UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano

[BigSteve]

Bekoev is overrated. I give Zach more chance of subbing him

 

[EndlessCritic]

Not sure I can justify a single favorite on this card.

Dariush and Ferreira seem like the most obvious plays. Both are horrible style matchups for their opponents.

Would be shocked if Talbott or Jailton lost, but odds don't justify straight plays.

Of the bigger dogs I think Carpenter/Gafurov/Turcios are all stab worthy. Nakamura is going to get exposed by the first guy he can't hold down.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Bekoev is overrated. I give Zach more chance of subbing him

he attacked 2 subs against Medina and Brundage and failed both times. Subbed Arinov who has a few fights.

Bekaev only sub lost was against a veteran fighter (Rafal)who has beaten good guys in eastern european mma promotions and has a steady cardio for 3 rounds. Reese has only 1 and a half rounds of cardio, and can't stop a takedown from Medina with a full gas tank. Bekaev is not a good fighter by no stretch, but he's a solid grappler like Duraev level. Zach Reese is a regional level or bottom totem pole fighter. I wasn't even impressed with his fight with Medina who he hit clean and didn't do much damage. He overextends his strikes and leaves himself vulnerable to getting underhooked. The only way I see a sub is if Bekaev lets himself get caught by some submission in round 1, but he'd have to be worse than Medina and Brundage . i can't imagine a guy with that much experience being caught. And i dont see Reese pulling it off in round 3 with his shotty tank.

Likely scenario is Bekaev wins a boring lay n pray decision, but a submission can be the highest odds for decent chances. Just because i'm predicting Bekaev to have near 8-10 minutes of ctrl time.

 

[Monster Meat]

Locked in a parlay with Jiri and Merab fight starts round 4 +143 150/215. For those who have access to fan duel the line for starts round 4 is only -380. I know seems juicy but a good parlay piece considering it’s over -600 on other sites.

 

[BigSteve]

he attacked 2 subs against Medina and Brundage and failed both times. Subbed Arinov who has a few fights.

Bekaev only sub lost was against a veteran fighter (Rafal)who has beaten good guys in eastern european mma promotions and has a steady cardio for 3 rounds. Reese has only 1 and a half rounds of cardio, and can't stop a takedown from Medina with a full gas tank. Bekaev is not a good fighter by no stretch, but he's a solid grappler like Duraev level. Zach Reese is a regional level or bottom totem pole fighter. I wasn't even impressed with his fight with Medina who he hit clean and didn't do much damage. He overextends his strikes and leaves himself vulnerable to getting underhooked. The only way I see a sub is if Bekaev lets himself get caught by some submission in round 1, but he'd have to be worse than Medina and Brundage . i can't imagine a guy with that much experience being caught. And i dont see Reese pulling it off in round 3 with his shotty tank.

Likely scenario is Bekaev wins a boring lay n pray decision, but a submission can be the highest odds for decent chances. Just because i'm predicting Bekaev to have near 8-10 minutes of ctrl time.

A lot of people have a low opinion on Reese. I am not one of them. He can be taken down, no doubt. And he's hittable.

I know Bokaev well from constantly taping him in LFA. He gives me fraudulent vibes. The fact that he was an LFA champ masks his issues a bit.
Many of his wins are over guys he can easily hold down without resistance. Fernandes was out grappled by Cesar of all people.

And he has been hurt a whole bunch. Need to evaluate Resse finishing upside.

 

[Stat_Collector]

A lot of people have a low opinion on Reese. I am not one of them. He can be taken down, no doubt. And he's hittable.

I know Bokaev well from constantly taping him in LFA. He gives me fraudulent vibes. The fact that he was an LFA champ masks his issues a bit.
Many of his wins are over guys he can easily hold down without resistance. Fernandes was out grappled by Cesar of all people.

And he has been hurt a whole bunch. Need to evaluate Resse finishing upside.

Fernando was swept in round 1 and round 2 almeida had some top ctrl from a failed takedown, but then round 3 Fernando took him down, they had an equal amount of ctrl.

