UFC Austin: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan: Austin, Texas: December 2, 2023

[Stat_Collector]

I rewatched his fight with Gomes and I thought Melq pretty clearly won the second and third round.

Garcia has poor punch resistance (hes been dropped 5 times in 5 UFC fights) and will be at a striking and grappling deficit in this fight. Melq is the more dynamic striker and far superior grappler.

Melq may not have the punching power of Garcia but he is defensively sound and will eventually, more likely than not, find the chin of Garcia and put him down and out. If Melq doesn't like what he is feeling on the feet he can always fall back on his grappling.

Melq's current betting line is a gift he should be more in the range of -400.

even if he went 2-1 or draw with gomes, it shows he can be beaten by average competition or win a close fight. I didn't have it for neither in one way, i thought it was competitive. Steve has one ko loss in 18 fights. He tends to recover well after a kd.

-250 or whatever the odds are now is not good for me. Steve did well stuffing Chase who is a pure grappler and Steve's got slightly better hands.

Melq is the rightful favorite, but i don't see a clean performance. I see him dropping at least one round. There is always a slight advantage when a guy has been in the ufc a lot longer. It's usually the newcomers regional guys who drop the ball when they are the favorite.

 

[rev0lver]

even if he went 2-1 or draw with gomes, it shows he can be beaten by average competition or win a close fight. I didn't have it for neither in one way, i thought it was competitive. Steve has one ko loss in 18 fights. He tends to recover well after a kd.

-250 or whatever the odds are now is not good for me. Steve did well stuffing Chase who is a pure grappler and Steve's got slightly better hands.

Melq is the rightful favorite, but i don't see a clean performance. I see him dropping at least one round. There is always a slight advantage when a guy has been in the ufc a lot longer. It's usually the newcomers regional guys who drop the ball when they are the favorite.

You're acting like Gomes is some bad fighter though. He's not a world beater, but he's a pretty solid fighter who recently got slightly edged by two very good fighters, last time bringing a top LW prospect to a split. I've seen plenty of good fighters lose to much worse competition, and I'd argue that a close fight vs him is a better look than Garcia getting KO'd by Maheshate.

Garcia is just not very good overall. He's usually disadvantaged and relies on his power. But he's up against a guy who probably has a better overall game, who's entering his prime and has never been knocked out in an already experienced career. Feels like an easy pick.

 

[Guld]

dariush +235 is insane.

feel like hardy is getting way too much respect.

"Hardy"? I'm assuming that's a typo for Arman? haha

 

[sonhow]

Seems like people are absolutely pouring money on short notice Jalin Turner on a two fight losing streak.
I mean yeah he is pretty good but who has he beaten for this kind of confidence vs Green -who btw is looking like the best version of Bobby Green?

 

[lefontes]

Love Klose, Turner, Gastelum, Ávila and Font for this event

 

[rev0lver]

Seems like people are absolutely pouring money on short notice Jalin Turner on a two fight losing streak.
I mean yeah he is pretty good but who has he beaten for this kind of confidence vs Green -who btw is looking like the best version of Bobby Green?

I mean, Turner was on a very solid 5-fight winstreak, and then lost two close splits against top 10 guys. Green's recent success is beating a shot Tony Ferguson and getting a quick KO (albeit an impressive one).

I'm not as high on Turner as some others might be, but I get it. Might go small on Green anyway though.

 

[Stat_Collector]

You're acting like Gomes is some bad fighter though. He's not a world beater, but he's a pretty solid fighter who recently got slightly edged by two very good fighters, last time bringing a top LW prospect to a split. I've seen plenty of good fighters lose to much worse competition, and I'd argue that a close fight vs him is a better look than Garcia getting KO'd by Maheshate.

Garcia is just not very good overall. He's usually disadvantaged and relies on his power. But he's up against a guy who probably has a better overall game, who's entering his prime and has never been knocked out in an already experienced career. Feels like an easy pick.

they're all solid fighters is what i mean. Steve beat Chepe, is he not solid? and it was a finish , not a controversial loss.

