UFC Fight Night 255 Underdog pick of the night

[doozer]

Leon is 33. Shouldn't quite be falling off the cliff yet.

He got outworked be Belal, who outworks everyone.
Belal kicked Bradys ass too. Not all that long ago.

And Belal is a pressure fighter and mixes it up...

Does Brady have good enough striking to keep Leon off balance like Belal did?


I guess we find out if Leon had an off night or if he is on the backside. I would have thought Leon of the last few years would be a pretty easy pick over Brady. No one has ragdolled him aside from the Belal fight and he isn't generally easy to takedown or outstrike. And while Brady has good pace, technique wise I didn't think he was quite as high level a technical striker as Leon. I suppose he could just out volume until he gasses, again this would require Leon to have fallen off though, or be slacking on his cardio.



Also, I feel like you can make the same statement of Brady.
Burns is old as fuck, I love him, he is a warrior, but he is not the same guy. Gastelum is shot and well past his best years. Chiesa again peaked probably a decade ago.



The WW division has truly been built off of "making a name" off of old shot stars from the Golden era.

You mentioned a few times about whether Brady has the striking to deal with Leon and although that is a factor to me it’s more about if Leon has the wrestling deal with Brady. If Brady can’t control him I think he’s in for a long night.

For me it’s also not if Leon had an off night, it’s definitely possible but I think he was himself. It is how much Brady has grown since his fight with Belal. I think in a lot of ways he was very green and Balal broke him, but he grew from it. It will be interesting.

 

[Siver!]

Virtually every card there is at least one fighter who beats the odds and wins as the underdog. Which is the 1 fighter you think most likely to do so this time?

• Leon Edwards +130 vs. Sean Brady -155
• Jan Blachowicz +195 vs. Carlos Ulberg -240
• Kevin Holland +120 vs. Gunnar Nelson -140
• Molly McCann +150 vs. Alexia Thainara -185
• Chris Duncan +280 vs. Jordan Vucenic -380
• Morgan Charriere -185 vs. Nathaniel Wood +155
• Jai Herbert -115 vs. Chris Padilla -105
• Felipe dos Santos vs +320. Lone'er Kavanagh -410
• Mick Parkin +120 vs. Marcin Tybura -140
• Christian Leroy Duncan -650 vs. Andrey Pulyaev +425
• Shauna Bannon -180 vs. Puja Tomar +150
• Nathan Fletcher -155 vs. Caolan Loughran +130
• Kaue Fernandes +330 vs. Guram Kutateladze -425

Hughes pulls off a hard fought split decision for me, it was razor close. But thank you to Hughes who brings my pick number to 6-3.
Also I have decided to give shout outs to others who picks right. And I’m going to go back through the cards one each time to do so.

Last card UFC FN 254 props to those who picked a winning underdog @Thesnake101 @Ruv sort of @SamuraiBro expressing surprise that Vettori is favoured @Hymen Crusher sort of @xhaydenx placed bet on the fighter @Serge421
This week shoutouts for correct picks on UFC 312 sort of @Kowboy On Sherdog he listed his picks so I took the first underdog and Zang won @Kyojiro Kagenuma @Sean Chowdhury @Goodfella86

I’m right now looking at Nathaniel Wood for this pick but first am going to watch UFC on the line before making it officially. He just seems to be better and better record. I don’t get it. I was also looking at Edwards, Jan, and Holland

Copying this from the "Weigh In" thread as it's more appropriate here!

Found this quite a tough card to pick for a variety of reasons.

I didn't pick enough underdogs on the last one, despite considering a lot of them, but I think the trend continues here. Too many unreliable favourites IMO.

Ulberg's price is off, Gunnar Nelson never fights and doesn't look the same standard as the guys that have been beating Kevin Holland (any of them, really), I don't rate Charriere, I'm confident Tybura should win the fight with Parkin (if he can close the distance, Parkin is quite evasive), Bannon-Tumar is the lowest level UFC fight imaginable, and I kinda like Caolan too lol

 

[EndlessCritic]

Oddmakers deemed him a bum at +280 vs an 0-1 bum.