I think it needs to be noted Bekaev fought Budka and Fernando in a 5 round fight, his cardio was steady throughout the fight. He has an early amateur win to Umalatov and he started his pro career beating decent russian fighters for his early fights. where i'm getting at is there a massive wide gap of mma experience, he is battle tested like someone who has already fought in the ufc for some time. Reese majority of his fights have not gone past round 1, how much actual cage time has he gone through to be able to outsmart a russian grappler with the ability to shoot takedowns for 5 rounds straight?

The fight he got dropped by Budka it was at the 3rd round , and that was after Budka stuffed takedowns, but he's a legit college level wrestler who wrestled at notre dame division 1. Bekaev still eventually out grappled him and put him on his back through out rounds 4-5. Bekaev also has decent clean striking, not a finisher on the feet but his striking reminds me of Rodolfo Viera where it's not lethal but he puts his hands up like a boxer and uses the jab to setup his strikes. My gripe with Reese too, is that he doesn't have a good getup game, his reaction to getting taken down is to attack subs and pull guard, which isn't going to serve him well here.

I can only imagine a finish for Reese if he catches him early with a heavy punch, and an overzealous ref stops it before Bekaev gets a chance to recover. Like a Mark Goddard/Herb Dean type ref or that black bald guy who stopped Chris Curtis fight.

 

[Pappetta]

Fernando was swept in round 1 and round 2 almeida had some top ctrl from a failed takedown, but then round 3 Fernando took him down, they had an equal amount of ctrl.

I think it needs to be noted Bekaev fought Budka and Fernando in a 5 round fight, his cardio was steady throughout the fight. He has an early amateur win to Umalatov and he started his pro career beating decent russian fighters for his early fights. where i'm getting at is there a massive wide gap of mma experience, he is battle tested like someone who has already fought in the ufc for some time. Reese majority of his fights have not gone past round 1, how much actual cage time has he gone through to be able to outsmart a russian grappler with the ability to shoot takedowns for 5 rounds straight?

The fight he got dropped by Budka it was at the 3rd round , and that was after Budka stuffed takedowns, but he's a legit college level wrestler who wrestled at notre dame division 1. Bekaev still eventually out grappled him and put him on his back through out rounds 4-5. Bekaev also has decent clean striking, not a finisher on the feet but his striking reminds me of Rodolfo Viera where it's not lethal but he puts his hands up like a boxer and uses the jab to setup his strikes. My gripe with Reese too, is that he doesn't have a good getup game, his reaction to getting taken down is to attack subs and pull guard, which isn't going to serve him well here.

I can only imagine a finish for Reese if he catches him early with a heavy punch, and an overzealous ref stops it before Bekaev gets a chance to recover. Like a Mark Goddard/Herb Dean type ref or that black bald guy who stopped Chris Curtis fight.

Budka dropped him and his striking reminds you of Rodolfo Viera. This dude must be pretty good

 

[Hellowhosthat]

he attacked 2 subs against Medina and Brundage and failed both times. Subbed Arinov who has a few fights.

Bekaev only sub lost was against a veteran fighter (Rafal)who has beaten good guys in eastern european mma promotions and has a steady cardio for 3 rounds. Reese has only 1 and a half rounds of cardio, and can't stop a takedown from Medina with a full gas tank. Bekaev is not a good fighter by no stretch, but he's a solid grappler like Duraev level. Zach Reese is a regional level or bottom totem pole fighter. I wasn't even impressed with his fight with Medina who he hit clean and didn't do much damage. He overextends his strikes and leaves himself vulnerable to getting underhooked. The only way I see a sub is if Bekaev lets himself get caught by some submission in round 1, but he'd have to be worse than Medina and Brundage . i can't imagine a guy with that much experience being caught. And i dont see Reese pulling it off in round 3 with his shotty tank.

Likely scenario is Bekaev wins a boring lay n pray decision, but a submission can be the highest odds for decent chances. Just because i'm predicting Bekaev to have near 8-10 minutes of ctrl time.

Iirc Bekoev was winning the first couple of rounds against Haratyk too.

