UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev

[mkess101]

I wouldn't be surprised if he slows down after 1.5 rounds not having a full camp/having to cut quickly and his style takes tons of energy. Maybe Fiziev+U1.5 could be a juicy play since he always starts fast and might catch Gaethje early, I feel the longer this goes though it significantly favours Justin.

Maybe. I think Fisiev hasn't slowed as much late in fights as what people think though. He has decision wins and late stoppages in the UFC so he's not an "early KO or bust" guy at all.

 

[Trupsi]

I think Turner bounces back here.

What's your read on that ?
Both tall and rangy for the division. Turner looked gassed vs Hooker, but it's a good step-up for Bahamondes.

Played Anlalaev at 1.91 (not the best odds), expecting him to wrestle and be smart (lol).

Not interested in Gaethje vs Fiziev, too many unknowns...

Ruffy most likely KO Green, but odds will be disgusting.

Need to tape Lemos vs Lucindo.

 

[sonhow]

Oh it was absolutely the calf kicks that won Jan the early part of that fight. But when they make a guy limp like he did Ank...that's damage. That wins rounds.

Anyway my point was more that Jan wasn't any more or less washed vs Pereira than he was vs Ank.

I lean Pereira because Ank is pretty good at everything but not great at anything. Maybe Ank does grind his way to a win, but 25 minutes is a long time to avoid getting hit with something big vs a guy like Alex. Especially now that he actually has built up some MMA experience.

I havent made my mind about it but it could also play in Anks favor. That hes good at everything but not great. Perreira is excellent catching people from mistakes and bad defense. If Ank doesnt give him room does Perreira have what it takes for Ank to fight his fight and force knockout? Does Perreira have it in him to fight 5 hard rounds and maybe walk out with decision. Can he adjust? Or will he go all out late and score the win if Ank gets even little bit lazy. Remember that Thiago Santos floored him.

This is an interesting fight to say the least.

 

[jnes]

Maybe. I think Fisiev hasn't slowed as much late in fights as what people think though. He has decision wins and late stoppages in the UFC so he's not an "early KO or bust" guy at all.

Ya he's definitely not a KO or bust guy but he's slowed multiple times before and his potency diminishes including in the last Gaethje fight when he had a full camp. His style takes tons of energy and he always starts fast. Full camp I'd favour him but when you've gassed in the past from full camp fights it can be a little worrying. He won the first 1 min 30 seconds of the third in the first fight then Gaethje started piecing him up.

 

[Guld]

Talk to me more about this one. I'm having a hard time cap the fight, but leaning the other way honestly.

I won't convince you too much haha.
For me it's mostly the step up in competition.
Blaydes has faced all tiers of comp for many years, and for some reason is still underestimated when it comes to both his striking and his grappling. Don't get me wrong, he is a few years older (34 vs 31) and has been put out by heavy hitters, so I would totally get why you'd take the undefeated guy at such good odds.
Heck, maybe I need to do some more tape watching. Maybe it'll convince me to switch my bet haha.

 

[Guld]

Oh it was absolutely the calf kicks that won Jan the early part of that fight. But when they make a guy limp like he did Ank...that's damage. That wins rounds.

Anyway my point was more that Jan wasn't any more or less washed vs Pereira than he was vs Ank.

I lean Pereira because Ank is pretty good at everything but not great at anything. Maybe Ank does grind his way to a win, but 25 minutes is a long time to avoid getting hit with something big vs a guy like Alex. Especially now that he actually has built up some MMA experience.

I think Pereira cripples him early with leg kicks, and that will cause Ank to slow down, overreact to oncoming kicks, and prevent him from attempting shooting. It'll also likely get him to lower his defenses and get caught with a left hook/head kick.
I think Ank has 1.5 rds to implement a solid grappling+cardio draining gameplan, and if he doesn't get any real success with that he eats some serious damage and eventually gets put out.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[Stat_Collector]

Hard fight. even odds(prolly). two consistent gas tanks.

Hard pass.

 

[PuertoRican]

Hard fight. even odds(prolly). two consistent gas tanks.

Hard pass.

And it's at 145 since it's a short notice fight. I'm not sure who that favors, if it matters at all.

Castaneda has to worry about cutting weight again, even though it's at a higher weight this time. We don't know how much weight he cut last week or how much weight he gained before he was told about this short notice fight.

Gutierrez 5'8 with a 67 inch reach.
Castaneda 5'6 with a 71 inch reach.

 

[Stat_Collector]

And it's at 145 since it's a short notice fight. I'm not sure who that favors, if it matters at all.

Castaneda has to worry about cutting weight again, even though it's at a higher weight this time. We don't know how much weight he cut last week or how much weight he gained before he was told about this short notice fight.

Gutierrez 5'8 with a 67 inch reach.
Castaneda 5'6 with a 71 inch reach.

Maybe another case of 'wait for the weigh in photos.'

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Oh it was absolutely the calf kicks that won Jan the early part of that fight. But when they make a guy limp like he did Ank...that's damage. That wins rounds.

Anyway my point was more that Jan wasn't any more or less washed vs Pereira than he was vs Ank.

I lean Pereira because Ank is pretty good at everything but not great at anything. Maybe Ank does grind his way to a win, but 25 minutes is a long time to avoid getting hit with something big vs a guy like Alex. Especially now that he actually has built up some MMA experience.

What I'm saying is I don't really put much stock in someone winning rounds almost exclusively off of calf kicks, especially when it's used as an example of why they're not washed.

