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UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
- Thread starter PuertoRican
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As of Saturday, June 21, I currently have:
Kai Kara-France is interesting. He's the rightful underdog, but I think he can cause problems for Pantoja if he can avoid giving up his back.
I like Tracy Cortez by decision.
McKinney/Borshchev U1.5 rounds or doesn't start R3.
- Josh Van +100 $300 for $300
- Jack Hermansson +155 $200 for $310
- Hyder Amil +135 $200 for $270
- Beneil Dariush +130 $500 for $650
Kai Kara-France is interesting. He's the rightful underdog, but I think he can cause problems for Pantoja if he can avoid giving up his back.
I like Tracy Cortez by decision.
McKinney/Borshchev U1.5 rounds or doesn't start R3.
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Same opinion on Ilia & Felipe, maybe I'll do a parlay...
Tempted to play Beneil, but the layoff of 1 and half year is a concern.
Otherwise he got good wrestling and scrambles to play with Moicano, and I don't think the brazilian has the power to KO him.
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I added another $200 to Dariush +130.
While responded to your comment, I realized that I was typing how Dariush is better in every area of MMA when compared to Moicano: kicking, BJJ, wrestling defense, striking defense, and cardio (this is a big one). Their boxing is equal (Moicano used to have good boxing early in the UFC).
This could be one of those fights where they start R1 by having a competitive distance striking battle, and Moicano tries to get a late TD to steal the round. Or, they can have a competitive R1 and then Moicano tries to get a TD in the first half of R2, then starts to slow down a little after he can't get a TD and then goes on to look tired in R3 and loses it.
If both guys show up at their best, I think Beneil Dariush wins a decision 29-28, 29-28, 30-27.
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Van doesn't have enough experience or grappling knowledge to handle the chaos that Royval creates and his finishing instinct. -110 Royval
Hermansson keeps a constant pace, Gregory relies on bursts. + 160 Hermansson lock of the night.
Hines charges in takedowns like a truck tirelessly, Diniz won't be able to find his range. + 180 Hines
Hermansson keeps a constant pace, Gregory relies on bursts. + 160 Hermansson lock of the night.
Hines charges in takedowns like a truck tirelessly, Diniz won't be able to find his range. + 180 Hines
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Beneil is a no brainer.
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Disagree on Van. His counter grappling looks on point. He's sharp and ultra high volume. Royval could find a finish, he's obviously a legit top guy but Van is the kind of fighter made to win decisions. And that doesn't mean he's a point fighter. He throws with some heat. He just doesn't tire and he's nonstop throwing.
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Took a little break betting, since coming back hit some good plays in Usman at +225 and Fiziev +125, hopefully can keep the streak going.
Royval and Hermansson stick out as good plays initially. Might sprinkle Kai KO if it's a juicy number.
Royval and Hermansson stick out as good plays initially. Might sprinkle Kai KO if it's a juicy number.
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The difference is in making the right decisions, Royval's finishing instinct and solutions what he finds are unconventional. Van doesn’t have enough experience to stop that. In the chaos he creates, finish is always in the air. Van is a slow starter, and I see far more scenarios where this goes in Royval’s favor. For example, Van could wake up late in the fight after already taking a lot of accumulated damage. Another possibility is that Royval catches him in a scramble with a submission or club and sub.
1 Accumulated Damage
2 Frequency
3 Clap n Sub or Any Submission over Position
Van will try to destroy his rhythm with counters and either turn the fight around or secure a late ko/tko.
1 Counterpunches.
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Outside the Johnson fight, Van has looked amazing and made every right decision. Royval is an obvious step up, so there's a lot of intrigue. I happen to think Van is for real, but even if he is i agree it's no guarantee he beats Royval. But I do slightly lean Van.
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I see Dumas as a favorite I fade him, simple as.
Like Dariush, interested in Rodrigues' KO line since that's how Jack tends to go out if a power puncher gets to him — age and layoff also being a factor in Gregory's favor here.
Wanted to play Delgado since he looks legit but can't justify him as the favorite here, maybe live bet if Amil has early success.
Jacobe rd 1 KO and the under for Slava/Terrance also should be solid.
Like Dariush, interested in Rodrigues' KO line since that's how Jack tends to go out if a power puncher gets to him — age and layoff also being a factor in Gregory's favor here.
Wanted to play Delgado since he looks legit but can't justify him as the favorite here, maybe live bet if Amil has early success.