The point is not rather Melq wins, but if its really worth a -250 play. Its two vibrant strikers. Garcia still has a good right straight. Its these little details that can make or break your night of profits.

 

[rev0lver]

they're all solid fighters is what i mean. Steve beat Chepe, is he not solid? and it was a finish , not a controversial loss.

The point is not rather Melq wins, but if its really worth a -250 play. Its two vibrant strikers. Garcia still has a good right straight. Its these little details that can make or break your night of profits.

I get what you're saying, but I agree with the other poster that -250 is probably attractive odds for Melq. I'm seeing it as a "puncher's chance" fight against a 26 fight vet who's never been knocked out. Usually we find those kinds of things with much worse odds, but I think Garcia is being overrrated and Melq underrated by this.

 

[Guld]

Seems like people are absolutely pouring money on short notice Jalin Turner on a two fight losing streak.
I mean yeah he is pretty good but who has he beaten for this kind of confidence vs Green -who btw is looking like the best version of Bobby Green?

Yeah, it's a bit nuts. Sure Turner can definitely win this fight, and maybe he even makes it look easy, but IMO there is also a very good chance Green puts on a showcase and lights up Turner with a speed difference.
I feel the same with Arman and Dariush, the odds are nowhere near the actual chances on that one either.

This doesn't even have a typical "big name" swing where a really popular fighter is getting juiced. Neither Arman or Turner are huge with casuals, so this cash swing is coming from other betters (or Vegas is trying to tempt us into something haha)

The other thing to consider, is that there is a chance this line movement is due to insider knowledge. Perhaps Green and/or Dariush are injured and those in the know are going heavy on their opponents? I'd like to say "that shouldn't be happening" but we've seen it happen plenty of times before.

EDIT: The other possibility of course, is that the favs are just getting juiced because everyone is pretty confident that they are going to get the job done and we should all be betting on them to safely bring back the win haha

 

[EndlessCritic]

"Hardy"? I'm assuming that's a typo for Arman? haha

no veronica hardy aka veronica macedo.

she looked awful prior to her hiatus, and was off for 4 years. her return fight she was a massive underdog to miller. she won the fight but it was mostly because miller kept pulling guard chasing subs. there's literally no evidence that hardy is an improved fighter.

she's fighting an undefeated decent athlete. no way hardy should be even.

 

[Jinx_AA]

lets face it Fig and Beneil are the only viable dogs that aren’t bums.

unless you wanna try Meisha tate who is old and Jared Gooden.

maybe Joe selecki. all the style matchups just aren’t great. No major edge. I can see Tate matching well vs Avila.

Fig has good bjj blk, but good enough to beat a larger Robb font? idk. Fig is a smaller guy than Cory.

I don’t see a good spot on this card.

Gastelum is underdog - and should be the favorite imo …..

 

[Macaque]

they're all solid fighters is what i mean. Steve beat Chepe, is he not solid? and it was a finish , not a controversial loss.

The point is not rather Melq wins, but if its really worth a -250 play. Its two vibrant strikers. Garcia still has a good right straight. Its these little details that can make or break your night of profits.

Both are southpaws, which should take away, somewhat, the left straight of Garcia. A concern is how Costa’s kicking game looks like fighting a fellow southpaw. I imagine Costa will bring a low kick-heavy gameplan, which poses issues for a boxer like Garcia.

While this won’t be as easy as the Lingo fight, mostly because of the stance, Costa should get reactive takedowns if he wants to when Garcia shifts swinging.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I get what you're saying, but I agree with the other poster that -250 is probably attractive odds for Melq. I'm seeing it as a "puncher's chance" fight against a 26 fight vet who's never been knocked out. Usually we find those kinds of things with much worse odds, but I think Garcia is being overrrated and Melq underrated by this.

Im sorry but steve has fought much better fighters throughout his career.

Melp first fights were low tier debuts or neg record fighters. and then he lost every half decent fighter in those first years.
He's like 4-5 give or take vs decent or solid competition.

Steve's lost to a Bellator guy and a bunch of guys who ended up in the ufc. and then he has a lot more solid recent wins. This is just record capping. Going into tape, he has that boxing advantage, its gonna come down to who can beat each other to the punch or kick. We'll see but i think i'm leaning towards dog or pass .