It's a cheap trick, like using an underarm serve in tennis and getting an ace; and then someone using that as an example to say, "yup, he's still got it, he can still serve an ace at 41 years of age".

 

[Hellowhosthat]

What I'm saying is I don't really put much stock in someone winning rounds almost exclusively off of calf kicks, especially when it's used as an example of why they're not washed.

It's a cheap trick, like using an underarm serve in tennis and getting an ace; and then someone using that as an example to say, "yup, he's still got it, he can still serve an ace at 41 years of age".

What the fuck are you talking about lmao it's absolutely nothing like that.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

What the fuck are you talking about lmao it's absolutely nothing like that.

They only work so well because they are new to the game.

Particularly 2.5 years ago when the fight happened - it was revolutionary.

Also LHW's and HW's are lazy, and don't prepare for fights as well as a lot of smaller guys, where the divisions are more well-rounded and you can't afford to neglect certain areas of your game as much.

It's not that hard to check a leg kick man.

If someone is losing a round exclusively from a leg kick, it says more about them, than it does the person throwing them

 

[Hellowhosthat]

They only work so well because they are new to the game.

Particularly 2.5 years ago when the fight happened - it was revolutionary.

Also LHW's and HW's are lazy, and don't prepare for fights as well as a lot of smaller guys, where the divisions are more well-rounded and you can't afford to neglect certain areas of your game as much.

It's not that hard to check a leg kick man.

If someone is losing a round exclusively from a leg kick, it says more about them, than it does the person throwing them

Calf kicks have been common for a lot longer than that dude.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Calf kicks have been common for a lot longer than that dude.

They have not been "common" for more than 4-5 years.

Is all that people do on here is argue about petty nonsense and try to win arguments

 

[Hellowhosthat]

They have not been "common" for more than 4-5 years.

Is all that people do on here is argue about petty nonsense and try to win arguments

It wasn't revolutionary two and a half years ago. That is the only point I'm making. They were common place in the sport by the time of that fight.

 

[mkess101]

What I'm saying is I don't really put much stock in someone winning rounds almost exclusively off of calf kicks, especially when it's used as an example of why they're not washed.

It's a cheap trick, like using an underarm serve in tennis and getting an ace; and then someone using that as an example to say, "yup, he's still got it, he can still serve an ace at 41 years of age".

That's a weird take imo. Calf kicks are allowed, and can clearly do damage. One of the greatest fighters of all time (Aldo) used them to immobilize guys and did it right in the middle of his prime. That was a "cheap trick"? Using a legal tactic enough times to make an opponent have to limp around the cage is a "cheap trick" in a fight? To where a "washed" fighter can land a bunch and hurt an opponent...but still be too washed to do anything else?

If that's your view, okay? It's bizarre as hell to see it that way imo but everyone looks at things differently I guess.

 

[mkess101]

They have not been "common" for more than 4-5 years.

Is all that people do on here is argue about petty nonsense and try to win arguments

Dude, c'mon. The crux of your argument is "Jan was washed and his success vs Ank was smoke and mirrors because calf kicks were a new novelty tactic 2-3 years ago when they fought".

I'm not telling you that you can't think that way, but to take that stance and not believe anyone would say "Wait, what?" is naive. Max/Volk 1 was in 2019. Go watch that fight again. Two of the best of all time, in their prime...and the fight was largely decided by Volk's ability to land leg kicks. It's been a big part of the sport for a long time.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

That's a weird take imo. Calf kicks are allowed, and can clearly do damage. One of the greatest fighters of all time (Aldo) used them to immobilize guys and did it right in the middle of his prime. That was a "cheap trick"? Using a legal tactic enough times to make an opponent have to limp around the cage is a "cheap trick" in a fight? To where a "washed" fighter can land a bunch and hurt an opponent...but still be too washed to do anything else?

If that's your view, okay? It's bizarre as hell to see it that way imo but everyone looks at things differently I guess.

It's a cheap trick because any any mfer can do it, provided the opponent doesn't have the ability to check them, and the outcome can be fight altering.

They also shouldn't really have any baring on the fight, if it's used against a competent fighter, but against many of the aforementioned fighters it will.

It's not like a flying knee to the head that can be fight altering, but require a lot of skill and athleticism to pull off.

Dude, c'mon. The crux of your argument is "Jan was washed and his success vs Ank was smoke and mirrors because calf kicks were a new novelty tactic 2-3 years ago when they fought".

I'm not telling you that you can't think that way, but to take that stance and not believe anyone would say "Wait, what?" is naive. Max/Volk 1 was in 2019. Go watch that fight again. Two of the best of all time, in their prime...and the fight was largely decided by Volk's ability to land leg kicks. It's been a big part of the sport for a long time.

Yeah, I still consider it to have been revolutionary in 2022, they slowly crept into the sport more and more around 2020.

I am saying Blachowicz is washed because the only thing he had success with against Ankalaev is the calf kick.

Whether it's because it is a newer technique, that some fighters are still taking time to adjust properly to, or Ankalaev is a just shitty/ lazy LHW, I don't know, but what really matters is that it's a technique that requires very little skill, compared to many of the other approaches in MMA, but can conversely have fight altering impact.

Blachowicz deftly utilised the biggest low input/ high output technique in the sport, but outside of that, he did very little, and that is because he is in fact washed.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Any way, this not the place to be talking about Blachowicz.

He will get stomped by Ulberg, but that is in a few weeks.

This thread is to talk about UFC 313, and how we can best make money on the odds on offer.

I have identified fading the fraud Pereira as one of the best places to start from