UFC Austin: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan: Austin, Texas: December 2, 2023

[Oblivian]

no veronica hardy aka veronica macedo.

she looked awful prior to her hiatus, and was off for 4 years. her return fight she was a massive underdog to miller. she won the fight but it was mostly because miller kept pulling guard chasing subs. there's literally no evidence that hardy is an improved fighter.

she's fighting an undefeated decent athlete. no way hardy should be even.

Miller was pulling guard because she was getting stuffed on every takedown attempt and getting completely outclassed standing. Honestly, it was a completely shutdown from Hardy that either showed she is drastically improved or Miller is a ton worse than people expect. Honestly, I think it's a combo of both because it appeared those odds should have literally been flipped after watching that fight.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Miller was pulling guard because she was getting stuffed on every takedown attempt and getting completely outclassed standing. Honestly, it was a completely shutdown from Hardy that either showed she is drastically improved or Miller is a ton worse than people expect. Honestly, I think it's a combo of both because it appeared those odds should have literally been flipped after watching that fight.

Agree that Hardy looked really good in that fight, much better than expected. The footwork and speed was actually very impressive. She could stay on the outside and move in and out faster than Horth can react to and win a decision.
But, for me it comes down to size. I just think Horth is going to be too big and too strong. Horth being massive for the weigh-class and Hardy being small for the weight-class. This is still mid level WMMA, size matters a lot here. If Horth can get hold of Hardy and push her against the cage, I can see her having success. I also think that her power will be valued higher than the output of Hardy in the eyes of the judges.
Close fight, but I think Horth takes it.

 

[Oblivian]

Agree that Hardy looked really good in that fight, much better than expected. The footwork and speed was actually very impressive. She could stay on the outside and move in and out faster than Horth can react to and win a decision.
But, for me it comes down to size. I just think Horth is going to be too big and too strong. Horth being massive for the weigh-class and Hardy being small for the weight-class. This is still mid level WMMA, size matters a lot here. If Horth can get hold of Hardy and push her against the cage, I can see her having success. I also think that her power will be valued higher than the output of Hardy in the eyes of the judges.
Close fight, but I think Horth takes it.

I'd have to look into Horth more. I do vaguely remember the Cowan fight, and it seemed pretty close. I don't think much of Cowan either.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

I know this is a bit of a degen play, where there is just too little information to make a good read, but I got to side with Julia Avila here. I was tempted to play her big, but in the end I settled for a 1.5 unit play only @-155.

I get that Julia has been away being pregnant (+ knee injury) for two years now, so we are not sure what we are getting with her. She could come back and look like crap and in that case, it is what it is. The bet might be stupid.

But I like her mentality, I read an interview where she talked about getting the knee injury and then immediately decided to get pregnant to maximize her career opportunity while at the same time becoming a mother (pregnant within 1 month). This tells me that she wants this. She is also some sort of engineer so she got brains, so if she wants this she should understand what a great fking opportunity this is. If just a fraction of the Julia that showed up against Stoliarenko shows up I think she beats Tate pretty handily.

I just don’t see Tate being able to threaten Julia on the feet, she doesn’t have the power to get any type of respect and Tate honestly looks physically weak these days so I doubt that she is able to get it to the ground. Tate just looks so washed lately and I don’t think she has that fire any longer. I think she has realized that this comeback of hers is not going to get her to the top so she is just riding this out. I think Tate might retire after this one.

Could look like a stupid bet in hindsight, but I do think Julia will look pretty dominant here.

I don't really understand the reasoning here to be honest. You don't need high IQ to understand or appreciate an opportunity.
And what great opportunity? She isn't really on the verge of stardom or big money whether she wins this weekend or not.

I also think the connection between academic degrees and success in mma is very, very tenous. Jin Yu Frey has a whole bunch of masters/degrees/BA's in things like Nuclear Medicine and Radiology and virtually nothing of that translated concreetly into mma. Shane Carwin was also an engineer and he wasn't exactly a cerebral fighter.


Only thing missing was arguing she has gained fresh MomPower™ because she has a child now and will be able to fight a RNC longer because of the power of love. Sorry, that probably sounds way snarkier than I intended.


I agree with Tate. Her grit has historically always been the tipping point in close wmma fights. You lose that it's game over. Although I think Lauren Murphy and Ketlen would have been a tough match up for her either way.

 

[Guld]

Prop bets are out now.
Definitely hedging my Arman bet (who's juiced to -300 now) with a Dariush by stoppage bet (+400)

 

[EndlessCritic]

Miller was pulling guard because she was getting stuffed on every takedown attempt and getting completely outclassed standing. Honestly, it was a completely shutdown from Hardy that either showed she is drastically improved or Miller is a ton worse than people expect. Honestly, I think it's a combo of both because it appeared those odds should have literally been flipped after watching that fight.

well horth was even odds when i made that post, and she's now -200, so looks like the market agrees with me here.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I don't really understand the reasoning here to be honest. You don't need high IQ to understand or appreciate an opportunity.
And what great opportunity? She isn't really on the verge of stardom or big money whether she wins this weekend or not.

