cardio Brady.

Yeah, even with staph, i would just lower his odds to 110+

him at 140+ now is still at surplus, 200+ would still be a wider surplus. Brady likely losses rounds 4-5 with his gas tank.

From what i know about staph medication is that it could cause drowsiness and tiredness, so he might be less efficient. But he also is fighting in his turf having 0 jet lag.

 

[XociDe]

Leon has claimed that he had staph "6 weeks ago" but you can clearly still see it at the end of this video. I'd be very surprised if he's not currently on antibiotics.



Definitely a shame. Potentially gonna ruin bets and a good fight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Leon has claimed that he had staph "6 weeks ago" but you can clearly still see it at the end of this video. I'd be very surprised if he's not currently on antibiotics.



Definitely a shame. Potentially gonna ruin bets and a good fight.

still betting leon.

Both Belal fight and Usman 2 shows that Leon will do whatever it takes to win. He's a gamer to the end.

(Referring the belal fight where he was on top gnp Belal.)

 

[mkess101]

still betting leon.

Both Belal fight and Usman 2 shows that Leon will do whatever it takes to win. He's a gamer to the end.

(Referring the belal fight where he was on top gnp Belal.)

TBH, I don't think Leon 2 showed much outside that Leon stays dangerous with his strikes the whole time. I guess it matters in the sense that even if Brady is dominating with grappling and Leon looks mentally defeated, he's still capable of finding a killshot.

IMO the third Usman fight showed he csn make adjustments. He was dominated almost all of the 2nd fight and while some of his success in the third fight was Usman declining a little, plenty was due to Leon making adjustments.

I think that matters here in the context that Brady is likely to at least somewhat likely to try to mimic a lot of what Belal did. So maybe Leon makes some adjustments that help him.

I'm still leaning Brady a bit, and the staph talk pushes me that way even more. But...I think it's gonna be competitive.

 

[Stat_Collector]

TBH, I don't think Leon 2 showed much outside that Leon stays dangerous with his strikes the whole time. I guess it matters in the sense that even if Brady is dominating with grappling and Leon looks mentally defeated, he's still capable of finding a killshot.

IMO the third Usman fight showed he csn make adjustments. He was dominated almost all of the 2nd fight and while some of his success in the third fight was Usman declining a little, plenty was due to Leon making adjustments.

I think that matters here in the context that Brady is likely to at least somewhat likely to try to mimic a lot of what Belal did. So maybe Leon makes some adjustments that help him.

I'm still leaning Brady a bit, and the staph talk pushes me that way even more. But...I think it's gonna be competitive.

key differences Belal maintains his good form for 5 rounds.

Brady starts off as a black belt and ends in round 5 a blue belt.

Belal had him hurt he looked like a siting duck, no cardio, big stiff muscles , cant recover or comeback.

Even looking back Leon has never been swept for 3 straight rounds from 1-3.

You’re putting a high burden of performance for Brady , and he lost round 3 to Chiesa so it’s unlikely he will sweep Leon in those key rounds.

Brady is lacking behind experience with other crafty vets too, he’s had a record of easier fights and not being challenged.

i can go on and on. Only an early
sub will save Brady.

 

[mkess101]

key differences Belal maintains his good form for 5 rounds.

Brady starts off as a black belt and ends in round 5 a blue belt.

Belal had him hurt he looked like a siting duck, no cardio, big stiff muscles , cant recover or comeback.

Even looking back Leon has never been swept for 3 straight rounds from 1-3.

You’re putting a high burden of performance for Brady , and he lost round 3 to Chiesa so it’s unlikely he will sweep Leon in those key rounds.

Brady is lacking behind experience with other crafty vets too, he’s had a record of easier fights and not being challenged.

i can go on and on. Only an early
sub will save Brady.

Ehh, don't forget he won rds 4 and 5 with a crafty vet in Burns in his last fight. I think Brady has maybe fixed some of his cardio and energy expenditure issues. Burns is past his prime TBF but he's still not a bum. That's his most recent fight, and a 5 rounder, so to me it has as least as much relevance as the previous fights (and probably more).

 

[Thesnake101]

Ehh, don't forget he won rds 4 and 5 with a crafty vet in Burns in his last fight. I think Brady has maybe fixed some of his cardio and energy expenditure issues. Burns is past his prime TBF but he's still not a bum. That's his most recent fight, and a 5 rounder, so to me it has as least as much relevance as the previous fights (and probably more).

A lot of that fight was spent on the feet too, due to Gilbert not letting himself get held down for too long.

