UFC FIGHT NIGHT 131

[K1fan]

Rencountre looks like a good dog. His only losses are an SD and UD (avenged the SD) and is on a 4 finish win streak. I wouldnt underestimate him.

Also he has reach and height advantage.But short notice tho.Gonna take a small stab at him.

 

[northsofia]

Maan, Ellenberger looked horrible on the scale, i am thinking a play on Saunders. Jouban needed some time to finish him and Jake doesnt have more power than him. If he doenst get the finish in the first, this will be a long night for him. 0.5u Saunders @2.70

 

[Sham5916910]

Also he has reach and height advantage.But short notice tho.Gonna take a small stab at him.

Doesnt use his reach at all he steps into the pocket to land

 

[Lightbringer]

Anyone have thoughts on Aguilar / Esquibel? After watching tape I essentially see an even striking battle and Aguilar has a takedown and grappling advantage if she decides to wrestle which she usually tends to do. Aguilar is -125 now and with that grappling edge I feel she is a solid play, she has a solid top game and uses back riding with hooks well which far worse grapplers have used to out position Esquibel on several occasions.

 

[DarkneT]

Anyone up for a debate on Alvey and Gian?

Having watched literally all their fights and bet on nearly all of them I seriously like Gian as an underdog
While he is a bit of a can, at least he's a real LHW, and fighting an opponent that will not engage in wrestling, he will literally be able to do what he likes to do
..walk forward chucking bungalows

Can sams chin even hang? I doubt it, plus Gian COULD but probably won't follow the blue print of just kicking his legs out..
Add in New York for the judges decision

I love Sam and I've made a ton betting him in certain spots, particularly on draftkings but.. here I'm with villante and it hurts to say that

 

[lilbloaty]

Anyone up for a debate on Alvey and Gian?

Having watched literally all their fights and bet on nearly all of them I seriously like Gian as an underdog
While he is a bit of a can, at least he's a real LHW, and fighting an opponent that will not engage in wrestling, he will literally be able to do what he likes to do
..walk forward chucking bungalows

Can sams chin even hang? I doubt it, plus Gian COULD but probably won't follow the blue print of just kicking his legs out..
Add in New York for the judges decision

I love Sam and I've made a ton betting him in certain spots, particularly on draftkings but.. here I'm with villante and it hurts to say that

pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass pass

 

[Yotsuya]

Maan, Ellenberger looked horrible on the scale, i am thinking a play on Saunders. Jouban needed some time to finish him and Jake doesnt have more power than him. If he doenst get the finish in the first, this will be a long night for him. 0.5u Saunders @2.70

I remember that he also looked really miserable both at weigh-ins and when walking to the cage against Perry. He does not seem to enjoy this sport anymore where as Jeet Kune Jew looks as spirited as ever. Fuck it, I’m with you! 0.5u

 

[piglord]

Anyone have thoughts on Aguilar / Esquibel? After watching tape I essentially see an even striking battle and Aguilar has a takedown and grappling advantage if she decides to wrestle which she usually tends to do. Aguilar is -125 now and with that grappling edge I feel she is a solid play, she has a solid top game and uses back riding with hooks well which far worse grapplers have used to out position Esquibel on several occasions.

i think aguilar is actually the better boxer too, so yeah i don't hate -125 at all so long as she's not a shell.

 

[Lightbringer]

i think aguilar is actually the better boxer too, so yeah i don't hate -125 at all so long as she's not a shell.

The main x factor I saw standing is Aguilar consistently throws an effective leg kick. If you watch the Gadelha fight she landed that a lot (even though she got outstruck in other areas but Casey and Gadelha are entirely different animals).

 

[piglord]

The main x factor I saw standing is Aguilar consistently throws an effective leg kick. If you watch the Gadelha fight she landed that a lot (even though she got outstruck in other areas but Casey and Gadelha are entirely different animals).

yeah her leg kicks are good she also throws straight down the pipe. jodie is there to be hit. jodie too wide with her shots and hits air a lot.

 

[piglord]

interesting david teymur has been liking a few of my tweets (including the event breakdown article) which suggests he's aware of nik's guilotine and isn't going to indulge in the grappling exchanges at all.

 

[raketmannen]

While he is a bit of a can, at least he's a real LHW, and fighting an opponent that will not engage in wrestling, he will literally be able to do what he likes to do
..walk forward chucking bungalows

Can sams chin even hang? I doubt it, plus Gian COULD but probably won't follow the blue print of just kicking his legs out..

