UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes

[Stat_Collector]

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC 314 took place Saturday, April 12, 2025 with 13 fights at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

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https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3611

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3654

 

[Jinx_AA]

LOTS of live dogs! …bets to come shortly…

 

[Guld]

I like Jean Silva, and think he actually earns a -350 in this matchup. I think Bryce will struggle hard with the speed, footwork/distance management, and boxing of Silva.

Volk at -160 is worth it IMO. About my only concern is his chin. It might be one of those fights where he's winning up until he isn't. Might hedge with a Lopes by stoppage on that one.

I like Chandler at dog odds. He is getting older, and often fights to his opponent's strengths, but I just feel like he blitzes Paddy and makes it look easy.

 

[Kazda1]

LOTS of live dogs! …bets to come shortly…

Wanting to take a stab on Yan myself. A little worried about her ability to find herself controlled once the fight hits the mat however.

 

[Guld]

Yeah, even though I don't know if I favor any of the dogs other than Chandler, there are sure to be some that pull off the win.
I'll be ready for the livebets for Ige, Reyes, Yan, and Pitbull in particular.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Parlay: Raposo, Oleksiejczuk, SIlva.

 

[StewDogg11]

Chase Hooper at -850 is wild. Miller’s way better at jiu jitsu than Clay Guida.

 

[Stat_Collector]

i like Lopes. A hard nose fighter who has decent power and keeps his hands up. Dropped T-City in round 3 so he has enough to carry power past round 2, i think at this stage in Volk's career, Lopes is a bad matchup.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Yeah, even though I don't know if I favor any of the dogs other than Chandler, there are sure to be some that pull off the win.
I'll be ready for the livebets for Ige, Reyes, Yan, and Pitbull in particular.

Woodson should be a 3-1 favorite - expect that line to widen … Woodson has way better hands , good takedown defense - and is going to absolutely tower Ige ….. seems like a nightmare matchup to me

 

[StewDogg11]

Woodson should be a 3-1 favorite - expect that line to widen … Woodson has way better hands , good takedown defense - and is going to absolutely tower Ige ….. seems like a nightmare matchup to me

The disparity in competition is gigantic. Lol at his hands being “way” better. He’s fought mainly bums and doesn’t have much power.

 

[mkess101]

i like Lopes. A hard nose fighter who has decent power and keeps his hands up. Dropped T-City in round 3 so he has enough to carry power past round 2, i think at this stage in Volk's career, Lopes is a bad matchup.

Agree. Dog odds on the guy on the upward trajectory vs the legend who's past his prime. (Doesn't mean Volk is washed, but he's clearly at the age and mileage where it's not fair to expect him to be the dominant guy he was).

I don't have massive confidence because Volk has the 5 round experience and is one of the best ever. But Lopes is a guy who will fight through fatigue even if it goes late. And imo his aggression should carry him early.

 

[mkess101]

Wanting to take a stab on Yan myself. A little worried about her ability to find herself controlled once the fight hits the mat however.

People constantly underrate Virna. She's exceedingly one dimensional but it takes a special counter grappler to stop her from doing what she does. I don't think Yan is that. Really tough for me to see Virna not being able to get 2 rounds through control.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Agree. Dog odds on the guy on the upward trajectory vs the legend who's past his prime. (Doesn't mean Volk is washed, but he's clearly at the age and mileage where it's not fair to expect him to be the dominant guy he was).

I don't have massive confidence because Volk has the 5 round experience and is one of the best ever. But Lopes is a guy who will fight through fatigue even if it goes late. And imo his aggression should carry him early.

i rewatched volk vs islam 1 and i noticed he took a knee in the 1st round in a close pocket exchange, i think that's where Lopes catches Volk, in the pocket or in the clinch. Volk might wrestle to wear him down, not impossible for him to do him like he did to Yair, but Lopes is a boxer and a calf kicker, i think Volks open guard on the feet leaves him exposed to get finished, i'm leaning around r3 like the Ilia fight.

