UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura

[DalchaLungiambula]

Shut the fuck up dude.

Nah I can respond to this guy if I want.

He keeps replying to everything I post nitpicking stuff, when he is totally unproven betting wise as far as I'm concerned.

Go look at every time someone was +200 and beat their opponent from pillar to post for the entirety of the fight and see what happens in their career afterwards.

This guy is arguing about stuff he doesn't even know anything about.

It is called outperforming the betting line, and there is historical data to support that it's indicative of notable improvements being made in a fighter

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Nah I can respond to this guy if I want.

He keeps replying to everything I post nitpicking stuff, when he is totally unproven betting wise as far as I'm concerned.

Go look at every time someone was +200 and beat their opponent from pillar to post for the entirety of the fight and see what happens in their career afterwards.

This guy is arguing about stuff he doesn't even know anything about.

It is called outperforming the betting line, and there is historical data to support that it's indicative of notable improvements being made in a fighter

The threads are to discuss the fights and help work out what bets we want to place and discuss fights with fellow hardcodes and make money. If you want a bragging thread start a separate bragging thread but all this "I'm so great stuff" is out of place in this thread.

I too have a pretty positive record, but I'm not going to brow beat people about it because I come here to run stuff past people and have holes poked in my logic to help me make better bets.

 

[mkess101]

You forgot to mention the part where I made almost all of it back with giga sharp bets on Vann, Taleb and Hernandez.

I'm up 18.5U via tracked betting on here.

You're not clowning me, I'm not even convinced that you're profitable betting on MMA

And I don't really care if you think I am or not. You seek validation here, I don't. Which is why you seemingly went to such a dark place after one big loss.

I've been profitable over the years. Not every year, but overall am well up. I don't do it for a living, and winning and losing doesn't alter my lifestyle at all. Because I'd never want to be in a place where a cold streak had me saying the shit you were saying. So I'd say that along with your focus on capping fights, maybe also try to get a bit of perspective. Or don't, but my friendly advice is it would serve you well.

 

[mkess101]

Nah I can respond to this guy if I want.

He keeps replying to everything I post nitpicking stuff, when he is totally unproven betting wise as far as I'm concerned.

Go look at every time someone was +200 and beat their opponent from pillar to post for the entirety of the fight and see what happens in their career afterwards.

This guy is arguing about stuff he doesn't even know anything about.

It is called outperforming the betting line, and there is historical data to support that it's indicative of notable improvements being made in a fighter

You type shit like this...sigh.

"Pillar to post"? The fight lasted 2 fucking minutes LMAO. Dom landed a great counter and got a KO. FFS if you wanna be taken seriously, THINK about the words you're typing.

 

[Thesnake101]

I understand all of you Kron backers now, Bryce at -800 is ridiculous. Those are the types of odds you'd expect for Kron vs Ilia/Volk/Max, not Mitchell.

 

[mkess101]

I understand all of you Kron backers now, Bryce at -800 is ridiculous. Those are the types of odds you'd expect for Kron vs Ilia/Volk/Max, not Mitchell.

Absolutely. Yeah Bryce **should** win. But dude is coming off (yes it's been a year I get it) one of the scariest KO losses in MMA history. He had a fucking seizure in the cage he got hit so hard. And no, Kron ain't that dude that's gonna throw heat but isn't there even a tiny bit of concern that Bryce can never be the same in the cage? Maybe he freezes up and has PTSD or something from that shit. Probably not...but that wasn't a normal KO loss.

 

[Spath]

I understand all of you Kron backers now, Bryce at -800 is ridiculous. Those are the types of odds you'd expect for Kron vs Ilia/Volk/Max, not Mitchell.

I fully expect Mitchell to win, but his strength is his grappling. That happens to be exactly what Kron specializes in. So.. We’ll see what happens, but if Kron plods around after Mitchell and Mitchell dances circles around him while popping him with a punch or two…

Bryce via dec could very well be what happens. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I hope they engage in grappling and we get to see some real scrambles!

 

[Oblivian]

Let's not act like Bryce hasn't been in some back and forth grappling fights either. We saw it with Katona on TUF, Diamond fight was back and forth, and Moffett almost had him. Ige fight was also pretty close.

 

[Guld]

I fully expect Mitchell to win, but his strength is his grappling. That happens to be exactly what Kron specializes in. So.. We’ll see what happens, but if Kron plods around after Mitchell and Mitchell dances circles around him while popping him with a punch or two…

Bryce via dec could very well be what happens. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I hope they engage in grappling and we get to see some real scrambles!

Mitchell by Dec or Kron by Sub seem the two most likely outcomes, and of those I think Mitchell by Dec is the most probable.
EDIT: It'll be interesting to see what the props are, and what kind of value either of those might get.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I understand all of you Kron backers now, Bryce at -800 is ridiculous. Those are the types of odds you'd expect for Kron vs Ilia/Volk/Max, not Mitchell.

I cant see Mitchell doing worst than Jourdain. If Jourdain is barely a grappler how does Kron pose a threat to Mitchell? unless mitchell is one of those white belt bjj wrestlers like Jonathan Pearce.

 

[mkess101]

I cant see Mitchell doing worst than Jourdain. If Jourdain is barely a grappler how does Kron pose a threat to Mitchell? unless mitchell is one of those white belt bjj wrestlers like Jonathan Pearce.

