UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah Khamzat gassed after dominating Usman for 2 rounds but Usman's gas tank was definitely still there because he was coming on rd 3. I didn't mean to imply he became washed overnight or anything, just that his explosiveness had clearly started to deteriorate.

Leon is absolutely the better overall striker, especially from distance. Brady will of course try to crowd him and push the pace. I think Brady can win some minutes cage stalling too. I think Brady winning a decision is the most likely scenario but I can see a path to a later stoppage for Leon if Brady wilts due to trying to push too hard a pace.

Leon has a decision and a late finish chance. Brady has a decision and nothing else.

Then he has to beat the judges. Assuming one judge is local, he likely gives it to Edwards if it's a close fight. The crowd will also be cheering every time Edwards lands something, affecting the judges scoring. If this fight took place in the Apex , i would favor Brady to ctrl and push Edwards. Leon has a wide arena to fight outside and move freely.

The likely scenario is Edwards wins and rematches Belal after he beats JDM. I have a hard time believing we never see that fight again.

 

[mkess101]

Leon has a decision and a late finish chance. Brady has a decision and nothing else.

Then he has to beat the judges. Assuming one judge is local, he likely gives it to Edwards if it's a close fight. The crowd will also be cheering every time Edwards lands something, affecting the judges scoring. If this fight took place in the Apex , i would favor Brady to ctrl and push Edwards. Leon has a wide arena to fight outside and move freely.

The likely scenario is Edwards wins and rematches Belal after he beats JDM. I have a hard time believing we never see that fight again.

I think Brady sub is possible (if a bit unlikely). Kelvin is a pretty seasoned grappler so getting him is a decent sub win. But I agree Brady's clearest path is decision. I'd rank the most possible outcomes:
1. Brady decision
2. Leon KO
3. Leon decision
4. Brady sub

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think Brady sub is possible (if a bit unlikely). Kelvin is a pretty seasoned grappler so getting him is a decent sub win. But I agree Brady's clearest path is decision. I'd rank the most possible outcomes:
1. Brady decision
2. Leon KO
3. Leon decision
4. Brady sub

in a 3 round fight or in the apex sure.

Leon 5 round performance: 2 wins on usman, 1 colby, and 47-48 with Belal.

Brady has 1 win on Burns.

How do you come up with this rating?

 

[mkess101]

in a 3 round fight or in the apex sure.

Leon 5 round performance: 2 wins on usman, 1 colby, and 47-48 with Belal.

Brady has 1 win on Burns.

How do you come up with this rating?

Well, in terms of how I break it down I tend to think about how I see the fight playing out in my mind. For example (and I'm not saying my way is right and yours wrong, it's just a different way of viewing it) the first Leon/Usman 5 rounder. Yes Leon won, but it was a miracle, ultra low probability last minute KO and he was well on the way to losing a lopsided decision. So I don't look at that win in a vacuum as a "Leon win in a 5 rounder". I'm looking at how the fight played out overall. Leon absolutely handled the grappling better in the rematch, but again I think that was in part due to Usman starting to lose some of his explosiveness.

And then some of it like I said is trajectory and/or things outside just looking at past performances. I think there are stats out there (this is me going by memory of seeing it at some point so I'm not positive) about guys having losing records in their next fight after losing the belt. And I liked what I saw in Brady vs Burns in terms of his improved gas tank and ability to keep a pace even when tired. I think career momentum and styles matter and Brady can replicate a decent amount of what Belal did. Maybe even with better control.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Well, in terms of how I break it down I tend to think about how I see the fight playing out in my mind. For example (and I'm not saying my way is right and yours wrong, it's just a different way of viewing it) the first Leon/Usman 5 rounder. Yes Leon won, but it was a miracle, ultra low probability last minute KO and he was well on the way to losing a lopsided decision. So I don't look at that win in a vacuum as a "Leon win in a 5 rounder". I'm looking at how the fight played out overall. Leon absolutely handled the grappling better in the rematch, but again I think that was in part due to Usman starting to lose some of his explosiveness.

