Pacheco is bigger and stronger than Nunes (which makes sense as those fights were at 145) and imo has better TDD (partly because of sheer size and physicality) so was able to keep it standing as soon as Kayla tired even a little. But Nunes is way better when actually on the mat imo. She has the bjj to threaten, sweep, use it to stand up potentially.
I don't think Kayla has the luxury of feeling it out and "seeing how it goes" standing. She will get pieced up, and quickly. So yeah I totally agree she needs early TD's. I think the clear hedge to Nunes ML would be Kayla rds 1-2. The longer it goes, the worse it is for Kayla imo. Weird to say given Nunes layoff but Kayla's style takes a lot of energy and her gas tank can't hold up vs someone as good as Amanda given Kayla's physique and weight cut. Main concern would be Kayla potentially knowing she's gonna retire after this fight and blood doping to Lance Armstrong levels because she doesn't care if she pops after. She has a ton of $ after winning $2m in PFL, and she's not young.