UFC Austin: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan: Austin, Texas: December 2, 2023

[Anewt]

 

[Stat_Collector]

Pass the whole card.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Pass the whole card.

Mostly agree. Not too many spots I like. Don't have anywhere close to the amount of plays I'd normally have

 

[Oblivian]

I don't really dislike this card for betting like many others. I think Stoltzfus has a real path to victory here. I think Figgy's pressure may be too much causing Font to make a mistake. I also like Gooden against Turman. I think Green's line is off as well. He keeps getting underestimated. Brady/KG is a tough one to call though.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Mostly agree. Not too many spots I like. Don't have anywhere close to the amount of plays I'd normally have

Too many fighters here that are battling circumstances.

the favorites :

Short notice
weak chin
inconsistencies+ juiced odds
wmma (i'm done with those.)
unproven regional fresh.
Style matchup not in their favor or they have questionable gas tank.


All the dogs

Short notice (bad for both parties)
old
unproven or losing streaks
wmma
Inconsistent with mild dog odds.
Style matchup might be in their favorite but they are inconsistent.

I'd like to see more fights where we get two technical guys, and one guy is being miss priced because of recency bias or I also like when an inconsistent fighter is the favorite. And lastly, when we get a few fresh regional guys who no one knows how great they are, and the books have them at nice + odds. This card has none of these traits.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't really dislike this card for betting like many others. I think Stoltzfus has a real path to victory here. I think Figgy's pressure may be too much causing Font to make a mistake. I also like Gooden against Turman. I think Green's line is off as well. He keeps getting underestimated. Brady/KG is a tough one to call though.

Stoltz has lost almost all his fights, he also was getting boxed up by Viera, a bjj guy.

Figgy is moving up in weight and I'm not sure he has the tools to ground Font here or even beat him on the feet, i think it could be close but you are getting a coin flip chance for coin flip odds. Id play figgy at 200+ and beyond.

Gooden hits hard and has the tools to ko Turman but it's not like Turman can't strike. He did better against Brown on the feet and even busted him open with cuts.

Green is smaller here and short notice fight might throw him off. On the one hand this is the same style matchup as Hooker but is he prepared for Turner's submission game? Cause Turner has a solid ninja choke.

I feel the same way about Kelvin with all his past fights. He either losses razor thin or wins but that is like after he suffers a losing streak.

 

[TeamVamos]

Gooden went toe to toe with Carlston Harris in the first round and caught harris with few bombs that Turman wouldn't be able to handle. Harris is quicker than Turman and moved out of bunch of shots I can see landing on Turman. Harris has better takedowns than Turman. Turman has to grapple out the gate and often

 

[Psychojoe86]

Dariush and fig are good dogs. Arman doesn’t do as well when he is against good grapplers and font’s been brutally exposed for terrible TDD against sandhagen.

 

[mkess101]

Stoltz has lost almost all his fights, he also was getting boxed up by Viera, a bjj guy.

Figgy is moving up in weight and I'm not sure he has the tools to ground Font here or even beat him on the feet, i think it could be close but you are getting a coin flip chance for coin flip odds. Id play figgy at 200+ and beyond.

Gooden hits hard and has the tools to ko Turman but it's not like Turman can't strike. He did better against Brown on the feet and even busted him open with cuts.

Green is smaller here and short notice fight might throw him off. On the one hand this is the same style matchup as Hooker but is he prepared for Turner's submission game? Cause Turner has a solid ninja choke.

I feel the same way about Kelvin with all his past fights. He either losses razor thin or wins but that is like after he suffers a losing streak.

I agree it's an unknown, but man Fig may well look a lot better at 135. Dude had a brutal time making 125, I think it's more likely he looks better at 135 than worse. Font is no joke but Corey and Aldo showed he can be grounded and controlled.

I think Fig at + odds has some value. Wouldn't go nuts but probably more finishing upside for him. Font better boxing, volume, cardio. Fig more finishing upside, grappling.

 

[mkess101]

Dariush and fig are good dogs. Arman doesn’t do as well when he is against good grapplers and font’s been brutally exposed for terrible TDD against sandhagen.

The only fights you could be talking about with Armen are Islam (that's Islam LOL and Armen's first UFC fight) and Gamrut. Armen dominated Gamrut early then gassed. And Armen actually held his own fine with Islam who's obviously in his own league.
I have always liked Beneil but unless Armen gasses, I don't see any edge Beneil has.

 

[LordHellraiser]

Am I the only one that thinks Guida is winning tonight? I think he controls him enough to get the decision and his chin is gonna hold up just fine against Silva. Solid value here imo

 

[mkess101]

Am I the only one that thinks Guida is winning tonight? I think he controls him enough to get the decision and his chin is gonna hold up just fine against Silva. Solid value here imo

Clay tends to put his neck in danger a lot and Silva has a damn good guillotine. That might be my primary concern as a Guida bettor. Clay is live, but I don't have a good read on this one.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I agree it's an unknown, but man Fig may well look a lot better at 135. Dude had a brutal time making 125, I think it's more likely he looks better at 135 than worse. Font is no joke but Corey and Aldo showed he can be grounded and controlled.

I think Fig at + odds has some value. Wouldn't go nuts but probably more finishing upside for him. Font better boxing, volume, cardio. Fig more finishing upside, grappling.

yeah he is my number 1 pick who isn't a bum. I just feel iffy about Figgy.

 

[LordHellraiser]

Clay tends to put his neck in danger a lot and Silva has a damn good guillotine. That might be my primary concern as a Guida bettor. Clay is live, but I don't have a good read on this one.

That's very possible, he could get caught. I just don't think Silva can keep a 15 minute pace like Clay and wilts in 2nd and third. But we will see, he's a dog for a reason, but I just feel this is a wide line.

 

[sonhow]

I'm actually starting to feel better and better about Gastelum.
Pretty much have 300 bucks on his ml. I've had this opinion for years that if he put it all together he is champ material. Brady is coming off year long layoff and brutal tko loss to Belal. Gas has momentum from winning his last fight. Also he is damn hard to just grapple. Ask Kennedy or Jacare about that. Brady's best shot is to replicate what Weidman did but Chris is much bigger and even nastier on top. Also Brady's best win is against Chiesa but even then he couldnt put the stamp on it. I just hope Felder isn't commentating as his ass kissing and rooting of Brady might boost his way to win lol.

 

[sonhow]

Anybody doing live thread?

Hardy looks much better, no livebet though wtf?