 

[Stat_Collector]

Both are southpaws, which should take away, somewhat, the left straight of Garcia. A concern is how Costa’s kicking game looks like fighting a fellow southpaw. I imagine Costa will bring a low kick-heavy gameplan, which poses issues for a boxer like Garcia.

While this won’t be as easy as the Lingo fight, mostly because of the stance, Costa should get reactive takedowns if he wants to when Garcia shifts swinging.

I always mean to just say straight, but i have a habit of saying straight right or right cross. I think the straight is still in effect. I don't see why a southpaw stance cancels it.

Gastelum is underdog - and should be the favorite imo …..

The only reason i faded Kelvin is his fight with Hermanson where he got subbed. I also see Sean just being bright eyed and more hungry to climb ranks.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I know this is a bit of a degen play, where there is just too little information to make a good read, but I got to side with Julia Avila here. I was tempted to play her big, but in the end I settled for a 1.5 unit play only @-155.

I get that Julia has been away being pregnant (+ knee injury) for two years now, so we are not sure what we are getting with her. She could come back and look like crap and in that case, it is what it is. The bet might be stupid.

But I like her mentality, I read an interview where she talked about getting the knee injury and then immediately decided to get pregnant to maximize her career opportunity while at the same time becoming a mother (pregnant within 1 month). This tells me that she wants this. She is also some sort of engineer so she got brains, so if she wants this she should understand what a great fking opportunity this is. If just a fraction of the Julia that showed up against Stoliarenko shows up I think she beats Tate pretty handily.

I just don’t see Tate being able to threaten Julia on the feet, she doesn’t have the power to get any type of respect and Tate honestly looks physically weak these days so I doubt that she is able to get it to the ground. Tate just looks so washed lately and I don’t think she has that fire any longer. I think she has realized that this comeback of hers is not going to get her to the top so she is just riding this out. I think Tate might retire after this one.

Could look like a stupid bet in hindsight, but I do think Julia will look pretty dominant here.

 

[EndlessCritic]

I know this is a bit of a degen play, where there is just too little information to make a good read, but I got to side with Julia Avila here. I was tempted to play her big, but in the end I settled for a 1.5 unit play only @-155.

I get that Julia has been away being pregnant (+ knee injury) for two years now, so we are not sure what we are getting with her. She could come back and look like crap and in that case, it is what it is. The bet might be stupid.

But I like her mentality, I read an interview where she talked about getting the knee injury and then immediately decided to get pregnant to maximize her career opportunity while at the same time becoming a mother (pregnant within 1 month). This tells me that she wants this. She is also some sort of engineer so she got brains, so if she wants this she should understand what a great fking opportunity this is. If just a fraction of the Julia that showed up against Stoliarenko shows up I think she beats Tate pretty handily.

I just don’t see Tate being able to threaten Julia on the feet, she doesn’t have the power to get any type of respect and Tate honestly looks physically weak these days so I doubt that she is able to get it to the ground. Tate just looks so washed lately and I don’t think she has that fire any longer. I think she has realized that this comeback of hers is not going to get her to the top so she is just riding this out. I think Tate might retire after this one.

Could look like a stupid bet in hindsight, but I do think Julia will look pretty dominant here.

every bet involving two wmma veterans is a degen play my friend.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

every bet involving two wmma veterans is a degen play my friend.

True, but now they are also inactive

 

[sonhow]

Gastelum is such a headcase you never know what you get with him. But IF he makes weight then imo its enough sign of disciplinity to me that Id probably make a play on him.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Always hard to tell with these photos, but it looks like he is in good shape.

 

[Macaque]

I always mean to just say straight, but i have a habit of saying straight right or right cross. I think the straight is still in effect. I don't see why a southpaw stance cancels it.


The only reason i faded Kelvin is his fight with Hermanson where he got subbed. I also see Sean just being bright eyed and more hungry to climb ranks.

Not cancels. Just makes it harder to connect. Same stance matchup, so your shoulder is somewhat blocking the cross.