UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic

Aldo is the exception, not the rule. Tony's decline was maybe more severe than most but the reality is at lower weights overall, the difference in age from 35 to 38 is massive. There's generally a drop-off.
Michael isn't a speedy fighter that relies on reflex like he's Anderson Silva, he's a brawler who lunges forward, so long as he still has power and wrestling, he can derail the fight to the later rounds, he had top position on Charles at one point.

This isn't a cut dry matchup, Chandler has several upsides that will drag the fight further.
 
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Washed up Bruno Silva dropping Chris on his ass🔥
i retaped both guys and Chris has a decent speed advantage. Anders is a bit washed and slow, getting dropped by Jaime Pickett is far worst aesthetic.

Chris' ko losses were all top ranked opponents, he's not chinny by mid level standards, he's chinny by the top rankings elites.
 
Michael isn't a speedy fighter that relies on reflex like he's Anderson Silva, he's a brawler who lunges forward, so long as he still has power and wrestling, he can derail the fight to the later rounds, he had top position on Charles at one point.

This isn't a cut dry matchup, Chandler has several upsides that will drag the fight further.

He's fast twitch. He relies on explosion and timing for sure. Chandler isn't nor has ever been a technical guy that can fall back on that.
 
so every fighter 38 at lighter weighs all get koed in rnd 1? i get ring rust but there are 41 year olds like Miller who still have that dog in them. Diego Ferreira comes to mind beating rebecki at late 30s off a long layoff.

i have charles btw just dont see r1 or r2 finish

No definitely not "every" guy. Didn't mean to imply that. We are talking probability. MOST guys decline in lower weight classes in their late 30's. Could Chandler be the exception? Sure. Would I bet on it? Nope. I think it's more likely than less that Charles finishes him within 2 rounds but I'm not implying it's a lock at all.
 
No definitely not "every" guy. Didn't mean to imply that. We are talking probability. MOST guys decline in lower weight classes in their late 30's. Could Chandler be the exception? Sure. Would I bet on it? Nope. I think it's more likely than less that Charles finishes him within 2 rounds but I'm not implying it's a lock at all.
I can only go by what's available. I dont have that tape of Chandler being stuck in the mud. I have in the past overlooked performances like Jared Cannoneir vs Imavov when he fought Caio. But I don't have that tape, i have the last memory of him in a dog fight with Poirier and a dec lost to Justin Gaethj that were past rnd 2, I get charles stopped him faster than those guys, but rematches don't usually pan out worst , he has information now to adjust and extend his time in the fight.

62.5% of Michael Chandler’s losses have gone into the 3rd round or further. I'm going to go with the math here. A Charles win in 3,4,5 prop bet has more value to me.
 
I can only go by what's available. I dont have that tape of Chandler being stuck in the mud. I have in the past overlooked performances like Jared Cannoneir vs Imavov when he fought Caio. But I don't have that tape, i have the last memory of him in a dog fight with Poirier and a dec lost to Justin Gaethj that were past rnd 2, I get charles stopped him faster than those guys, but rematches don't usually pan out worst , he has information now to adjust and extend his time in the fight.

62.5% of Michael Chandler’s losses have gone into the 3rd round or further. I'm going to go with the math here. A Charles win in 3,4,5 prop bet has more value to me.

Fair enough. Good luck to ya. I'm passing because although I think I know what I'll get from Charles, it's too hard to know what to expect from Chandler.
 
Fair enough. Good luck to ya. I'm passing because although I think I know what I'll get from Charles, it's too hard to know what to expect from Chandler.
i played sub or ko prop for Charles -175 , i dont know how smart that was, but it's like an alternative to playing his moneyline, i dont see this hitting the scorecards.
 
I'll also say i think Chandler's wrestling is a non factor here. (At least as a positive for him). No way he wouldn't tap to that guillotine Charles had on Armen in rd 1 (to be fair, almost everyone outside Armen and maybe Islam would tap there). Chandler won't purposefully mess with Charles on the mat. The risk/reward isn't close to worth it. If anything I can see Charles shooting on Mike.
 
i retaped both guys and Chris has a decent speed advantage. Anders is a bit washed and slow, getting dropped by Jaime Pickett is far worst aesthetic.

Chris' ko losses were all top ranked opponents, he's not chinny by mid level standards, he's chinny by the top rankings elites.
On paper the matchup is good for Weidman but I just think his body is shot. This fight probably takes place mostly on the feet as anders has a good takedown defense (I think it’s 80 percent) it’s either a boring decision or anders catches chris and finishes him. At this point Chris just reaches his hands out to deter opponents from getting in on him and wrecking his chin.
 
On paper the matchup is good for Weidman but I just think his body is shot. This fight probably takes place mostly on the feet as anders has a good takedown defense (I think it’s 80 percent) it’s either a boring decision or anders catches chris and finishes him. At this point Chris just reaches his hands out to deter opponents from getting in on him and wrecking his chin.
the beauty of a Weidman bet is that his dec line is his replacement for his money line since it’s unlikely he wins any other way.



He’s the hometown hero too, i favor him in the bias scoring and Jim miller as well.
 
I got a couple of parlay sprinkles on some heavy favs (Bo, Jones, Ruffy), but my only real significant bet is on Martinez. (and Paul for boxing tonight)
I'll stick with my livebetting for the rest of the card.
 
the beauty of a Weidman bet is that his dec line is his replacement for his money line since it’s unlikely he wins any other way.



He’s the hometown hero too, i favor him in the bias scoring and Jim miller as well.

Submission is live if he can get him down. People seem to forget how good his jiu jitsu is.
 
Submission is live if he can get him down. People seem to forget how good his jiu jitsu is.
Less so forget and moreso that he's not flashed much offensive threat with his BJJ since the Gastelum fight, and before that his last sub came in 2011. Also didn't sub Bruno who has half-a-dozen sub losses.

If he can get Eryk down then it's Chris' fight to lose but I doubt a finish happens. Eryk's only been subbed once by a peaking Muniz with an armbar, other than that and quitting due to exhaustion against Santos, he's been historically durable.
 
Less so forget and moreso that he's not flashed much offensive threat with his BJJ since the Gastelum fight, and before that his last sub came in 2011. Also didn't sub Bruno who has half-a-dozen sub losses.

If he can get Eryk down then it's Chris' fight to lose but I doubt a finish happens. Eryk's only been subbed once by a peaking Muniz with an armbar, other than that and quitting due to exhaustion against Santos, he's been historically durable.

He never got Bruno to the ground and if he did it was briefly from what I remember.
 
He never got Bruno to the ground and if he did it was briefly from what I remember.
He took him down in the first and got 3 mins of control time. Got stuffed in the rest of his attempts.
 
Taking a chance on Miller rd 1 and his ML. Damon's a gritty physical guy but up a weight class and on the heels of not being able to keep a good pace in his last few fights I think he loses again.

The Chepe fight in particular was an extremely poor showing for him since he looked completely done after 1 round and was stuck in the mud for the rest of it.

Jim can still crack, and in fact it's what he prefers to do nowadays to set things up, and Damon doesn't have good defense. Miller sub could be live as well since I could see him forcing a bad shot out of Damon and jumping for a guilly.

Tybura's worth a shot, as long as he doesn't get chinned he should be able to outgrapple Diniz. Mulling over Brahimaj at dog odds since Gall is dumb and shit, but Ramiz is the definition of a regional fighter who is fodder for just about anyone with a pulse.
That Kevin holland fight is jim miller in a nutshell. Swear hollands chin has improved over the years because miller hit some clean ones in rd 1. He got pieced after though. Think you’re spot on.
 

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