UFC Fight Night 137

[Danis_champ]

Ok.. been away for 10 days and now I just get to see this card.

.Also Francisco is like 40 years old. +214 for ML looks great for Evan IMO.

Dude it's like saying DC is 40 years old..
Trinaldo's prime began in his late 30's. I doubt he is too old. In fight years he is very young. Dunham is old and crying about his medical bills and money. Bad mindset to go enemy territory. Trinaldo fucks him up. OAM has pillow fists and was able to put Evan away

 

[mkess101]

Some props I hit:

Anders dec +655. Depends on how aggressive Santos comes out, but if he goes for the kill early I could see him gassing and Anders being content to potshot him for the last half of the fight. Santos gas tank is okay WHEN he doesn't go balls out for the early finish. We'll see how aggressive he is I guess.

Do Bronx itd at -190. WAY better than paying -370 for his ML imo. Dude is probably the most aggressive sub hunter in MMA, he literally does nothing but attempt subs anytime there is a hint of a grappling exchange. He does not care about points or position. He's a good enough grappler that he usually finds the sub too, esp against inferior competition. Did 2.85u on this, that's how much I like this prop.

Barao dec +220. He's just not the killer he used to be, or even close. But he should beat Ewell. I think good chance he cruises to an easy dec win.

 

[LiquidNuke]

I think I've sussed out how Souza/Alex Williams goes, tears and everything.

 

[buckwheatloaf]

did anyone wanna bet on thales. hes taller, longer, younger and brazilian. he started as the favorite but hes the slight underdog now. hes retiring after so idk what that means.

 

[null]

Sorry, but my $50 risk/win max bets gonna ruin these lines for you fellas: I hit Barao ITD +225, Robertson ITD +160, Leites ITD +380, C. Oliveira ITD -190, Souza ITD -260, Trinaldo ITD +170.

 

[mkess101]

Sorry, but my $50 risk/win max bets gonna ruin these lines for you fellas: I hit Barao ITD +225, Robertson ITD +160, Leites ITD +380, C. Oliveira ITD -190, Souza ITD -260, Trinaldo ITD +170.

Do Bronx to -215, still value but get on board now guys, it's just gonna climb I'm guessing.

 

[Danis_champ]

For all the Lombard haters who say he is on a 5 fight losing streak and old..

He was beating the crap out of Magny first two rounds, high paced fight and he gassed
Should have gotten the dec against Hendricks
Was dominating A.Smith for 2,5 rounds until he got caught
Knocked out CB.

AND HECTOR HAS NEVER BEEN SUBMITTED IN HIS CAREER!

Leites has gas tank issues as well.

 

[LiquidNuke]

For all the Lombard haters who say he is on a 5 fight losing streak and old..

He was beating the crap out of Magny first two rounds, high paced fight and he gassed
Should have gotten the dec against Hendricks
Was dominating A.Smith for 2,5 rounds until he got caught
Knocked out CB.

AND HECTOR HAS NEVER BEEN SUBMITTED IN HIS CAREER!

Leites has gas tank issues as well.

Why not just take Lombard by decision at +350 then? He is 40, and Thales doesn't exactly have durability issues. He's actually on average quite tough...

 

[ill800]

Stabbing nog dec +400

 

[burge13]

Saunders/Moraes doesnt go distance -150 looks appealing. Saunders chin is shot, he's aggressive which lends itself to finishes either way. Both submission threats

Moraes has gone the distance more than I'd like though. Any thoughts here?

 

[null]

Lil Bog by 3 round decision +400 is nice against low output Alvey if he doesn't get caught by a counter-punch as he moves in on Smilin' Sam.

 

[theTKDguy]

I wouldn't call them locks, but I rarely use that word. Both Zaleski and Cowboy can be sloppy and reckless at times, and both have been dropped multiple times in the UFC. Do you know much about their opponents? Or are you just parlaying them because they're -400-600 favorites and they "should win"? Renata I think is pretty safe though, played her at -600, she's way better than her opponent and not the same anyhting can happen-factor in female strawweights. But with welterweights a lot of unexpected shit can happen, Cowboy lost to Yancy as a -400 something favorite

tbh, i just looked at their oponents' records. there's not much into it really, cowboy and elizeu can be sloppy yes but their opponents are waaay overmatched here. a lw fighting at ww in short notice and a point fighter and grappler vs cowboy? he's a big strong guy with legit grappling skills himself. i think they win

 

[Gugabe]

Some props I hit:

Anders dec +655. Depends on how aggressive Santos comes out, but if he goes for the kill early I could see him gassing and Anders being content to potshot him for the last half of the fight. Santos gas tank is okay WHEN he doesn't go balls out for the early finish. We'll see how aggressive he is I guess.