He also showed good cardio against Gastelum for a late finish. At this point it's hard for me to see him as the same guy who got tagged by Chiesa in the third.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Ehh, don't forget he won rds 4 and 5 with a crafty vet in Burns in his last fight. I think Brady has maybe fixed some of his cardio and energy expenditure issues. Burns is past his prime TBF but he's still not a bum. That's his most recent fight, and a 5 rounder, so to me it has as least as much relevance as the previous fights (and probably more).

its was slow pace and a lot of
rest in between from foul shots. i thought it was pretty meh. Burns looked old and slow and still landed some decent shots in the pocket. Im not seeing a champion performance.

A lot of that fight was spent on the feet too, due to Gilbert not letting himself get held down for too long.

He also showed good cardio against Gastelum for a late finish. At this point it's hard for me to see him as the same guy who got tagged by Chiesa in the third.

Certain Leon will getup and provide more resistance than Kelvin. different flexibility, speed and all around fighter. Leon is far superior than Kelvin there, ppl forget Leon is a bjj blackbelt himself.

 

[StewDogg11]

A lot of that fight was spent on the feet too, due to Gilbert not letting himself get held down for too long.

He also showed good cardio against Gastelum for a late finish. At this point it's hard for me to see him as the same guy who got tagged by Chiesa in the third.

I think like DDP he had surgery on his nose.

 

[mkess101]

its was slow pace and a lot of
rest in between from foul shots. i thought it was pretty meh. Burns looked old and slow and still landed some decent shots in the pocket. Im not seeing a champion performance.


Certain Leon will getup and provide more resistance than Kelvin. different flexibility, speed and all around fighter. Leon is far superior than Kelvin there, ppl forget Leon is a bjj blackbelt himself.

Leon fights at a slow pace too though. He's not as washed as Gil obviously, but he's not gonna tax Brady's cardio. If Brady slows, it'll be due to his own mismanagement of his energy. Brady outlanded Gil by a ton and got most of his TD's late. Like I said, Gil isn't what he was but he's also not a bum.
I do agree Leon is an underrated grappler.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Leon fights at a slow pace too though. He's not as washed as Gil obviously, but he's not gonna tax Brady's cardio. If Brady slows, it'll be due to his own mismanagement of his energy. Brady outlanded Gil by a ton and got most of his TD's late. Like I said, Gil isn't what he was but he's also not a bum.
I do agree Leon is an underrated grappler.

Its different because Edwards is low output but not due to cardio, its because he’s a sniper who picks his shot, if he out points Brady, it’s going to force him to hit the gas to try and catch up behind the score.

Brady only landed td after they both slowed a lot, and the first three rounds were a lot of cage hugging, Leon will tax him more with body work, knees in the clinch and kicks to the middle. Leon is capable of high output when he wants to be, Brady is pacing himself because he needs to.

I think it’s pretty well known Sean gasses, i don’t know why this is a debate. He collapsed on the floor at the end of the burns fight and was gasping for air.

 

[mkess101]

Its different because Edwards is low output but not due to cardio, its because he’s a sniper who picks his shot, if he out points Brady, it’s going to force him to hit the gas to try and catch up behind the score.

Brady only landed td after they both slowed a lot, and the first three rounds were a lot of cage hugging, Leon will tax him more with body work, knees in the clinch and kicks to the middle. Leon only is capable of high output when he needs to be, Brady is pacing himself because he needs to.

I think it’s pretty well known Sean gasses, i don’t know why this is a debate. He collapsed on the floor at the end of the burns fight and was grasping for air.

I don't necessarily hold it against a guy for getting tired if he's figured out how to fight through it. Brady had high activity even when tired in rds 4 and 5 last time out.

Brady is gonna crowd Leon and force action. Leon won't be sniping him. If Leon handles the pressure better than he did vs Belal he'll win. If not, he'll lose. At least that's how I see it.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't necessarily hold it against a guy for getting tired if he's figured out how to fight through it. Brady had high activity even when tired in rds 4 and 5 last time out.

Brady is gonna crowd Leon and force action. Leon won't be sniping him. If Leon handles the pressure better than he did vs Belal he'll win. If not, he'll lose. At least that's how I see it.

With how washed burns was, chasing overhands, i didn’t see this as an excuse. leon has had higher pace fights with usman , Colby and Belal, and he didn’t look like that.

I’m more worried Leon shooting a takedown and getting guillotined. That maybe he has too much unfamiliarity with elite bjj.

