UFC FIGHT NIGHT 131

[MT6ix]

why is Lauren Murphy such a big underdog to a 3-2 fighter ? She has ufc experience at least.

Line is getting steep but Eubanks is the rightful favourite. Should be somewhere around -130 to -140.

As you seen on the Gaethje/Alvarez TUF series, she beat a lot of fighters ranked ahead of her which shows that she is improving quite a bit. She is only going to get better training out of Mark Henry's team with Eddie Alvarez and Frankie Edgar. She can be stiff at times and falls in love with her striking too much which is decent and has some heat/power especially for women's mma. She has a really good shot and double for women's mma and she is a really decorated bjj grappler with lots of accolades. This is her best path to victory in every fight.

I just see her working her way inside with strikes and taking Murphy down and working her ground and pound. She just seems really hungry and mentally tougher than Lauren Murphy. She is really physically strong for the division but she has problems making weight.

 

[Stunna77]

I think I am going to have to take a stab at Eduardo at +245. The fight will be purely on the feet and to be honest, Wood has shown more defensive holes in his striking than Eduardo. Eduardo has NASTY leg kicks on the inside and outside leg and has some great pop as well as great fundamental head movement which will make it hard for Wood to land his straight punches and left hook. I know Wood is an explosive striker and Eduardo is 37, but Eduardo has shown no regression from a striking perspective and I do not see why Wood should be an implied 75 percent winner in a fight that will be strictly on the feet.

Welcome aboard. Let’s hope ed isn’t too old to make us money

 

[Wiktoruspro]

my thoughts:

http://piglordmma.com/2018/05/31/ufc-fight-night-rivera-vs-moraes-betting-predictions/

winter can't last forever!

I agree, except Moraes and Eduardo. Who would you pick if the odds were at evens?

 

[burge13]

I agree, except Moraes and Eduardo. Who would you pick if the odds were at evens?

It isn't even so it's irrelevant. Betting and picking a winner are 2 completely different things.

Nobody knows more about football than Tom Brady but put odds in front of him & $1000 and he's blowing through that money. It's a different skill. Pointless question

 

[Gugabe]

I agree, except Moraes and Eduardo. Who would you pick if the odds were at evens?

Play the line, not the man. Most of the money in MMA betting is between +110 & +180, there's like 5% in that range and like 20% in eliminating the absurdities.

 

[Shoulder]

Unibet has Ellenberger R1-2 @ 2.60 and I’m taking 1.5U. Saunders is more shot and Jake still has power.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Play the line, not the man. Most of the money in MMA betting is between +110 & +180, there's like 5% in that range and like 20% in eliminating the absurdities.

I like to play winners not lines, what is the sense of playing a +500 line if the guy doesnt win

 

[Gugabe]

I like to play winners not lines, what is the sense of playing a +500 line if the guy doesnt win

Value? Just because somebody's not 50+% to win doesn't mean they aren't the value side in a fight.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Value? Just because somebody's not 50+% to win doesn't mean they aren't the value side in a fight.

So you would bet a +1000 Lobov against Aldo ?

 

[Gugabe]

So you would bet a +1000 Lobov against Aldo ?

I'd probably want more than that for Lobov since he doesn't have game-changing power, but I'd take a guy like Derek Brunson over just about anybody at MW if you gave me +500 or better.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I'd probably want more than that for Lobov since he doesn't have game-changing power, but I'd take a guy like Derek Brunson over just about anybody at MW if you gave me +500 or better.

ok that makes sense, anyway lets get back on topic.

 

[Yotsuya]

It’s Wood’s UFC debut and his first fight outside UK. Eduardo is no pushover, he has given his chin 12 months rest, can hold his own against strikers and has means to slow Wood down with leg kicks. I like The Prospect’s dec line at 4.2.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I hope my point/counter point (albeit kind of weak) about Eduardo/Wood didn't come across like I was advocating a play on Woods moneyline at steep odds. I definitely wasn't saying that.

 

[Yotsuya]

I hope my point/counter point (albeit kind of weak) about Eduardo/Wood didn't come across like I was advocating a play on Woods moneyline at steep odds. I definitely wasn't saying that.

Nope, you said that the line is too wide.

 

[ChoKuRei]

Still liking jarred brooks @ +155, wonder how the line would be if he had been givin the nod vs Deiveson Fig in his last fight

The monkey god is legit but so is Jose, feel like this line is off

 

[Sadistics]

Not out yet & Berger also has a paper mache chin. While I think it is more likely Berger wins than Saunders I'd cap the 1.5 around -180 to -200 so why wouldn't I take that?

His chin has actually looked pretty solid. He took an elbow from hell that would put anyone out in his last fight. Before that he was eating shots fine vs Masvidal before getting his toe stuck in the fence. Took a spinning hook kick from WB that didn't fully put him out. Lawler TKOed him with a knee, but that looked more like he wanted a way out after breaking his hand, he didn't look hurt.

 

[null]

Regarding weigh ins.

This is an outrage.

 

[VitorBelfoTRT]

Rencountre looks like a good dog. His only losses are an SD and UD (avenged the SD) and is on a 4 finish win streak. I wouldnt underestimate him.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

All fighters on weight. Staredowns at 11am ET. Still finding out if there's a stream for that or not.

 

[t6p]

All fighters on weight. Staredowns at 11am ET. Still finding out if there's a stream for that or not.