I also think the connection between academic degrees and success in mma is very, very tenous. Jin Yu Frey has a whole bunch of masters/degrees/BA's in things like Nuclear Medicine and Radiology and virtually nothing of that translated concreetly into mma. Shane Carwin was also an engineer and he wasn't exactly a cerebral fighter.


Only thing missing was arguing she has gained fresh MomPower™ because she has a child now and will be able to fight a RNC longer because of the power of love. Sorry, that probably sounds way snarkier than I intended.


I agree with Tate. Her grit has historically always been the tipping point in close wmma fights. You lose that it's game over. Although I think Lauren Murphy and Ketlen would have been a tough match up for her either way.

Don't want to get in to an argument over this, since my arguments in the first place are very thin, I acknowledge that... my point was only that she seems to be a smart and driven person. Making sure that she is getting pregnant 1 month after her knee injury, being in the gym training on the day that she went in to labour. She seems like a person that will maximise this probably last opportunity. These are the non-tangibles that I want read about if I'm gonna back someone who has not fought in 2 years.
If you don't understand or see the reasoning, that's fine. It's not hard facts I'm presenting.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Anyone know why the Hardy line is taking off?
She was a favourite at -118 yesterday and now she is a dog as high as +160. Any news or rumours that I have missed?

 

[Oblivian]

well horth was even odds when i made that post, and she's now -200, so looks like the market agrees with me here.

That's the same market that bet the shit out of Juliana Miller vs. her...

 

[Stat_Collector]

Anyone know why the Hardy line is taking off?
She was a favourite at -118 yesterday and now she is a dog as high as +160. Any news or rumours that I have missed?

Maybe just the size difference. Horth is 3 inches bigger and Horth only struggled in her last fight cause the girl she fought was 5’8

size matter more in wmma since those girls are lacking in technique.

Miller is just a bad striker. Hardy has improved on her feet but its a leap to think she can suddenly out strike another striker with bigger size and weight advantage .

 

[sonhow]

Interesting that theres such a difference in Soriano's ml and ko line. I would have thought those would have been almost same. If Soriano is to win I would think it's combination of his power and Dustin's lack of defense and chin.
If Soriano isn't finding that chin... well...it wouldnt be the first time he becomes useless in those later minutes.

 

[DC23]

Anyone know why the Hardy line is taking off?
She was a favourite at -118 yesterday and now she is a dog as high as +160. Any news or rumours that I have missed?

They watched her fights.

 

[Guld]

Just saw the weigh ins. I think I'm starting to see why Arman has ballooned to such a heavy fav: (Maybe Dariush will fill in once hydrated, but he looks like he's lost a lot of muscle mass compared to his Gamrot fight)

EDIT: This is what he looked like with his arms down (better)

 

[Guld]

Vid here:

 

[Thesnake101]

Locked in Gastelum at +104 yesterday, think that'll be the only action I have for this card aside from 1 hail mary parlay.

Already felt confident in him given the style matchup and seeing him come in shape only makes me more confident. Could see him KOing Brady late.

 

[Guld]

Locked in Gastelum at +104 yesterday, think that'll be the only action I have for this card aside from 1 hail mary parlay.

Already felt confident in him given the style matchup and seeing him come in shape only makes me more confident. Could see him KOing Brady late.

Good luck! I'm waiting to livebet that one myself.
I could easily see KG piecing him up and getting the stoppage.
I could also envision an easy takedown + sub by Brady haha.

 

[sonhow]

Gotta take Kelvin now. He might find way to fuck up but seeing as he made wight in his natural weight class means he is taking things serious, also liked the pose on scale!

 

[Thesnake101]

Good luck! I'm waiting to livebet that one myself.
I could easily see KG piecing him up and getting the stoppage.
I could also envision an easy takedown + sub by Brady haha.

If Brady hadn't slowed down heavily in his last two I might see that, but the only two subs he's gotten in the UFC came in the 2nd and 3rd. If he's winning it's gonna be a decision I think.

 

[Guld]

LOL, ok, you talked me into it. I'll drop a bet on KG haha.

 

[Don Sharpe]

Rob Font (20-7) Vs Deiveson Figueiredo (21-3)

Former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo steps up in weight to face the 8th ranked bantamweight, Rob Font.

Font's recent bout against Cory Sandhagen could easily be deemed the worst fight of the year.

However, this upcoming clash is guaranteed to be a spectacle.

Figueiredo's last four fights were against Brandon Moreno in a rare quadrilogy.

He holds a record of 1-2-1 in those matchups, with the most recent loss resulting from a doctor stoppage.

Font's performance in his last four fights stands at 1-3, with his sole win being a thrilling first-round knockout against Adrian Yanez.

Notably, Font possesses superior boxing skills, size, and reach, while Figueiredo holds the edge in speed and wrestling prowess.

Following Font's recent loss to Sandhagen, a clear game plan to defeat him has emerged, one that I believe Figueiredo can execute.

Expect Figueiredo to pursue early takedowns en route to securing a unanimous decision victory.

Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo ML (+108)