 

[mkess101]

i rewatched volk vs islam 1 and i noticed he took a knee in the 1st round in a close pocket exchange, i think that's where Lopes catches Volk, in the pocket or in the clinch. Volk might wrestle to wear him down, not impossible for him to do him like he did to Yair, but Lopes is a boxer and a calf kicker, i think Volks open guard on the feet leaves him exposed to get finished, i'm leaning around r3 like the Ilia fight.

Lopes is dangerous off his back too, way more than Yair. Evloev was playing defense a lot of the time he had top position on Lopes. I don't think that means Volk will be scared to shoot a TD but it's another thing to consider.

 

[Guld]

Woodson should be a 3-1 favorite - expect that line to widen … Woodson has way better hands , good takedown defense - and is going to absolutely tower Ige ….. seems like a nightmare matchup to me

While I do agree with the sentiment, Woodson notoriously takes his foot off the gas and gives up rounds he shouldn't.
Ige has faced the better comp, and by contrast keeps pushing through the entire fight.
I agree that Woodson should be the fav, but there is definitely a path to victory for Ige so that's why I was recommending the potential livebet and/or hedge.

 

[Bakayoko]

i like Lopes. A hard nose fighter who has decent power and keeps his hands up. Dropped T-City in round 3 so he has enough to carry power past round 2, i think at this stage in Volk's career, Lopes is a bad matchup.

He gassed in r3 against Ige at catchweight.Slowed down vs Movsar too.If Volk clinches a bit he's gonna slow him down for sure if it goes past 3

 

[mkess101]

He gassed in r3 against Ige at catchweight.Slowed down vs Movsar too.If Volk clinches a bit he's gonna slow him down for sure if it goes past 3

He didn't vs Ortega though. And he was using a ridiculous amount energy attacking off his back vs Movsar who obviously pushes a relentless grappling pace. I think for sure if it goes past 3 that Volk likely looks fresher but it theoretically could be 3-0 Lopes and Volk needing a finish. And maybe Lopes paces himself s bit better knowing it's a 5 rounder.

I think most of the finishing upside is with Lopes too.

 

[PuertoRican]

Before I left Vegas yesterday, I placed the following bets:

• $50 Darren Elkins +330
• $450 Virna Jandiroba -150

I need more time to research and think about who else I want to bet on, and if I want to increase my position on either of the two fighters I'm already on. Money will likely come in on Yan Xiaonan, so getting a better line on Virna will make it easier for me to want to bet more on her.

I'm mostly excited to see what sports books open their SS props at since I have a good read on several of these matchups, in terms of SS and TDs.

 

[Stat_Collector]

He gassed in r3 against Ige at catchweight.Slowed down vs Movsar too.If Volk clinches a bit he's gonna slow him down for sure if it goes past 3

He's a deceptive fighter with his cardio, similar to Nassourdine Imavov, he gassed with Phil Hawes and then a few adjustments, and he's koing Jared, going 5 rounds with Sean Strickland. I think Lopes is in that same boat. He gets better with every fight, and his gas tank looked better vs Ortega. Plus Volk also slows down in some fights. Ortega was piecing him up in round 5.

I can point out so many times i counted where Volk got hurt, wobbled, dropped, in almost every fight he's in, and I think Lopes has more lethal hands than those guys with exception to Tuporia, he should follow through and a get a ko under 3 . Or maybe lose a narrow decision at worst or win a split dec.

 

[Stat_Collector]

He didn't vs Ortega though. And he was using a ridiculous amount energy attacking off his back vs Movsar who obviously pushes a relentless grappling pace. I think for sure if it goes past 3 that Volk likely looks fresher but it theoretically could be 3-0 Lopes and Volk needing a finish. And maybe Lopes paces himself s bit better knowing it's a 5 rounder.

I think most of the finishing upside is with Lopes too.

this is also Lopes 3rd fight going to round 5, so he's not a virgin for main event fights.