Jacobe rd 1 KO and the under for Slava/Terrance also should be solid.
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I'm going to echo a lot of this.
-I like Van, especially if you can get him at dog or evens. Royval is no joke, but Van is looking really good.
-Hermansson at +150 is fantastic. I honestly think he should be the fav.
-Dariush at those odds is a gift. The only way I see him losing it is if he's really deteriorated in his time away.
-I also like Topuria ITD, and I might also take a sprinkle on Charles by Stoppage as well. That ML for Topuria is not worth the risk, especially against Charles.
-I think Kai might be able to get it done, but that one seems like a livebet IMO.
-I'm also going to grab some of that Talbott bet at +140
Current bets...
-Van ML 3u -110
-Hermansson 2u +150
-Dariush 2u +120
-Talbott 2u +140
Since most of those are dogs I'll likely add more when/if they get even better.
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Van champ by end of next year so as principle he pretty much must bet for me against anyone but Royval might be his toughest test- over Pantoja and Moreno. So wont go ham on that.
Why is Hyder dog after beating Gomis? Delgado hasnt beaten anyone. He like some super credentialed wrestler or something?
Also got to take Hermanson. Looked like Rod hit his ceiling wall in his last fight.
Why is Hyder dog after beating Gomis? Delgado hasnt beaten anyone. He like some super credentialed wrestler or something?
Also got to take Hermanson. Looked like Rod hit his ceiling wall in his last fight.
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Looks like we have same thoughts for this except I dont give KKF much of chance.
And I might play Talbot if the money comes on Lima
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Topuria ML is too wide. It's one of those weird situations though where like PR said--if he wins it's gonna be another spectacular KO and he will look like a -750 favorite. As it stands, I think Topuria should be favored but there are absolutely scenarios where Oliveira wins. So I took some Charles at +325.
KKF is dangerous but imo Pantoja is the most overlooked champ in the UFC for how great he's been. And he doesn't seem to be slowing down. After the Erceg fight there were (rightfully) some questions. But last time out he showed he's still the absolutely elite grappler that he's always been. I also heard an interview with him earlier this week on MMA today where he was very respectful and analytical about what KKF does well. That tells me he's not getting complacent or overconfident being a champ with multiple defenses. I'm playing him in a parlay and paying the juice. If KKF is able to keep it standing I'll likely regret the play but I don't see that happening.
I already talked a little about it, but I like Josh Van. Nothing against Royval, I think he's improved a ton and toned down his recklessness to just the right spot to where he's dangerous but efficient. But Van has something that we've seen time and time again make guys elite: crazy pace and cardio. Not that Royval will gas or tire, but Van is able to put out massive volume minute after minute like few guys can. Max Holloway made a HOF career breaking guys with it. Merab is on another level but does it with grappling (which is even crazier, but he's Merab). But Van seems to have it. And I'm gonna bet on it being the difference.
I'm with PR in that I lean Dariush as a dog. It's likely his grappling forces Moicano to stand, and I give a slight edge to Beneil there.
Seems like the forum pick this week is gonna be Joker? (Take note, @guesswhoseback haha). I'm on board. Robocop looks like he's 33 going on 53. Gassed hard vs Jared last time out. Jack has become a good outside striker and is a good enough grappler to deal with that if Robocop goes that route. (Which I kinda doubt given how much energy it takes).
Talbott/Lima is interesting. Talbott's grappling was exposed by Raoni, will Lima try to go that route? Pass for me, too many unknowns. Cortez should handle Vivian. Have Tracy parlayed with Pantoja a T Wrecks. I think it's exceedingly likely McKinney finishes Slava Claus early on the mat. If not, my parlay probably dies as Terrence will fade badly 7 minutes into the fight. I just see it as really unlikely that he doesn’t do what Hooper did to Borschev.
Diniz should find a KO but gotta look a bit more at Hines. Amil probably has some value as a dog. His activity level is awesome, betting guys with the ability to go crazy hard 3 rounds (especially as dogs) is long term a winning play (see my Van/Royval analysis). Ami's round 3 vs Gomis was a thing of beauty. 52 of 86 sig strikes landed and threw in a takedown to boot. Can't coach that.
Those are all my initial thoughts.
