UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic

DalchaLungiambula said:
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A stretch to say Thiago Santos won because one bad judge gave him the score. Jon out pointed him in 4/5 rounds and the fight was uneventful-low -output fight. I might give the Reyes fight as it was close.

But even if we go with that, Stipe has one big problem with Jones, and it's his chin.

Koed by Struve, kd by JDS in the first fight.
He was dropped by Overeem (when AO was off the sauce and won in a come from behind win.)
Fights two of the heaviest handed fighters in Ngannou and Hunt, but uses wrestling to avoid being chinned.
Then beats guys with average chins who where at the downhill part of their career.
Gets chinned by a 40 year old DC who was fatter than when he fought Jones.
And then beats DC in a fight where DC landed high volume on him , something he would never do to Jones at HW or LHW.
And then fights Ngannou with tdd and gets stopped in rnd 2.

Jones fights at lhw were against faster and better cardio fighters. Jones never been dropped by these heavy hitters. let alone touched much.

Stipe doesn't have the wrestling to turn this into a grappling match, so if it's strictly kickboxing, I'm going with the better chin fighter who is 5 years younger and less hittable. Stipe also got dropped by Overeems straight, Jones has a decent jab straight, and he kept up well with Gane on the feet , didn't look bewildered or scared of Gane. Jon might be a bit slower, but Jon was operating from a higher level before, he is the better defensive fighter.

I get the money line is not appealing, but this is why prop bets exist. A R2 bet or a ko2/sub2 or under 1.5 bet all have value. Stipe can be koed because he's much older and coming off a longer lay off.
 
Jones ITD/Oliveira ITD/Nickal ITD/Anders ML

Safest parlay of the cardšŸ‘
 
This parlay is +4020. Itā€™s a fun lotto ticket
Paul by tko +150
Bo by tko -150
Anders by tko +330
Oliveira by sub +130
 
Stat_Collector said:
A stretch to say Thiago Santos won because one bad judge gave him the score. Jon out pointed him in 4/5 rounds and the fight was uneventful-low -output fight. I might give the Reyes fight as it was close.

But even if we go with that, Stipe has one big problem with Jones, and it's his chin.

Koed by Struve, kd by JDS in the first fight.
He was dropped by Overeem (when AO was off the sauce and won in a come from behind win.)
Fights two of the heaviest handed fighters in Ngannou and Hunt, but uses wrestling to avoid being chinned.
Then beats guys with average chins who where at the downhill part of their career.
Gets chinned by a 40 year old DC who was fatter than when he fought Jones.
And then beats DC in a fight where DC landed high volume on him , something he would never do to Jones at HW or LHW.
And then fights Ngannou with tdd and gets stopped in rnd 2.

Jones fights at lhw were against faster and better cardio fighters. Jones never been dropped by these heavy hitters. let alone touched much.

Stipe doesn't have the wrestling to turn this into a grappling match, so if it's strictly kickboxing, I'm going with the better chin fighter who is 5 years younger and less hittable. Stipe also got dropped by Overeems straight, Jones has a decent jab straight, and he kept up well with Gane on the feet , didn't look bewildered or scared of Gane. Jon might be a bit slower, but Jon was operating from a higher level before, he is the better defensive fighter.

I get the money line is not appealing, but this is why prop bets exist. A R2 bet or a ko2/sub2 or under 1.5 bet all have value. Stipe can be koed because he's much older and coming off a longer lay off.
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Thing is Jon has never been a big puncher ALTHOUGH at hw might be different story. And he may land the headkick -thats always been a big weapon for him -Gus 1 and DC 2 fights come to mind.
 
Stat_Collector said:
r1 is always Chandlers best rounds. Even in their first fight Charles had Chandler's back for some time and could not get the sub. Chandler only taps when he's exhausted and done like in the Poirier fight. So, Charles r1 finishes aren't highly rated, Dariush is his best r1 finish and he's not a super durable fighter. I just see Chandler as a late gasser. Someone who will go big or go broke early and fade in the later rounds.