Vucenic lost a short notice debut to an elite opponent and is 1-1 with Paul Hughes you goofball. This isn't a case of Duncan being a bum. Vucenic is getting a lot of respect.

 

[Ruv]

Yes I won just over $35 on my singles bets on Roman Dolidze last week. Roman is the UFC's Tribal Chief.

This week going with Leon and Jan. Hope both guys can come through with the win.

 

[doozer]

Jan Blachowicz for me, often gets underrated by the oddsmakers, I think he gets it to the mat and Ulberg struggles

Also there is the question of if Jan can survive his early assault. Yes the speed and power are scary but Jan went to split decision with Alex Perrera and has virtually never been finished.

 

[doozer]

I picked Chris Padilla at +100 but now the odds have changed. So as of now I pick Caolan Loughran

At -105 I would still call Chris an underdog. Though you could say it is a pick ‘em. But they can’t both be favourites, and Chris is slightest bit down on the odds.

 

[doozer]

Edwards, Holland, Jan.

No idea how Edwards ended up as the underdog against that midget Brady.

Nice . The 3 I’m looking at too, if for some reason I change my mind about wood.

 

[doozer]

Both

Both female underdogs

Well it worked for you last time!

 

[TankAbbott4Eva]

Also there is the question of if Jan can survive his early assault. Yes the speed and power are scary but Jan went to split decision with Alex Perrera and has virtually never been finished.

Just did some googling, interesting stat this

 

[doozer]

Yes I won just over $35 on my singles bets on Roman Dolidze last week. Roman is the UFC's Tribal Chief.

This week going with Leon and Jan. Hope both guys can come through with the win.

I like your picks, I hope you can cash again!

 

[doozer]

Just did some googling, interesting stat this

That is definitely an impressive stat. Some people just get underestimated over and over.

 

[TITS]

Vucenic lost a short notice debut to an elite opponent and is 1-1 with Paul Hughes you goofball. This isn't a case of Duncan being a bum. Vucenic is getting a lot of respect.

He lost a short notice debut to a 2-2 overhyped can. Won a split decision over Paul Hughes when they were 6-0/6-1, big fucking deal. If Duncan is so good, why don't you throw some money down on him.

 

[jeff7b9]

I think so yeah.

I dont see him as a favourite here. people like to criticize colby A LOT for fighting aged out fighters and there is truth to it....it very much applies to leon edwards.

RDA, Cerrone, Diaz, Usman, Colby all fight that same critique. Brady is a guy about his age and has strong grappling. grappling was key in his title loss.

Ok. I see it now.

Watching Belal vs Brady.
Belal is pushing him back, bullying.

Leon ain't walking anyone down.
Definitely not a strong wrestler like Brady.

So when they are standing, Brady is gonna back him up to the fence and Leon isn't great about pulling the trigger, especially early.

It will be some wall and maul and to whatever extent that progresses to ground and pound. Which I think I recall Leon defends and neutralizes pretty well.

Unless Leon manages to pull a Mohammed Ali and chin him fighting backwards, which I don't see likely, I bet it goes like I just said.

I could be wrong. I am wrong all the time, but I definitely see what people are talking a about.
I also learned Leon has allowed a LOT of TDs in his recent fights. 20 or so TD conceded in his last 4. Thats bad.

 

[doozer]

Well Gani the Greek really messed me up. He picked against Wood for his top pick of the night. I was feeling very comfortable but he is the guy I most respect the opinion of. But there is no one else I’m really comfortable picking. In the end I guess I’m going to go with Leon Edward’s.

 

[doozer]

One is 3-1 in the UFC. The other is 3-2 in the UFC.

Neither are bums.

You called that one

 

[EndlessCritic]

You called that one

I actually no-played both fights making me the bum.

Chris Duncan is like the Scottish poirier. Real potential.