Do Bronx itd at -190. WAY better than paying -370 for his ML imo. Dude is probably the most aggressive sub hunter in MMA, he literally does nothing but attempt subs anytime there is a hint of a grappling exchange. He does not care about points or position. He's a good enough grappler that he usually finds the sub too, esp against inferior competition. Did 2.85u on this, that's how much I like this prop.

Barao dec +220. He's just not the killer he used to be, or even close. But he should beat Ewell. I think good chance he cruises to an easy dec win.

Ewell's sub defense looks pretty bad, and Barao's always been a killer on the ground. I feel like Barao Sub>>Dec>>>>KO in terms of likelihood. Hell, if I'm on Barao I want to see it over ASAP.

 

[mkess101]

Ewell's sub defense looks pretty bad, and Barao's always been a killer on the ground. I feel like Barao Sub>>Dec>>>>KO in terms of likelihood. Hell, if I'm on Barao I want to see it over ASAP.

Yeah I just think it's more likely Barao gets the better of a relatively boring kickboxing match where he doesn't even try to take it to the mat. If he does and he gets Ewell down, I totally agree. But I kind of think Barao is only gonna do that if he's losing the striking exchanges, and I think he's still good enough to do fine standing here.

 

[mkess101]

For all the Lombard haters who say he is on a 5 fight losing streak and old..

He was beating the crap out of Magny first two rounds, high paced fight and he gassed
Should have gotten the dec against Hendricks
Was dominating A.Smith for 2,5 rounds until he got caught
Knocked out CB.

AND HECTOR HAS NEVER BEEN SUBMITTED IN HIS CAREER!

Leites has gas tank issues as well.

Lombard is also most likely one of the biggest losers of USADA becoming a governing body. Plus you have the Brazil factor if it goes to the cards. No way I could imagine paying juice on Lombard here.

 

[zeckdo]

I wouldn't call them locks, but I rarely use that word. Both Zaleski and Cowboy can be sloppy and reckless at times, and both have been dropped multiple times in the UFC. Do you know much about their opponents? Or are you just parlaying them because they're -400-600 favorites and they "should win"? Renata I think is pretty safe though, played her at -600, she's way better than her opponent and not the same anyhting can happen-factor in female strawweights. But with welterweights a lot of unexpected shit can happen, Cowboy lost to Yancy as a -400 something favorite

thought you were crazy when you said he was -400 but you were right. I bet on Yancy in that fight but have no idea what the odds I got were.

edit: just checked, +180.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Ok.. been away for 10 days and now I just get to see this card.

Big on Barao. I dont care if he is not the same anymore.. I got him around -112 or something like that and against a regional level guy? In Brazil? Those are great odds. I will not even be mad if I lost that one.

Small on Dunham. I get Trinaldo should be favored but Dunham is really scrappy. Also Francisco is like 40 years old. +214 for ML looks great for Evan IMO.

Dont trust Anders skills and Thiago chin. Pass. Should be fun tho.


Do you trust Leites gas tank? We know Lombard gasses but Leites is not a cardio machine by any means.

That fight is tricky. In their best days I would say that Lombard wins easy... but now both are passed their prime and the question is who is worse.

Call me crazy but this fight reminds me Leites fight against Sam, also low volume and a counter puncher. One difference is that Lombard has this dynamic puncher attack which he uses in some moments of the fight. Imo Leites has better cardio than Lombard, tricky fight

 

[weedreference]

Do Bronx to -215, still value but get on board now guys, it's just gonna climb I'm guessing.

Giagos by esophagus punch.

Seriously, the Oliveira ITD line is the only one that's remotely bettable. This is the most unbettable fight of the year imo. Do Bronx is a terrible stylistic matchup for Giagos, but Giagos at least has heart, so can't consider touching Oliveira ML.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Giagos by esophagus punch.

Seriously, the Oliveira ITD line is the only one that's remotely bettable. This is the most unbettable fight of the year imo. Do Bronx is a terrible stylistic matchup for Giagos, but Giagos at least has heart, so can't consider touching Oliveira ML.

I dont trust Oliviera even against a bum.

 

[raketmannen]

thought you were crazy when you said he was -400 but you were right. I bet on Yancy in that fight but have no idea what the odds I got were.

edit: just checked, +180.

A lot of money came in on Cowboy on fight night, got Yancy +300 right before the event started