And then some of it like I said is trajectory and/or things outside just looking at past performances. I think there are stats out there (this is me going by memory of seeing it at some point so I'm not positive) about guys having losing records in their next fight after losing the belt. And I liked what I saw in Brady vs Burns in terms of his improved gas tank and ability to keep a pace even when tired. I think career momentum and styles matter and Brady can replicate a decent amount of what Belal did. Maybe even with better control.

where does Belal piecing up Brady and winning every striking exchange fall under this equation? Even if we assume he gets high ctrl time, that striking and damage he is likely to take will probably out balance his grappling . Sometimes you have to look at the overall resume. Leon has cashed as a dog in that last couple of fights. Seems the further the line gets pushed, i cant see how the sharp move would not be to play him.

That record you're referencing could also have other factors, like fighters being over the age of 35 etc. Leon is 33, he's not that old yet like Izzy.

We'll see, I guess i'll look like a big asshole if Brady wins and face plant. Or if my wisdom serves me right, Edwards does what all indicators says he'll do.

 

[mkess101]

where does Belal piecing up Brady and winning every striking exchange fall under this equation? Even if we assume he gets high ctrl time, that striking and damage he is likely to take will probably out balance his grappling . Sometimes you have to look at the overall resume. Leon has cashed as a dog in that last couple of fights. Seems the further the line gets pushed, i cant see how the sharp move would not be to play him.

That record you're referencing could also have other factors, like fighters being over the age of 35 etc. Leon is 33, he's not that old yet like Izzy.

We'll see, I guess i'll look like a big asshole if Brady wins and face plant. Or if my wisdom serves me right, Edwards does what all indicators says he'll do.

Oh don't get me wrong. I lean Brady, but absolutely it all has to factor in. Brady's striking looked like dogshit vs Belal, imo it looked far better vs Burns. But no doubt there are concerns that Leon uses his well rounded striking to land the more damaging blows.
The stat iirc was all champs in their first fight after losing the belt, regardless of age. But plenty could've been older, I'm not sure.

If Brady gets bet more and more, yeah I'd have to reassess. I think he wins more often than not, but it's still close. Right now he's -156 at the book I'd use. If he starts creeping near -200, pass. I'm hoping his decision line adds some value but I'm not super hopeful that I'm gonna get a number I love.

This also isn't the best spot on the card imo, I think we agree on a couple other fights that hold more value.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Oh don't get me wrong. I lean Brady, but absolutely it all has to factor in. Brady's striking looked like dogshit vs Belal, imo it looked far better vs Burns. But no doubt there are concerns that Leon uses his well rounded striking to land the more damaging blows.
The stat iirc was all champs in their first fight after losing the belt, regardless of age. But plenty could've been older, I'm not sure.

If Brady gets bet more and more, yeah I'd have to reassess. I think he wins more often than not, but it's still close. Right now he's -156 at the book I'd use. If he starts creeping near -200, pass. I'm hoping his decision line adds some value but I'm not super hopeful that I'm gonna get a number I love.

This also isn't the best spot on the card imo, I think we agree on a couple other fights that hold more value.

i didn't even include the other 5 rounds with prime Cerone and Rda. Leon is already a grizzled veteran in main events, and a former champ. We'll see, i think this will be like Max Halloway vs Arnold Allen in terms of rankings 'former champ outclasses the contender/prospect in the come up.'


I have a parlay with him and parkins with staked 5 units, i think he's my second-best pick.

I do think it's a hit or miss, i just look at it like a dealer is offering me a coin flip, he is telling me heads gives me -150 and tails gives me 130+, I'm siding with tails.

 

[Guld]

Edwards being the dog here feels wild.

How on earth is Jan +200? This is even odds at worst. How does he keep getting counted out?

Yeah, there have been a few of those lately.
In addition to Leon and Jan, Gaethje was the underdog to Fiz.
Upcoming fights too.
Chandler being a dog to Paddy seems odd to me.
I guess the trend is that they are betting on the old guys being done/on the decline, and betting on the upward trajectory of the new/younger fighters?

 

[mkess101]

i didn't even include the other 5 rounds with prime Cerone and Rda. Leon is already a grizzled veteran in main events, and a former champ. We'll see, i think this will be like Max Halloway vs Arnold Allen in terms of rankings 'former champ outclasses the contender/prospect in the come up.'


I have a parlay with him and parkins with staked 5 units, i think he's my second-best pick.

I do think it's a hit or miss, i just look at it like a dealer is offering me a coin flip, he is telling me heads gives me -150 and tails gives me 130+, I'm siding with tails.

Fair. I'm putting more stock in the stylistic aspects and Brady's ability to dictate how the fight plays out. But absolutely Leon is the more proven guy, especially in 5 rounders.