I'm also annoyed about Dumas pulling out, I liked him as a dog

 

[Stat_Collector]

Budka dropped him and his striking reminds you of Rodolfo Viera. This dude must be pretty good

Viera isn’t bad for a specialist, he out struck Stoltzfus and has a solid jab.

That simple skill level of good grappler and c grade striking beats like 85% -90% of the talent pool from regional to mid level ufc.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Iirc Bekoev was winning the first couple of rounds against Haratyk too.

I'm also annoyed about Dumas pulling out, I liked him as a dog

Dumas would have also beaten Reese, he has the relentless pace to grapple him for 3 rounds. Bekaev is even a worst possible matchup.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Dumas would have also beaten Reese, he has the relentless pace to grapple him for 3 rounds. Bekaev is even a worst possible matchup.

Yeah, we're not going to get the same odds on him though unfortunately.

I think my next step is to decide if I'm interested in Clayton Carpenter.

 

[Spath]

How good of a chance do you guys think Jiri has against Hill?

I mean it’s kind of tough to gauge where Hill is at since he hasn’t fought much and his last wins are against Jimmy Crute (1-3-1 in last 5), Johnny Walker (while offensively dangerous, you all know how he is) and old man Teixeira (obviously his biggest win and a real dog fight). Then he got KO’d in the first against Pereira, where he seemingly had nothing for him…

Jiri is more battle tested, pretty creative and offensively good fighter. He’s only lost to Pereira in the UFC and has piled on a lot of victories before coming over. He can get caught, but he’s shown he’s not as easy to hit as you’d think and when he gets hit he can take it.

I’m leaning BJP here and it seems he’s a small dog, even if it’s close to evens.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Gonna have to bet Merab. This guy shouldn't be 3.6 odds against anyone.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah, we're not going to get the same odds on him though unfortunately.

I think my next step is to decide if I'm interested in Clayton Carpenter.

I feel the same way about him as i did Bashi last week.

Too unproven, and he didn't do well against Edgar , he got put on his back in the 2nd round.

I wanna somehow convince myself he is maybe as good as Tim Elliot, but he doesn't have those scrambles or experience. I can see Clayton in moments of grappling exchanges where second guesses himself, those slight pauses are what separates him from a guy like Tagir who is going to be lots of steps ahead of him. I think Tagir subs or decisions him, leaning more to a decision.

 

[sonhow]

I feel the same way about him as i did Bashi last week.

Too unproven, and he didn't do well against Edgar , he got put on his back in the 2nd round.

I wanna somehow convince myself he is maybe as good as Tim Elliot, but he doesn't have those scrambles or experience. I can see Clayton in moments of grappling exchanges where second guesses himself, those slight pauses are what separates him from a guy like Tagir who is going to be lots of steps ahead of him. I think Tagir subs or decisions him, leaning more to a decision.

Difference is Carpenter a big dog while Bashi was a big fav

I think Tagir is good. If Carpenter beats him now at this point in his career he has champion potential. Almost need to see it before I believe it.

Actually same feelings about the Khabib people in main events. Those people just never lose aside from that one ww but he doesnt count. Need to see it before I believe it. As good as I think Arman and Merab are. And I think they are as elite as possible.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Difference is Carpenter a big dog while Bashi was a big fav

I think Tagir is good. If Carpenter beats him now at this point in his career he has champion potential. Almost need to see it before I believe it.

Actually same feelings about the Khabib people in main events. Those people just never lose aside from that one ww but he doesnt count. Need to see it before I believe it. As good as I think Arman and Merab are. And I think they are as elite as possible.

if you bet on Carpenter it’s a shot in the dark imo. His skill level is a question mark for me until proven otherwise. id rather bet on someone who has proven they can beat fighters of the same skill bracket.

i actually think the ufc is doing him a disservice by giving him a veteran like Tagir, he needs to be at least 15 fights in before he jumps the line. We’ll see.

I’m on Merab btw. I’m really not trying to spam pick all the Russians.

