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UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady

In the words of @BigSteve early tease if you guys haven't checked out his YouTube shit you should I love his smart ass comments to people


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I like Leon to win that matchup, and at dog odds I'm extra happy 😆
I also like Jan over Ulberg. Unless Jan is over the hill (which is obviously possible at his age) I think he soundly outstrikes Ulberg. Again, at dog odds I'm happy to take that risk.
 
I only locked in one bet so far: Sean Brady -140

I'll place my other bets when I arrive in Vegas on Friday night.
 
PuertoRican said:
I only locked in one bet so far: Sean Brady -140

I'll place my other bets when I arrive in Vegas on Friday night.
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You think the forward pressure + grappling will shut down Leon's striking for 5 rounds?
 
Guld said:
You think the forward pressure + grappling will shut down Leon's striking for 5 rounds?
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Brady has better boxing, power in his hands, wrestling, BJJ, output, aggression, and cardio. Brady can win ITD or by decision.

If you're a Leon backer, ask yourself his ways to win prior to betting him. This fight won't be close, so I'm not worried about a hometown decision for Leon.
 
PuertoRican said:
If you're a Leon backer, ask yourself his ways to win prior to betting him. This fight won't be close, so I'm not worried about a hometown decision for Leon.
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watch the last minute of the Chiesa fight.

ask yourself if you think Leon,Usman, or Belal would allow that to happen. Leon pre belal fight would be a -200 favorite.

Now he loses to the guy who koed Brady and he’s 100+ , make it make sense.

brady wouldn’t beat Usman.
 
Stat_Collector said:
watch the last minute of the Chiesa fight.

ask yourself if you think Leon,Usman, or Belal would allow that to happen. Leon pre belal fight would be a -200 favorite.

Now he loses to the guy who koed Brady and he’s 100+ , make it make sense.

brady wouldn’t beat Usman.
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I already put my money where my mouth is. I don't need to try and persuade anyone, I was just giving my feedback to his reply.

If you're on Leon, then good luck to you.
 
Stat_Collector said:
watch the last minute of the Chiesa fight.

ask yourself if you think Leon,Usman, or Belal would allow that to happen. Leon pre belal fight would be a -200 favorite.

Now he loses to the guy who koed Brady and he’s 100+ , make it make sense.

brady wouldn’t beat Usman.
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For argument's sake you should also look at the way Leon has been fighting since the Usman fights, he's not very aggressive nor a potent finisher, rarely shows any urgency and will most likely let Sean control the tempo of the fight. Sean also looked very impressive in terms of gas tank and output against Gilbert.
 
If Brady pressures like crazy I think he has a solid shot. That being said I dont see if his cardio is still up for task. Burns was happy to give him the fight he wanted.

I think Ulberg hits a 29-28 against Jan

Nelson to lay on Holland for three? Not sure about that. I kinda like Holland since Gunni is much smaller than the dudes typically ragdolling Holland.
 
Thesnake101 said:
For argument's sake you should also look at the way Leon has been fighting since the Usman fights, he's not very aggressive nor a potent finisher, rarely shows any urgency and will most likely let Sean control the tempo of the fight. Sean also looked very impressive in terms of gas tank and output against Gilbert.
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before the fight ended, it ended with him on top smashing gnp and attacking a sub. Altho its also debatable that he would have finished him.

ppl might be misremembering a one sided fight but Leon swept Belal several times and had his back , Leon is not even a bad grappler.
 
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Stat_Collector said:
He looked like he was on the verge of tkoing or subbing belal before the fight ended, it ended with him on top smashing gnp and attacking a sub.

ppl might be misremembering a one sided fight but Leon swept Belal several times and had his back , Leon is not even a bad grappler.
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Leon isn't a bad grappler, but Brady isn't a carbon copy of Belal either. Brady is heavier on top, harder to sweep, just a better pressure grappler if if IF his gas tank holds up.
That's one thing nobody needs to worry about with Belal and why he can get TD's and give up position but just keep working and eventually get back to being in control enough to win rounds.


If Brady puts Leon on his back, it's more likely the rounds look like they did in the 2nd Usman fight (up until the miracle head kick) where Leon is smothered most of the round. It's just...will Brady fade from the grind over 5 rounds and if so, how badly? I can see him winning the first 3 rounds and Leon needing a finish to win.
 
mkess101 said:
Leon isn't a bad grappler, but Brady isn't a carbon copy of Belal either. Brady is heavier on top, harder to sweep, just a better pressure grappler if if IF his gas tank holds up.
That's one thing nobody needs to worry about with Belal and why he can get TD's and give up position but just keep working and eventually get back to being in control enough to win rounds.