 

[Stat_Collector]

for ppl betting Jan, i think he's better off being faded.

Jan has declining cardio, and his footwork is much slower than his prime days.

I think Ulberg being faster and younger will allow him to coast , he may have moments where he gets pushed against the cage, but i think the likely scenario is a decision. 3 round fight favors Ulberg here too.

If you wanna take a long shot prop bet maybe Jan submission or ko 1-2. But that all depends on his ability to sub from the back or counter punch with a heavy hook. Just feels much safer betting Ulberg, he's got good fight iq since his loss to Kennedy he's developed a more counter punch style.

 

[mkess101]

for ppl betting Jan, i think he's better off being faded.

Jan has declining cardio, and his footwork is much slower than his prime days.

I think Ulberg being faster and younger will allow him to coast , he may have moments where he gets pushed against the cage, but i think the likely scenario is a decision. 3 round fight favors Ulberg here too.

If you wanna take a long shot prop bet maybe Jan submission or ko 1-2. But that all depends on his ability to sub from the back or counter punch with a heavy hook. Just feels much safer betting Ulberg, he's got good fight iq since his loss to Kennedy he's developed a more counter punch style.

Yeah he's 42 and while the age isn't as big a concern at the heavier weights, I think in this specific matchup it matters a lot because of how well Ulberg moves. And it's not only Jan's age. He's coming in off a 2 year layoff. He could take a round or 2 just getting back being used to fully live competition.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah he's 42 and while the age isn't as big a concern at the heavier weights, I think in this specific matchup it matters a lot because of how well Ulberg moves. And it's not only Jan's age. He's coming in off a 2 year layoff. He could take a round or 2 just getting back being used to fully live competition.

Yeah who knows if he even can absorb shots like he use to.

 

[Guld]

Jan's time away is more of a concern to me than his age. (both are a concern though)

 

[StewDogg11]

i didn't even include the other 5 rounds with prime Cerone and Rda. Leon is already a grizzled veteran in main events, and a former champ. We'll see, i think this will be like Max Halloway vs Arnold Allen in terms of rankings 'former champ outclasses the contender/prospect in the come up.'


I have a parlay with him and parkins with staked 5 units, i think he's my second-best pick.

I do think it's a hit or miss, i just look at it like a dealer is offering me a coin flip, he is telling me heads gives me -150 and tails gives me 130+, I'm siding with tails.

Conveniently leaves out how he almost got knocked out by Nate Diaz. Hell he probably should’ve if Diaz didn’t decide to showboat like the moron he is. He didn’t fight a prime Cerrone either.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Conveniently leaves out how he almost got knocked out by Nate Diaz. Hell he probably should’ve if Diaz didn’t decide to showboat like the moron he is. He didn’t fight a prime Cerrone either.

Brady is a grappler. why focus on something he’s unlikely to do. Brady hasn’t scored a kd since Court, unlikely he catches him when other lethal fighters on the feet couldn’t.

 

[Dailo]

not sure why leon is the underdog here

 

[Dailo]

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I already put my money where my mouth is. I don't need to try and persuade anyone, I was just giving my feedback to his reply.

If you're on Leon, then good luck to you.

lmao

 

['Suga Daddy']

In the words of @BigSteve early tease if you guys haven't checked out his YouTube shit you should I love his smart ass comments to people


Guram-dec
Fletcher-dec
Tomar-dec
Pulayev-dec
Parkin-dec
Kavanaugh-dec
Padilla-ko2
Wood-dec
Duncan-dec
Thainara-dec
Nelson-sub2
Ulberg-ko1
Edwards-dec

Walk me through the Duncan pick. Think Vucenic rolls here

 

['Suga Daddy']

Brady has better boxing, power in his hands, wrestling, BJJ, output, aggression, and cardio. Brady can win ITD or by decision.

If you're a Leon backer, ask yourself his ways to win prior to betting him. This fight won't be close, so I'm not worried about a hometown decision for Leon.

Dude I'm not a Leon fan but to say Brady has better boxing is downright laughable

 

[Thesnake101]

Walk me through the Duncan pick. Think Vucenic rolls here

Probably a value pick, Jordan's a massive favorite that's been in the UFC and training stateside for years now. Chris is one of those guys who is decent enough everywhere to play spoiler against one-dimensional guys.