I hedged a bet of Brady sub with .5 units to cover myself, i don’t see sean winning decision, edwards has more season experience fighting guys that resemble Brady than the other way around

 

[DoctorTaco]

I put 60 each on:
Wood +120
Padilla -112
Parkin -125
Brady -155
Nelson -118
Fernandes +340

 

[PuertoRican]

Recent line movement:

Herbert -170 > -110
Parkin +160 > -145
Padilla +150 > -115
Thainara -200 > -250
Wood +160 > +115
Nelson -155 > -115

 

[Thesnake101]

Recent line movement:

Herbert -170 > -110
Parkin +160 > -145
Padilla +150 > -115
Thainara -200 > -250
Wood +160 > +115
Nelson -155 > -115

This makes me more interested in The Pervert Herbert and Gunni.

 

[mkess101]

With how washed burns was, chasing overhands, i didn’t see this as an excuse. leon has had higher pace fights with usman , Colby and Belal, and he didn’t look like that.

I’m more worried Leon shooting a takedown and getting guillotined. That maybe he has too much unfamiliarity with elite bjj.

I hedged a bet of Brady sub with .5 units to cover myself, i don’t see sean winning decision, edwards has more season experience fighting guys that resemble Brady than the other way around

Last part could be true, but imo just having seen it only matters if you can stop it when it comes to facing that heavy pressure grappling style. I'd say mixed results for Leon on that front.

Brady is a pretty elite grappler. Controlling a guy like Craig Jones is a big accomplishment regardless of rules.

I have a ML bet on Brady in one parlay at better odds than are currently available (-130), I'm still figuring out what to do (if anything) outside that play.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Last part could be true, but imo just having seen it only matters if you can stop it when it comes to facing that heavy pressure grappling style. I'd say mixed results for Leon on that front.

Brady is a pretty elite grappler. Controlling a guy like Craig Jones is a big accomplishment regardless of rules.

I have a ML bet on Brady in one parlay at better odds than are currently available (-130), I'm still figuring out what to do (if anything) outside that play.

Guys like Craig Jones prefer to be on their backs because that's where they are most dangerous, his mission is not to get back up and try to out wrestle Sean. Leon on the other hand has spent more years trying to get off the ground and avoid going there. And striking changes everything. Tatiana Suarez is a better wrestler than Weili and Rose. Yet Rose had more success wrestling Weili because she had the cardio and the striking to throw Weili off her game and get her down. I believe Sean is more like Tatiana and less like Rose. That is my assessment, i think he's a killer in the first rounds , and if Leon's not careful, he can be put to sleep. That doesn't mean he will grapple eff Leon for 5 rounds. Because his striking betrays him , his bad timing, flat footed movement, and his average gas tank makes the dynamics of the fight faar different than if it were a bjj match.

We'll see, I probably should not have been ultra aggressive trying to convince everyone Edwards will win, I've set myself up for a nice humiliation ritual. Oh well I'll have to take a break if i'm wrong. I'm going to start posting bets from now on and leave the debates in the dms, i think debates are just speculations, fights dont always go the way we think, it's usually the case.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm going to miss this one live and have to watch it quickly before bed. This is probably the smallest that I've played in a while, but I'm on a lot of dogs here. I think it's hard to justify most of the favs.

 

[mkess101]

Guys like Craig Jones prefer to be on their backs because that's where they are most dangerous, his mission is not to get back up and try to out wrestle Sean. Leon on the other hand has spent more years trying to get off the ground and avoid going there. And striking changes everything. Tatiana Suarez is a better wrestler than Weili and Rose. Yet Rose had more success wrestling Weili because she had the cardio and the striking to throw Weili off her game and get her down. I believe Sean is more like Tatiana and less like Rose. That is my assessment, i think he's a killer in the first rounds , and if Leon's not careful, he can be put to sleep. That doesn't mean he will grapple eff Leon for 5 rounds. Because his striking betrays him , his bad timing, flat footed movement, and his average gas tank makes the dynamics of the fight faar different than if it were a bjj match.

We'll see, I probably should not have been ultra aggressive trying to convince everyone Edwards will win, I've set myself up for a nice humiliation ritual. Oh well I'll have to take a break if i'm wrong. I'm going to start posting bets from now on and leave the debates in the dms, i think debates are just speculations, fights dont always go the way we think, it's usually the case.

Nah I disagree. (Discussion in the DM''S is fine too obviously, but I think it's also beneficial on the open forum).

We aren't talking shit or being disrespectful at all. We're just offering different views on the fight. If you're wrong, you're wrong. And nobody should rub your nose in it. Just like if you're spot on and Leon does exactly what you think he will you aren't gonna be a dick about it.

The dynamics for sure are different than in a grappling match, all I'm saying as someone who competed in both (obviously at a MUCH lower level) is that with Jones you're talking about a top handful type guy in the world. He plays guard yes, but has crazy sweeps off his leglocks etc. Leon will obviously use different strategy to get up with the cage etc but Brady clearly has an elite top game overall regardless.