If Brady puts Leon on his back, it's more likely the rounds look like they did in the 2nd Usman fight (up until the miracle head kick) where Leon is smothered most of the round. It's just...will Brady fade from the grind over 5 rounds and if so, how badly? I can see him winning the first 3 rounds and Leon needing a finish to win.
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i wrote a long form essay, but to keep it short, he's had trouble holding down lesser fighters, i dont think him out wrestling Chiesa and Kelvin makes it a sure thing. Both of them did sweep him, and Court canceled him easily. Edwards did far better in the last fight with Usman so why go by the previous bout, he improved in that area.
 
Stat_Collector said:
i wrote a long form essay, but to keep it short, he's had trouble holding down lesser fighters, i dont think him out wrestling Chiesa and Kelvin makes it a sure thing. Both of them did sweep him, and Court canceled him easily. Edwards did far better in the last fight with Usman so why go by the previous bout, he improved in that area.
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I think it's a matter of trajectory. Leon did much better the 3rd Usman fight, but I think Usman had started his decline to a degree. I think Belal laid the blueprint and Brady keeps honing and improving his style. I have to think about exactly how confident I am in Brady here.
 
mkess101 said:
I think it's a matter of trajectory. Leon did much better the 3rd Usman fight, but I think Usman had started his decline to a degree. I think Belal laid the blueprint and Brady keeps honing and improving his style. I have to think about exactly how confident I am in Brady here.
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Usman went on to give Khamzat a tough fight, potentially could have beaten him in a 5 rounder. Usman is a better striker than Brady, i know this to be true because Brady made Belal look like Canelo. Leon kept Belal from really landing anything significant his striking defense is sharper. You dont have to really look too deep . Leon gave Belal a tougher fight, had him bleeding, Belal ran through Brady. I get style make fights, but Edwards has already 3 good wins agianst wrestlers. Brady also scores low numbers of subs for a high level bjj guy. It took several tries for him to get Kelvin. This fight would be a lot closer if Brady's striking was on par with Edwards. It's not. Brady's ctrl time against Burns was mostly cage stalling, only until the later rounds he got him down, and still got swept, Burns is high level but , Brady hits a ceiling on who he can wrestle for long periods. The strikes he absorbed in round 3 vs Chiesa and getting taken down and gnp , that shows a bit of residual that Brady has mid level fighter skill level.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Usman went on to give Khamzat a tough fight, potentially could have beaten him in a 5 rounder. Usman is a better striker than Brady, i know this to be true because Brady made Belal look like Canelo. Leon kept Belal from really landing anything significant his striking defense is sharper. You dont have to really look too deep . Leon gave Belal a tougher fight, had him bleeding, Belal ran through Brady. I get style make fights, but Edwards has already 3 good wins agianst wrestlers. Brady also scores low numbers of subs for a high level bjj guy. It took several tries for him to get Kelvin. This fight would be a lot closer if Brady's striking was on par with Edwards. It's not. Brady's ctrl time against Burns was mostly cage stalling, only until the later rounds he got him down, and still got swept, Burns is high level but , Brady hits a ceiling on who he can wrestle for long periods. The strikes he absorbed in round 3 vs Chiesa and getting taken down and gnp , that shows a bit of residual that Brady has mid level fighter skill level.
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Yeah Khamzat gassed after dominating Usman for 2 rounds but Usman's gas tank was definitely still there because he was coming on rd 3. I didn't mean to imply he became washed overnight or anything, just that his explosiveness had clearly started to deteriorate.

Leon is absolutely the better overall striker, especially from distance. Brady will of course try to crowd him and push the pace. I think Brady can win some minutes cage stalling too. I think Brady winning a decision is the most likely scenario but I can see a path to a later stoppage for Leon if Brady wilts due to trying to push too hard a pace.
 
Edwards being the dog here feels wild.

How on earth is Jan +200? This is even odds at worst. How does he keep getting counted out?

Padilla has looked pretty good. Happy to play him at +odds

Parkin at +odds feels playable
 
So Nunes is out and Meatball gets this Thainara from DWCS. Can't remember her fight much from there, she won a lopsided decision. Meatball went from like -300 vs Nunes to +150 vs this Thainara girl so books obviously think this new girl is decent. Wonder if Molly is just kinda starting to slow down and the lackluster effort vs Brasil is what we can now expect from her? She really got the shit beat out her by Brasil.
 
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