He's lost 29% in r1 and 29% R3

I'm just going for the one that has the highest odds.
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All fair points. I'd say again--the jump from 36 years old to 38 is often a MASSIVE one for a LW. Look at Ferguson at 36, then 38. Completely different guy. Maybe Chandler hasn't hit his wall yet but if he hasn't, he will soon. I have to take the 2 year layoff and age into consideration.
 
Is it true that Chandler and Stipe are showing signs of Staph?
 
Thesnake101 said:
Is it true that Chandler and Stipe are showing signs of Staph?
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Stipe is showing signs of full blown CTE, Staph is the least of his worries. He's never been a great speaker but guy makes Chuck Liddell look like Tucker Carlson for public speaking now
 
1731626340264.jpeg
1731626346302.jpeg

BKFC Joey Beltran slamming Stipe on his head and beating the brakes off him
 
mkess101 said:
All fair points. I'd say again--the jump from 36 years old to 38 is often a MASSIVE one for a LW. Look at Ferguson at 36, then 38. Completely different guy. Maybe Chandler hasn't hit his wall yet but if he hasn't, he will soon. I have to take the 2 year layoff and age into consideration.
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Aldo is 38 and still keeping up. Tony was a different story, he's always over trained and did things to destroy his body, plus the beating he took by Justin is nowhere the same with Chandler. Chadler looks in good shape.

sonhow said:
Thing is Jon has never been a big puncher ALTHOUGH at hw might be different story. And he may land the headkick -thats always been a big weapon for him -Gus 1 and DC 2 fights come to mind.
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I see him dropping Stipe in rnd 1 or 2 and finishing him with elbows, or a short elbow close up and stipe wilts and looks like a beaten old man.

Then Jon celebrates and then people start booing him , Tom potentially walks inside the cage to stir up trouble.

Anyone who thinks Stipe is going to have his Rocky moment is going to be disappointed.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Aldo is 38 and still keeping up. Tony was a different story, he's always over trained and did things to destroy his body, plus the beating he took by Justin is nowhere the same with Chandler. Chadler looks in good shape.
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Aldo and Mike are completely different fighters though, Jose siwtched his style to one that was less reliant on his athleticism and didn't tax his gas tank as much, while Chandler has always used his explosiveness to make up for all his technical shortcomings on the feet.

Ring rust is going to be a massive factor I'd wager, wouldn't even be surprised if he got ran over either. I have Charles finishing him in two.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Aldo is 38 and still keeping up. Tony was a different story, he's always over trained and did things to destroy his body, plus the beating he took by Justin is nowhere the same with Chandler. Chadler looks in good shape.


I see him dropping Stipe in rnd 1 or 2 and finishing him with elbows, or a short elbow close up and stipe wilts and looks like a beaten old man.

Then Jon celebrates and then people start booing him , Tom potentially walks inside the cage to stir up trouble.

Anyone who thinks Stipe is going to have his Rocky moment is going to be disappointed.
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Aldo is the exception, not the rule. Tony's decline was maybe more severe than most but the reality is at lower weights overall, the difference in age from 35 to 38 is massive. There's generally a drop-off.
 
I think Jon "Bones" Jones will live up to his name and hop on Mioc, choke him, then start thrusting his hips against his back so fast that Miocs cheeks turn absolutely flat. Really give him that BONE that everybody has been talking about.
 
mkess101 said:
Aldo is the exception, not the rule. Tony's decline was maybe more severe than most but the reality is at lower weights overall, the difference in age from 35 to 38 is massive. There's generally a drop-off.
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Tony was the scariest lightweight fighter in his prime. HANDS DOWN NO COMPLAINTS.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Aldo and Mike are completely different fighters though, Jose siwtched his style to one that was less reliant on his athleticism and didn't tax his gas tank as much, while Chandler has always used his explosiveness to make up for all his technical shortcomings on the feet.

Ring rust is going to be a massive factor I'd wager, wouldn't even be surprised if he got ran over either. I have Charles finishing him in two.
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so every fighter 38 at lighter weighs all get koed in rnd 1? i get ring rust but there are 41 year olds like Miller who still have that dog in them. Diego Ferreira comes to mind beating rebecki at late 30s off a long layoff.

i have charles btw just dont see r1 or r2 finish
 
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