Walking forward and chucking bungalows against Alvey with Gians complete lack of headmovement and abillity to pick up on what his opponent is gonna throw seems like a bad idea. And is it really Alveys chin your questioning in this fight and not Villantes?
It's so hard to bet on anyone in this fight thought because if Villante for once would follow a gameplan he could, as you say, so easily just kick Alveys legs out and coast to a decision.

 

[conmemay]

interesting david teymur has been liking a few of my tweets (including the event breakdown article) which suggests he's aware of nik's guilotine and isn't going to indulge in the grappling exchanges at all.

Piglord whats ur read on his brother fight? Daniel is not as good as david but hes no bum either. Most important is probably his pace. He fights at such a hard pace that its gonn be hard for him to keep that pace.

 

[pytycrys]

I think Alvey-Villante and Aguilar-Esquibel could go either way.

Alvey can catch a power shot and get the knockout, Villante can kickbox his way to a decision due to higher volume output.

Aguilar may have the wrestling and ground game advantage, but Esquibel has the boxing advantage standing probably.

 

[pytycrys]

My 2 cents on Teymur - Arce. Probably one of the few fights that I have a lean on, pretty shit card in terms of betting.

Daniel Teymur vs Julio Arce


Daniel Teymur

-Muay thai and Kickboxing background

-training at Allstars with his brother and all the beasts

-short notice against Henry and also a weigh class up – looked very gassed in rounds 2 and 3

-viciour leg kicks and very heavy hands – had Henry in lots of trouble in the first round. I think full camp Teymur smashes Henry

-has a quite bad tendency to heave his chin up


Julio Arce

-Golden Gloves boxing winner and a “MMA black belt” under Tiger Schulmann

-good hands but susceptible to getting hit, was getting beaten on the foot by Petties in the DWTNCS fight in round 1..

-he’s not necessarily a big hitter but has good technical boxing

-he looked better against Ige but Ige is a grappler and his striking is sub-par


I think in this match-up Teymur will have a lot of success with his leg kicks. I can even argue that he has more power in the hands. I think the odds are based on that short-notice loss of Teymur but I think he would have been a big favourite if he got the KO in R1 against Henry.

I think odds should be evens at the most, if not Teymur to be a fav. I’m happy to take at +182 Teymur ML and I think Teymur dec +575 has lots of value in the US as well considering this will be a standing battle.

 

[DarkneT]

Walking forward and chucking bungalows against Alvey with Gians complete lack of headmovement and abillity to pick up on what his opponent is gonna throw seems like a bad idea. And is it really Alveys chin your questioning in this fight and not Villantes?
It's so hard to bet on anyone in this fight thought because if Villante for once would follow a gameplan he could, as you say, so easily just kick Alveys legs out and coast to a decision.

Forgive me

But I do think Sam Alvey has made a career from knocking out chinny guys

Size difference, I think Gian will be ok here I truly do

 

[pytycrys]

Vivi

 

[thewiggo]

For me David Teymur is a good pick, you can tell he's a very cerebral fighter with a very high fight IQ.
Paired with the experience of elite level Muay Thai I can see either a very dominant UD win or a nasty stoppage.

I just dont believe Nik Lentz will be able to stop Davids game plan, but I can see David negating Niks.

Daniel on the other hand has a much more difficult fight on his hands, Arce is up and coming with great boxing and sound jits. Youd think Daniel would apply a heavy kicking game considering Arce is likely to be in boxing range, but we will just have to see.
This one will be close but I can see an Arce decision.. just.

 

[MT6ix]

Anyone up for a debate on Alvey and Gian?

Having watched literally all their fights and bet on nearly all of them I seriously like Gian as an underdog
While he is a bit of a can, at least he's a real LHW, and fighting an opponent that will not engage in wrestling, he will literally be able to do what he likes to do
..walk forward chucking bungalows

Can sams chin even hang? I doubt it, plus Gian COULD but probably won't follow the blue print of just kicking his legs out..
Add in New York for the judges decision

I love Sam and I've made a ton betting him in certain spots, particularly on draftkings but.. here I'm with villante and it hurts to say that

I wouldn't be so confident betting Villante in this fight.

He has one of the highest strikes absorbed per minute stats in the UFC around 6 which means he is really really hittable. Alvey doesn't throw a lot of volume but hard to think Alvey doesn't land a big shot within 3 rounds.

 

[piglord]

Piglord whats ur read on his brother fight? Daniel is not as good as david but hes no bum either. Most important is probably his pace. He fights at such a hard pace that its gonn be hard for him to keep that pace.

yeah honestly i didn't look into it because of teymur's r1 finishes and the fact his only ufc fight was on short notice. now that the lines are getting wide i'm checking out some tape. i think arce has a great skillset for ascending the ranks though.