UFC FIGHT NIGHT 131

ill800 said:
I think he’s done it before and been successful
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Yes, it's the third time that he is going to do it.
He did it against Jouban and against Jordan Mein.
 
NorthernLights said:
Sounds like a bad idea to be fasting during your training camp, but he's done it before during his camp for the Jordan Mein fight and I'm not sure that it's such a big deal.
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I think I heard Joe Rogan say that he sleeps during the day and eats and trains at night, still not ideal but makes much more sense that way.
 
I am not trying to be Mr. Negative to the Pichel backers, but I just watched tape on both guys and I feel like the only path to victory for Pichel is a ko. I do not see how his skillset can win rounds vs Gillespie other than landing a knockdown per round and he does not even throw much volume or close distance well to bank on that happening at a reliable rate. Yes, Gillespie has holes defensively, but he also tenaciously chain wrestles with a variety of takedown attacks anytime someone starts landing on him on the feet and Gillespie has a slick folkstyle wrestling game to control opponents coupled with a pretty solid passing game.

I understand it is a small risk throwing on Pichel, but even getting him around +400 doesn't even seem that worth it to me. He either has to land the ko or land knockdowns throughout rounds to win a decision. I doubt either are very high percentage.
 
mkess101 said:
He is the definition of shot. So is Jake, but less so.
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Sure, that’s what I said too before. I think I’ll try to cut my losses, but I’ll keep my eye on that ko prop.
 
Lightbringer said:
I am not trying to be Mr. Negative to the Pichel backers, but I just watched tape on both guys and I feel like the only path to victory for Pichel is a ko. I do not see how his skillset can win rounds vs Gillespie other than landing a knockdown per round and he does not even throw much volume or close distance well to bank on that happening at a reliable rate. Yes, Gillespie has holes defensively, but he also tenaciously chain wrestles with a variety of takedown attacks anytime someone starts landing on him on the feet and Gillespie has a slick folkstyle wrestling game to control opponents coupled with a pretty solid passing game.

I understand it is a small risk throwing on Pichel, but even getting him around +400 doesn't even seem that worth it to me. He either has to land the ko or land knockdowns throughout rounds to win a decision. I doubt either are very high percentage.
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good post. any idea what pichel is like off his back?
 
Lightbringer said:
I am not trying to be Mr. Negative to the Pichel backers, but I just watched tape on both guys and I feel like the only path to victory for Pichel is a ko. I do not see how his skillset can win rounds vs Gillespie other than landing a knockdown per round and he does not even throw much volume or close distance well to bank on that happening at a reliable rate. Yes, Gillespie has holes defensively, but he also tenaciously chain wrestles with a variety of takedown attacks anytime someone starts landing on him on the feet and Gillespie has a slick folkstyle wrestling game to control opponents coupled with a pretty solid passing game.

I understand it is a small risk throwing on Pichel, but even getting him around +400 doesn't even seem that worth it to me. He either has to land the ko or land knockdowns throughout rounds to win a decision. I doubt either are very high percentage.
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At +450 with minimal risk, he was worth it to me. He's gonna have a significant advantage standing. Yes, obviously I think the most likely outcome is that he gets held down for 15 minutes. But I think his hands are good enough that he'll have a few chances to land something that could hurt Gregor. I'm not counting on it, but then I also risked so little that it doesn't matter much.
 
I like Jake, his power is enough to deal with Saunders
I feel like Saunders is a one trick pony and we've seen it

I'm all in on Gregor
I dont care how good the odds on Vinc are.. he's loosing

I don't think Sam Alvey has enough ko power to rattle Gian
I see Gian winning and I can't believe I'm saying that
 
Jamah said:
I'm really interested in the over/under, not so much on their ML.
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100% this. ML on this fight: ignored. Props, o/u on this fight: will be watching like a hawk.

Could be some gold here once everything is released, we'll see.
 
mkess101 said:
100% this. ML on this fight: ignored. Props, o/u on this fight: will be watching like a hawk.

Could be some gold here once everything is released, we'll see.
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Ends ITD opened -170 about an hour ago
 
piglord said:
good post. any idea what pichel is like off his back?
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It doesn't look that great at all. The only fight where someone went for TDs on him and put him down was Khabilov in 2012 (It was a long time ago, but I doubt Pichel who is now 35 significantly improved his defensive wrestling and he is not consistently defending takedowns or get up vs a way better wrestler who has about 30 different ways to get you down). Kabilov used a sweep single (a go to move Gillespie used in college wrestling while wrestling at Edinboro, the international circuit, and in the UFC) to get Pichel up against the cage and start getting him down super easily with different techniques. If you watch that fight, Pichel tries to get back up by giving up his back (Gastelum style) and Khabilov starts using suplexes to mat return him. If Pichel does that same escape vs Gillespie, Gillespie will just put his hooks in like he does in every fight. I am going to probably be playing Gillespie inside the distance depending on the line. Gillespie should wear him out and get super dominant positions and likely finish him.
 
Sadistics said:
Ends ITD opened -170 about an hour ago
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Bah, was at the pool with my kid and missed it. -215 now.

Maybe a little value but smaller play for me than -170 would have been.
 
Oracle is 5u on Rivera. Does this thread still have faith in the chosen one?
 
iGnP said:
Oracle is 5u on Rivera. Does this thread still have faith in the chosen one?
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I have faith there will be a shit ton of debate after the fight about who won.

I'm predicting Rivera by SD. He lands more, Magic lands what look like harder strikes. Back and forth competitive fight where the odds are right about what they should have been. Cannot imagine going big on this either way pre fight. If something looks different live that's a different story, but all the guys here who think Magic has such amazing value are seeing things I'm not. This is gonna be razor close imo.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Don't do it captain! He doesn't have the power!
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First I thought that Saunders’ rubber guard is useless against a strong dude like Ellenberger, but you could be right. Maybe Saunders has power only to daze him and would have to finish with a sub.

Also I just really need to try to keep in mind, that plan A is NOT to bet Saunders at all.
 
mkess101 said:
I have faith there will be a shit ton of debate after the fight about who won.

I'm predicting Rivera by SD. He lands more, Magic lands what look like harder strikes. Back and forth competitive fight where the odds are right about what they should have been. Cannot imagine going big on this either way pre fight. If something looks different live that's a different story, but all the guys here who think Magic has such amazing value are seeing things I'm not. This is gonna be razor close imo.
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Yea i actually cant decide if im gonna bet on it or not. The rest of the odds look like crap so I might have a second week in a row w no action lol
 
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