UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett

[mkess101]

Whenever the momentum would temporarily shift in Dober's favor he would eventually get hit with something more damaging. His defense wasn't tight enough to maintain pressure at the necessary range. Contrast that with the first round of Silva's DWCS fight, which he lost, where his opponent pressured him in the same way but with much tighter defense.

Silva needs space to setup his offense and if you take it away from him, and your defense is tight enough, you can beat him. I agree the guy can do it all and its why I favor him but the path to victory for Allen is there if executed correctly.

One issue **might** the layoff for Allen. Fighters always say that the biggest issue with a long layoff is that it takes a bit to get the timing down of a real fight, that you can't replicate the speed and intensity fully even with hard sparring. Against some guys, that may not be a huge deal. Against a guy like Silva who's so dynamic that one instance of having your timing be off can mean the end of the fight...you better be PERFECT if you're pressuring him. Can Allen apply that pressure and essentially be perfect in that danger zone?

 

[sonhow]

Allen is very good as was Lopez. I guess the line reflects on perception of Silva being "special". Im rooting for him cause hes exiting as heck but perhaps not confident enough to play the current line.
But I do think he finds that chin and sleeps the Brit

 

[Guld]

I was initially feeling Gaethje, but I'm starting to think that Paddy's striking has come far enough that he keeps it competitive standing and I feel like his grappling/sub game is leagues better. Plus the age advantage and Justin potentially getting staph leads me to think Paddy takes it.

Also, I feel like O'Malley at -200 is pretty good value. He likely puts on a vintage striking performance and makes it look easy.

 

[Danis_champ]

You all gonna regret for not playing Yadong Song. I think odds should be flipped. Malley is done.

 

[Guld]

You all gonna regret for not playing Yadong Song. I think odds should be flipped. Malley is done.

If it was against another strong pressure grappler (Merab, or even Umar) then I'd agree, but I feel like this will be a mostly stand up striking affair where Sean can dictate the pace and range.
Who knows? Maybe Song's forward pressure and overall durability (compared to O'Malley especially) will be the difference maker? But I feel like Sean SHOULD be able to take this one.
(I'll be cheering for Song though haha)

 

[mkess101]

If it was against another strong pressure grappler (Merab, or even Umar) then I'd agree, but I feel like this will be a mostly stand up striking affair where Sean can dictate the pace and range.
Who knows? Maybe Song's forward pressure and overall durability (compared to O'Malley especially) will be the difference maker? But I feel like Sean SHOULD be able to take this one.
(I'll be cheering for Song though haha)

Song isn't Merab or Umar (obviously) but he does mix in grappling more lately. Took down Corey twice, Yan, Gutierrez twice. And he's a capable striker on top of that. This is a tough fight to cap imo, in large part because it's hard to know where O'Malley is mentally. He **seems** like the guy who liked the stuff that came along with being champ way more than fighting and striving to be the best. Talented striker, but there's a chance the second loss to Merab (when O'Malley allegedly REALLY put in the time grinding to improve) sort of broke him in terms of chasing greatness. He's not beating Umar either, so O'Malley might be at the stage where showboating and being entertaining is more important than committing himself to winning.

Maybe not...but it's a possibility.

 

[EndlessCritic]

god bless anyone paying juice on ateba. guy has proven nothing yet to be this big of a favorite.

 

[Danis_champ]

god bless anyone paying juice on ateba. guy has proven nothing yet to be this big of a favorite.

no one is doing it, stop yelling at the clouds, unc

 

[Thesnake101]

Taking a stab at FGTD on Fugitt vs Miller at +180. Ty's only gotten two finishes as a pro and Fugitt is a step-up in competition even if he's pretty old now.

 

[The Judo Champ]

Song isn't Merab or Umar (obviously) but he does mix in grappling more lately. Took down Corey twice, Yan, Gutierrez twice. And he's a capable striker on top of that. This is a tough fight to cap imo, in large part because it's hard to know where O'Malley is mentally. He **seems** like the guy who liked the stuff that came along with being champ way more than fighting and striving to be the best. Talented striker, but there's a chance the second loss to Merab (when O'Malley allegedly REALLY put in the time grinding to improve) sort of broke him in terms of chasing greatness. He's not beating Umar either, so O'Malley might be at the stage where showboating and being entertaining is more important than committing himself to winning.

Maybe not...but it's a possibility.

The judges seem to punish fighters who mix in wrestling lately. Garrett Armfield was winning in the standup, mixed in takedowns and had good control against Sidey recently and he somehow lost a decision. With someone who has as much aura as O'malley even if the standup is close and Song is mixing in tds the judges will likely perceive it as him panic wrestling. Unless Song scores a finish or is extremely dominant the judges are unlikely to favor him

 

[mkess101]

The judges seem to punish fighters who mix in wrestling lately. Garrett Armfield was winning in the standup, mixed in takedowns and had good control against Sidey recently and he somehow lost a decision. With someone who has as much aura as O'malley even if the standup is close and Song is mixing in tds the judges will likely perceive it as him panic wrestling. Unless Song scores a finish or is extremely dominant the judges are unlikely to favor him

That's a factor too, absolutely. Judging is still unpredictable though. Something to consider yes, but I can't make it a focal point of of handicapping or I'll drive myself insane. And talk myself out of correct plays.
Does the UFC still consider O'Malley a superstar worth pushing? They know he's pretty unlikely to win the belt again. He can still be a draw to a degree, he definitely still has some name value (Paramount obviously wanted him on this initial card). But IDK if anyone still believes he has an "aura".