KKF is dangerous but imo Pantoja is the most overlooked champ in the UFC for how great he's been. And he doesn't seem to be slowing down. After the Erceg fight there were (rightfully) some questions. But last time out he showed he's still the absolutely elite grappler that he's always been. I also heard an interview with him earlier this week on MMA today where he was very respectful and analytical about what KKF does well. That tells me he's not getting complacent or overconfident being a champ with multiple defenses. I'm playing him in a parlay and paying the juice. If KKF is able to keep it standing I'll likely regret the play but I don't see that happening.
I already talked a little about it, but I like Josh Van. Nothing against Royval, I think he's improved a ton and toned down his recklessness to just the right spot to where he's dangerous but efficient. But Van has something that we've seen time and time again make guys elite: crazy pace and cardio. Not that Royval will gas or tire, but Van is able to put out massive volume minute after minute like few guys can. Max Holloway made a HOF career breaking guys with it. Merab is on another level but does it with grappling (which is even crazier, but he's Merab). But Van seems to have it. And I'm gonna bet on it being the difference.
I'm with PR in that I lean Dariush as a dog. It's likely his grappling forces Moicano to stand, and I give a slight edge to Beneil there.
Seems like the forum pick this week is gonna be Joker? (Take note, @guesswhoseback haha). I'm on board. Robocop looks like he's 33 going on 53. Gassed hard vs Jared last time out. Jack has become a good outside striker and is a good enough grappler to deal with that if Robocop goes that route. (Which I kinda doubt given how much energy it takes).
Talbott/Lima is interesting. Talbott's grappling was exposed by Raoni, will Lima try to go that route? Pass for me, too many unknowns. Cortez should handle Vivian. Have Tracy parlayed with Pantoja a T Wrecks. I think it's exceedingly likely McKinney finishes Slava Claus early on the mat. If not, my parlay probably dies as Terrence will fade badly 7 minutes into the fight. I just see it as really unlikely that he doesn’t do what Hooper did to Borschev.
Diniz should find a KO but gotta look a bit more at Hines. Amil probably has some value as a dog. His activity level is awesome, betting guys with the ability to go crazy hard 3 rounds (especially as dogs) is long term a winning play (see my Van/Royval analysis). Ami's round 3 vs Gomis was a thing of beauty. 52 of 86 sig strikes landed and threw in a takedown to boot. Can't coach that.
Those are all my initial thoughts.
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Agree with all except Van vs Royval. I think Royval has the best cardio in the division and while he throws a lot of bullshit and can't bust a grape his pace is insane (I'm a certified Royval hater but I'm trying to keep emotions out of it lol). He went 5 hard rounds at elevation against Moreno and then wore down Taira too, he alo gave Pantoja hell but kept getting taken down. Royval struggles with grapplers the most and while Van is awesome and the future of the dvision this is a huge step up from middle of the road guys like Silva and Durden.
Van has great cardio too, I don't think pace is going to be a factor in this fight honestly. I'm on the Royval side just for the massive experience edge at the elite level and how he's seemingly come into his own. I think the Van line is pushed a bit by hype, everyone has him as the future of the division (rightfully so it desperately needs talent).
If Van does get it done I will be very happy as I despise Royval's style.
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Fair, and I'm not a Royval hater at all haha. To me the difference is that while Royval does have great cardio too, he wastes some of it on bullshit that's not needed. Like I said, he's reigned it in some so he's absolutely become a complete fighter. And he can keep up. But Van throws such crazy volume AND keeps it tight and precise. That combo reminds me of Max's best performances. Just boxing the shit out of dudes and touching them with punches nonstop.
Van opened as a much bigger favorite and I didn't get that. But now...I'm comfortable playing him.
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Rewatched Lima's fight with Magard , Naimov, Johns and i wasn't impressed with his wrestling. Low ctrl time, easily swept.
If this fight plays out on the feet i'll give Payton the advantage. Raoni only out landed ss by ground strikes, so he's yet to be bested by any striker. And Lima also went 50/50 with Naimov on the feet.
seems like a pickem fight with Talbott being the side.
If this fight plays out on the feet i'll give Payton the advantage. Raoni only out landed ss by ground strikes, so he's yet to be bested by any striker. And Lima also went 50/50 with Naimov on the feet.
seems like a pickem fight with Talbott being the side.
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Shouldn't some aspects of record capping be applied though?
Royval's wins on Moreno, KKF, and Taira should place him as a wider favorite.
Van losing to Charles Johnson, and then gets a winning streak with lower ranked opponents now places him at pickem odds. Something seems very odd about that.