 

[mkess101]

Difference is Carpenter a big dog while Bashi was a big fav

I think Tagir is good. If Carpenter beats him now at this point in his career he has champion potential. Almost need to see it before I believe it.

Actually same feelings about the Khabib people in main events. Those people just never lose aside from that one ww but he doesnt count. Need to see it before I believe it. As good as I think Arman and Merab are. And I think they are as elite as possible.

Was a long time ago but Islam was KO'd by Adrian Martins. It's largely irrelevant other than that it showed that IF islam gets hit flush on the button he can be put away. Khabib seemed to have an iron chin to go with all his other skills. Armen showed vs Beneil he has power (even though obviously being a power puncher isn't his calling card).
Merab is also a different puzzle for Umar to solve than anything he's seen. Merab cares less about effective offense (at least in terms of inflicting damage) than he does about neutralizing his opponent's offense. The Yan fight is a perfect example. Merab never hurt Yan, and failed on an incredible 38 takedown attempts (he was 11 for 49 on TD's--yes, FORTY NINE). Nobody else is capable of that because it's too exhausting. Merab doesn't care about his TD's getting stuffed because it's just more minutes of him bleeding the clock and not allowing his opponent to mount any offense of their own. When you're defending TD's, you aren't attacking.

I think there's a case to be made for playing Armen and Merab at current odds, even if I'd pick Islam and Umar straight up if the lines were even.

 

[sonhow]

Was a long time ago but Islam was KO'd by Adrian Martins. It's largely irrelevant other than that it showed that IF islam gets hit flush on the button he can be put away. Khabib seemed to have an iron chin to go with all his other skills. Armen showed vs Beneil he has power (even though obviously being a power puncher isn't his calling card).
Merab is also a different puzzle for Umar to solve than anything he's seen. Merab cares less about effective offense (at least in terms of inflicting damage) than he does about neutralizing his opponent's offense. The Yan fight is a perfect example. Merab never hurt Yan, and failed on an incredible 38 takedown attempts (he was 11 for 49 on TD's--yes, FORTY NINE). Nobody else is capable of that because it's too exhausting. Merab doesn't care about his TD's getting stuffed because it's just more minutes of him bleeding the clock and not allowing his opponent to mount any offense of their own. When you're defending TD's, you aren't attacking.

I think there's a case to be made for playing Armen and Merab at current odds, even if I'd pick Islam and Umar straight up if the lines were even.

I may or may not bet these guys myself but I absolutely expect the Khabib boys to win. That Martins ko was ages ago, before the Khabib era began when Conor tapped out to the chicken choke. The same era is still going on and none off these guys have lost since. Usman beat Shabily 50-45 with basic performance as did Umar vs Cory. Actually Islam probably looked the most beatable off these guys and hes lost like 4 rounds since that Martins ko 10 years ago.

 

[sonhow]

if you bet on Carpenter it’s a shot in the dark imo. His skill level is a question mark for me until proven otherwise. id rather bet on someone who has proven they can beat fighters of the same skill bracket.

i actually think the ufc is doing him a disservice by giving him a veteran like Tagir, he needs to be at least 15 fights in before he jumps the line. We’ll see.

I’m on Merab btw. I’m really not trying to spam pick all the Russians.

I want to be on Merab because the odds but I dunno yet.

 

[mkess101]

I may or may not bet these guys myself but I absolutely expect the Khabib boys to win. That Martins ko was ages ago, before the Khabib era began when Conor tapped out to the chicken choke. The same era is still going on and none off these guys have lost since. Usman beat Shabily 50-45 with basic performance as did Umar vs Cory. Actually Islam probably looked the most beatable off these guys and hes lost like 4 rounds since that Martins ko 10 years ago.

Yeah I know it was a long time ago, but Armen isn't a typical challenger either imo. Already fought Islam so has a feel. Built like a tank and no quit in him (almost everyone else taps to that guillotine by Charles). I favor Islam, don't get me wrong. But the line is too wide.

Umar is terrific, but Merab presents a unique challenge that can't be replicated and imo that at least gives him a reasonable chance.