UFC FIGHT NIGHT 129

Anyone find Reyes' fight with Kelly Gray? Really wanna see his cardio over 3 rounds.

Everytime he fights I try to find it, don't think it's available anywhere online. You can see him gtd in an early ammy fight, 3 min rounds though
 
I watched tape and I feel like Reyes has an advantage standing with length and output and will land a lot of kicks. And if you have an advantage standing against Cannonier, you should be a sizable favorite because Cannonier doesn't have the ability to win fights doing anything else like wrestling. Cannonier also is not very accurate with his strikes and does not close distance very well so landing on a much longer fighter like Reyes may be a difficult task.

Cannonier also gives up his back as his main route of getting back to his feet. Although this is a safe escape vs many fighters, Reyes looks to have a good body triangle which can be a round winning event here. I feel like Reyes should be a play here, but there is still lack of tape on him. I am going to keep digging.
 
think cannetti could be live. cummings + money was line of the year. usman should roll even juiced as he is. like reyes but fuck -200. think i like pantoja at pick 'em but i have a feeling his cardio isn't that good?
 
Suarez **probably** does just hold Grasso down for 3 rounds. But her striking sucks and it's WMMA. FFS you guys bet her all the way to -460??

Fine, making me put a unit on Grasso +320. Fuckers.
 
Fuck all worth playing. Pantoja's my only big exposure.
 
So many openers I would've smashed, but before they hit my books the lines are completely fucked. I think I'm only going to have a couple plays for this event and keep my BR loaded for livebetting.

But who knows, maybe I end up on all kinds of things before the event starts as I usually do. Let's see what happens, but damn I'm frustrated about these openers.
 
Why ? Moreno made progress since tuf
They've both made progress, and I don't like opportunist grapplers with shitty takedown games. Fading them is like my #1 MMA gambling rule. Pantoja's the better wrestler, and likely the better grappler once it actually hits the floor. Moreno's gonna either need Pantoja to gas (Ortiz set a hell of a pace on him, though. I don't think Moreno's got that in him), or find a random finish somewhere.
 
How is Grasso's TDD? Any good betting her decision prop? Or Even just a win?
 
I like Pantoja, Praz at +140, and Cannonier above +200. Pantoja is the best line IMO.
 
I like Pantoja, Praz at +140, and Cannonier above +200. Pantoja is the best line IMO.
I would agree. The odds dictated my plays. Praz was easy to take at +odds and even at -100. People betting Cummins are hoping praz gasses.
 
I would agree. The odds dictated my plays. Praz was easy to take at +odds and even at -100. People betting Cummins are hoping praz gasses.

Cummins is really poor off of his back. He doesn't get put there often, but if he does, I think he'll be stuck there.
 
I would agree. The odds dictated my plays. Praz was easy to take at +odds and even at -100. People betting Cummins are hoping praz gasses.

no i just dont think praz' style is viable when he's the one at a weight and size disadvantage for once, especially against a good wrestler.
 
Reyes didnt fight anyone legit, this is his first test. At this odds its dog or pass.
I like Barzola, quite ok odds and he should win this with his wrestling.
 
I would agree. The odds dictated my plays. Praz was easy to take at +odds and even at -100. People betting Cummins are hoping praz gasses.
no i just dont think praz' style is viable when he's the one at a weight and size disadvantage for once, especially against a good wrestler.

Absolutely disagree with you Ill and agree with Pig. You are betting on Praz being able to wrestle a guy with pretty damn good wrestling himself and almost two weight classes bigger than him or outstirke a guy with decent boxing and an 8 inch reach advantage. Praz debuted at ww against Paulo Thiago and lost, then went on to beat quite a few past 145ers by bullying them. I don't think he is going to be the hammer in this one and he probably does end up gassing being the nail, but I don't think he even needs to for Cummins to win.

Just a tough draw for his return to ww. IMO guys like Cummins are the reason he killed himself to make 155. Oh and he is almost 37....and the avg height of a 135er.
 
Absolutely disagree with you Ill and agree with Pig. You are betting on Praz being able to wrestle a guy with pretty damn good wrestling himself and almost two weight classes bigger than him or outstirke a guy with decent boxing and an 8 inch reach advantage. Praz debuted at ww against Paulo Thiago and lost, then went on to beat quite a few past 145ers by bullying them. I don't think he is going to be the hammer in this one and he probably does end up gassing being the nail, but I don't think he even needs to for Cummins to win.

Just a tough draw for his return to ww. IMO guys like Cummins are the reason he killed himself to make 155. Oh and he is almost 37....and the avg height of a 135er.
This. Cummings is going to be the much bigger man and much better conditioned man coming into the fight. Ponzi kept a high pace against him and Cummings went tit-for-tat all the way to a decision with him.

Prazeres visibly slows down in the 2nd round of every fight.


I also like the experience factor in this fight too, as Cummings regularly fought MWs and LHWs throughout the first half of his career, and Prazeres has been fighting smaller guys, and past-prime guys like Burkman. If Prazeres beat Burkman 10 years ago, you could justify the line. I like Cummings even in the 230-250 range.
 
FWIW I ended up with 5u on Cummings at an average price of +120. I cap him north of -200 so was extremely happy seeing + odds at openers and then again for a small period of time later yesterday.
 
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