Mitchell is a better grappler than Jourdain so I see your point. But that scary KO of Bryce and the fact that Kron is just always gonna be dangerous (for a round at least anyway) makes me not think someone taking a shot on Kron at these crazy odds is so bad.

 

[Monster Meat]

At first thought I was thinking evolev wins by decision but I can’t get it out of my head how bad he looked against Diego Lopes at ufc Newark. I was at that fight and I thought he was going to dominate. I could really see Aljo winning a close decision.

 

[Spath]

At first thought I was thinking evolev wins by decision but I can’t get it out of my head how bad he looked against Diego Lopes at ufc Newark. I was at that fight and I thought he was going to dominate. I could really see Aljo winning a close decision.

Aljo certainly could win a decision. The way he fought Yan in the first fight totally surprised me. He was so active and spamming strikes while staying out of harms way at the same tile.. Whew!

Aljo’s prime is behind him, but he’s still a hell of a grappler and this time he’s not facing a killer striker. Very interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[Monster Meat]

Aljo certainly could win a decision. The way he fought Yan in the first fight totally surprised me. He was so active and spamming strikes while staying out of harms way at the same tile.. Whew!

Aljo’s prime is behind him, but he’s still a hell of a grappler and this time he’s not facing a killer striker. Very interesting to see how it plays out.

Yea for sure and at +200 the value is with Aljo. I’m thinking Aljo round 3-dec to boost that up to +295.

 

[Oblivian]

I cant see Mitchell doing worst than Jourdain. If Jourdain is barely a grappler how does Kron pose a threat to Mitchell? unless mitchell is one of those white belt bjj wrestlers like Jonathan Pearce.

I don't think you'll see Mitchell fighting anything like Jourdain. It was similar to how Oezdemir handled Craig in guard, but Craig has submitted far better grapplers than Oezdemir. The difference is Jourdain wasn't really looking for offense on the ground or anything that could create a scramble. I just don't see Bryce fighting that way at all. I see this fight having the potential to look far more like Bryce's other fights vs grapplers which tend to have quite a bit of scrambles.

 

[mkess101]

At first thought I was thinking evolev wins by decision but I can’t get it out of my head how bad he looked against Diego Lopes at ufc Newark. I was at that fight and I thought he was going to dominate. I could really see Aljo winning a close decision.

Value on Aljo I agree, but to be fair Lopes has turned out to be WAY better than what was expected of him heading into that fight with Evloev.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Mitchell is a better grappler than Jourdain so I see your point. But that scary KO of Bryce and the fact that Kron is just always gonna be dangerous (for a round at least anyway) makes me not think someone taking a shot on Kron at these crazy odds is so bad.

Kron unfortunately doesn’t have the boxing or power of Emmet and Tuporia to take advantage of that shattered chin, maybe i’m wrong.

I don't think you'll see Mitchell fighting anything like Jourdain. It was similar to how Oezdemir handled Craig in guard, but Craig has submitted far better grapplers than Oezdemir. The difference is Jourdain wasn't really looking for offense on the ground or anything that could create a scramble. I just don't see Bryce fighting that way at all. I see this fight having the potential to look far more like Bryce's other fights vs grapplers which tend to have quite a bit of scrambles.

Mitchell is a decent striker, i dont think he needs to scramble or use grappling offensively , look at what he did to Edson and he did land a few decent shots on Tuporia. I think Kron is a bit of a lotto play. The only prowess i’ve seen on the feet is with Cub where they both got into some sloppy exchanges close up. I generally think Mitchell is too seasoned in mma. And i’ve seen his highlights pulling off decent subs, he’d have too really fumble the ball here.

 

[Monster Meat]

Value on Aljo I agree, but to be fair Lopes has turned out to be WAY better than what was expected of him heading into that fight with Evloev.

He def has I just remember going into that fight I thought evolev would dominate and he looked pretty mediocre.

 

[sonhow]

At first thought I was thinking evolev wins by decision but I can’t get it out of my head how bad he looked against Diego Lopes at ufc Newark. I was at that fight and I thought he was going to dominate. I could really see Aljo winning a close decision.

I would say it has more to do with Lopes being better than we all thought.

One funny thought about this fight is that Aljo while possibly the most skilled figher Movsar has fought might also be the least durable man (two ko losses -not much but more than everyone else has) hes faced on his ufc run. Does this have absolutely anything to do with this fight? Probably not but something to consider if we have seen something that may seem strange post fight.

Edit. Seung Woo Choi is def less durable than Aljo lol forgot about him.

 

[Thesnake101]

I would say it has more to do with Lopes being better than we all thought.

One funny thought about this fight is that Aljo while possibly the most skilled figher Movsar has fought might also be the least durable man (two ko losses -not much but more than everyone else has) hes faced on his ufc run. Does this have absolutely anything to do with this fight? Probably not but something to consider if we have seen something that may seem strange post fight.

Edit. Seung Woo Choi is def less durable than Aljo lol forgot about him.

I'd say Lentz and Grundy are also less durable than Aljo, what skews things is that Sterling got finished by two of the most dangerous strikers at BW at the time who were elite, I don't think Sterling is actually a chinny fighter or anything. Think of it like Hunt having most of his losses be via strikes in the UFC, on paper it looks bad but everyone knows Mark wasn't frail or anything.