UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano

[Thesnake101]

Taking CDF, I don't normally bet on lightweights his age but I like his volume on the feet. Dawson will get him down but I like his urgency to create opportunities to get up and I think he's good at avoiding back exposure while doing it which is what Dawson wants.

What's your thoughts on u2.5/FDGTD for that one? I think either CDF catches Grant with something or it ends up like Grant/Leo or Gillespie/CDF.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

What's your thoughts on u2.5/FDGTD for that one? I think either CDF catches Grant with something or it ends up like Grant/Leo or Gillespie/CDF.

I don't think I can see Grant finishing CDF really, I can see CDF finishing Grant

 

[mkess101]

I don't think I can see Grant finishing CDF really, I can see CDF finishing Grant

I kinda agreed...but CDF looked AWFUL on the scale. Had to be helped off. Not saying it's a death blow...but it's not a good look for a guy who's faded to high paced grapplers before (the Gillespie fight comes to mind).

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I kinda agreed...but CDF looked AWFUL on the scale. Had to be helped off. Not saying it's a death blow...but it's not a good look for a guy who's faded to high paced grapplers before (the Gillespie fight comes to mind).

Yeah I played him before that. Nevermind lol

 

[mkess101]

Yeah I played him before that. Nevermind lol

Well...we've seen guys look bad at weigh in and still perform well. So you never know!

 

[Dooze]

Gutted Arman is out.

Umar is a pretty big favourite over Merab which I kinda get after the Sandhagen fight but Umar hasn't really faced any grapplers and is now facing the best one in the division. If Umar wins get likely dominates the division for as long as he can make the weight but grappler wise it's a big step up again that Merab almost has to be played at this big an underdog. He passed the step up in quality Vs Sandhagen with flying colours but it's now an equally important test in terms of can he outgrapple elite grapplers and the first test of that is against the best wrestler in the division who doesn't slow down.

If he can put Merab on his back consistently and either avoid the scrambles or win them, then it's game over and 135 is likely locked down until Umar retires or moves up. If Merab is allowed to pursue his offensive wrestling however, it's unlikely Merab will be able to get him down consistently and keep him down so it comes to how good Umar is at either neutralising Merab and disengaging from that first shot, or consistently winning the 2nd, 3rd, 4th scramble against the cage that will ensue. So far Umar hasn't really tired or had to win those battles - will he have the same cardio and ability to win those battles in round 3, 4 and 5 that he does in round 1 and 2? If Merab wears him out with that, Umar will likely still be able to defend the 1st and 2nd takedown attempts and scramble but less of the follow ups which is where Merab typically wins.

Even money fight I'd probably be on Umar but I think the odds currently are a bit too short given it's the final big question for Umar to answer against the best in the division to ask it.

The over is probably pathetic odds so not worth it but I think Merab is playable at big dog odds.

 

[Jah_Shaka]

Islam most strikes landed 1.57 @ Bet365
Islam most significant strikes landed 1.53 @ Bet365

Yes please.

 

[impressivegoal]

Merab to land 4 takedowns -105 has piqued my interest. Even without dominating the grappling he can land 4 within 5rds

 

[Aurelian]

decided to play Ridder sub for that price. 240+ is not bad.

Submission in round 1 is 700+

I notice that kevin does turn his back a lot when he faced Brendon Allen. And he's lost to almost every grappler he's faced.

I think Souza ,Gm3, and Marvin are the only guys who failed to sub him. but Souza was old and koed early, Gm3 lacked the skill to get the hooks on Holland's back and Marvin was inactively subbing guys in the ufc, most of his subs were earlier in his career.

If at any point Ridder attacks a Darce, arm triangle, or rear naked choke, i dont think Holland escapes.

Agreed. Holland has a hole in his wrestling and he's been lucky his last few fights to not fight a wrestler. I got RDR at +115 ML a couple weeks ago.

 

[sonhow]

Im eating crow with Umar but somehow someway I was able to cash my bets with no losses in third round after Umar looked tired on stool and even got winnings by switching on Merab.

In other news Talbot got raped and boy was he raped bad. Complete bust of prospect. Reminded me of Rox vs Maycee except Talbot no excuse

 

[PuertoRican]