Song is a good, well rounded guy who should give O'Malley all he can handle. Does he beat Sean? That I don't know.

 

[Bakayoko]

god bless anyone paying juice on ateba. guy has proven nothing yet to be this big of a favorite.

Ateba under is free.This is a setup for a highlight reel

 

[jnes]

That's a factor too, absolutely. Judging is still unpredictable though. Something to consider yes, but I can't make it a focal point of of handicapping or I'll drive myself insane. And talk myself out of correct plays.
Does the UFC still consider O'Malley a superstar worth pushing? They know he's pretty unlikely to win the belt again. He can still be a draw to a degree, he definitely still has some name value (Paramount obviously wanted him on this initial card). But IDK if anyone still believes he has an "aura".

Song is a good, well rounded guy who should give O'Malley all he can handle. Does he beat Sean? That I don't know.

Yadong is one of those elite gatekeepers for the top 5 of a division. If you beat him you're belt contender quality. This is definitely the best top 5 matchup for O'Malley and I think he gets it done by a competitive but clear 30-27/29-28.

I think if it goes the distance too the judges will definitely be more on Sean's side. While clearly not the draw the UFC wanted him to be he's still a much bigger draw than Song.

 

[mkess101]

Yadong is one of those elite gatekeepers for the top 5 of a division. If you beat him you're belt contender quality. This is definitely the best top 5 matchup for O'Malley and I think he gets it done by a competitive but clear 30-27/29-28.

I think if it goes the distance too the judges will definitely be more on Sean's side. While clearly not the draw the UFC wanted him to be he's still a much bigger draw than Song.

Yeah IDK how or if I'll play this one. I probably favor O'Malley but only slightly. Not much value I see here.

 

[Danis_champ]

Yadong is one of those elite gatekeepers for the top 5 of a division. If you beat him you're belt contender quality. This is definitely the best top 5 matchup for O'Malley and I think he gets it done by a competitive but clear 30-27/29-28.

I think if it goes the distance too the judges will definitely be more on Sean's side. While clearly not the draw the UFC wanted him to be he's still a much bigger draw than Song.

Sean never sold many PPVs lets be real here. Yeah he helps to sell more than Aljo and Yan but still. Malley is not a star people think he is.

Song would be huge for Chinese market because Weili is on her way out. Song is currently only good male fighter from China. Song is only 28 and fought elite competition when he was in his mid 20's. You guys are stupid for calling him a gatekeeper. If anyone here is a gatekeeper it's Sean O' Malley. Song is only getting better and soon will challenge for the belt and then your stupid opinion will change. Leg/ calf kicks will be there and I see Sean limping out of the Octagon. Wouldn't be surprised if Song flatlines Malley but I predict dominant decision.

 

[Tebowned]

I'm not saying it's likely but Alexander Hernandez by sub at +1100 is worth looking at.

MJ has been subbed 9 times, most of those in the UFC, and is usually a turtle on his back.

Cons: Hernandez has no sub wins in the UFC and MJ has looked good lately albeit against strikers.

 

[mkess101]

I'm not saying it's likely but Alexander Hernandez by sub at +1100 is worth looking at.

MJ has been subbed 9 times, most of those in the UFC, and is usually a turtle on his back.

Cons: Hernandez has no sub wins in the UFC and MJ has looked good lately albeit against strikers.

Hernandez also has 2 KO wins in a row. There's a better chance now that he's got massive confidence in his hands and striking than before those KO wins. Maybe makes it less likely that he tries to grapple (even if he should).

I think there's some value on MJ here for that reason. He can still strike with most guys in the division and he may well just beat Hernandez to the punch over and over if it's a standup fight.

 

[The Judo Champ]

Hernandez also has 2 KO wins in a row. There's a better chance now that he's got massive confidence in his hands and striking than before those KO wins. Maybe makes it less likely that he tries to grapple (even if he should).

I think there's some value on MJ here for that reason. He can still strike with most guys in the division and he may well just beat Hernandez to the punch over and over if it's a standup fight.

Ya difficult pick. Hernandez has found momentum again but he doesn't like being punched. MJ is old and probably the most inconsistent fighter of all time but he's still gritty. I see Hernandez coming in confident looking for another ko finish and eating a few surprising shots from MJ then losing a cautious decision

 

[jnes]

Sean never sold many PPVs lets be real here. Yeah he helps to sell more than Aljo and Yan but still. Malley is not a star people think he is.

Song would be huge for Chinese market because Weili is on her way out. Song is currently only good male fighter from China. Song is only 28 and fought elite competition when he was in his mid 20's. You guys are stupid for calling him a gatekeeper. If anyone here is a gatekeeper it's Sean O' Malley. Song is only getting better and soon will challenge for the belt and then your stupid opinion will change. Leg/ calf kicks will be there and I see Sean limping out of the Octagon. Wouldn't be surprised if Song flatlines Malley but I predict dominant decision.

Show your slip then, this should be an easy max bet for you.