UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic

[Guld]

Same, but if hes cocky he might go for some grappling even if its dumb thing to do considering the striking of Paul.

It's Bo's fight to lose. He has the skills to keep it standing and tee off on Craig's declining level of striking, or grapple away and avoid the full guard position.

 

[GetSomeSuga]

11/15
Paul def. Tyson via KO (punch)

11/16
Jones def. Miocic via TKO (elbows)

Oliveira def. Chandler via SUB (choke)

Silva def. Araujo via DEC (unanimous)

Nickal def. Craig via KO (punches)

Ruffy def. Lontop via TKO (punches)

McGhee def. Martinez via TKO (punches)

Anders def. Weidman via KO (punches)

Jackson def. Miller via DEC (unanimous)

Diniz def. Tybura via TKO (punches)

Gall def. Brahimaj via DEC (unanimous)

Elliot def. Hafez via DEC (unanimous)

 

[Guld]

Reportedly Stipe has a sign of staph on his chest, and Jones is walking with a limp

I wouldn't read too much into either, but there have been reports of it.

 

[lotusdogman]

Bo -1000 is fucking absurd. Bigger favorite than Ank was against Craig? And Craig got KTFO B2B when he fought Ank and hadn't beaten the likes of Ank himself, Nzechukwu, Krylov, Muniz, Jamahal for that price and Ank was still a smaller favorite than Bo.... Bo is a good prospect but his best win is Cody Brundage who's only legit win in 3 years was a meme slam KO.

Bo struggled to get Pickett down who is one of the worst MWs UFC signed and he had some issues against Brundage and Woodburn for his wrestling too. He hasn't proven his wrestling translated and his BJJ isn't that great IMO. The comp he fought on Contenders was bottom of the barrel. I don't know brah how don't you sprinkle something on Craig? We haven't seen Bo deep in a fight too. Craig doesn't have good TDD but a dangerous guard and one of the best finishers in MMA. Is Bo just gonna take him down and murk him? Outstrike him standing? Caio and Brendan are top 10 MWs. Solidified and tested at the top level..... This line is saying basically Bo is that level right now. Is he? Would you be comfortable betting Bo against Muniz if they fought now because Craig finished him 2 fights ago.

I dunno brahs give me some Craig here.

agree

 

[Oblivian]

Craig is pretty hittable, so yeah.

Here’s hoping they grapple and make it exciting!

Remember that Volkan handled Craig on the ground just fine and made it rather boring staying postured up. Craig runs out of ideas pretty quickly.

 

[sonhow]

Reportedly Stipe has a sign of staph on his chest, and Jones is walking with a limp

I wouldn't read too much into either, but there have been reports of it.
View attachment 1071156View attachment 1071157

Jones might be trolling, Stipe maybe but Merab for example looked like himself even with staph.

 

[Thesnake101]

Took Miller by KO at +420. That's been his MO for the past few years and I don't see it changing vs Jackson. I'll cry if he jumps a guillotine and hits it.

 

[nonoob]

Jones is walking with a limp

Shorty the Pimp also walks with a limp !

​

 

[GetSomeSuga]

Took Miller by KO at +420. That's been his MO for the past few years and I don't see it changing vs Jackson. I'll cry if he jumps a guillotine and hits it.

Jackson KO’d only by Topuria and Ige in ufc

Miller - 7 KO wins in 20 years (18% ko rate)

Makes sense lol

 

[Thesnake101]

Jackson KO’d only by Topuria and Ige in ufc

Miller - 7 KO wins in 20 years (18% ko rate)

Makes sense lol

He also got KO'd by Movlid and Kevin Aguilar outside of the UFC.

Keep in mind this, Ige had 2 finishes with strikes in the UFC before the Jackson fight, and has only logged one more after that. Jim's last 5 wins have been finishes, 3 by strikes and he managed to drop Green in his last one - he's also a fast starter.

 

[mkess101]

yeah the last fight with Charles was also 5 rounds, so it may not change his game plan. i dont want him to fight slow anyways, id rather he gas himself, but it's not like he only has a round and a half of cardio, he can push a pace for 2 whole rounds at least.


Rematches hardly ever go identical to the first. Sometimes the loser does worst, sometimes they do better.

I would say it's unlikely we get a repeat, Chandler has a familiarity with Charles just like Izzy did when he fought Alex the 2nd time in mma. It's a dangerous fight and Charles was getting pounded in that late first. It wasn't like Charles was whipping his ass the whole fight. Chandler was winning until he wasn't, and in a flash was koed.

Absolutely. But keep in mind Chandler is 38 now and hasn't fought in over 2 years (waiting for Conor). That age matters a lot more at LW than it would at 205 or HW.

I agree that rematches often aren't a repeat, I actually think this time that it's likely that means an earlier finish for Charles without him getting rocked first. But, you're right in that Chandler is still dangerous. He's got power and pretty good timing and that alone makes him live.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

12 PYRAMIDS - 8.33% on ticket
4 processes
1 Eduarda Moura to W 2.25

2 Jim Miller to W 2.40

3 Chris Weidman to W 2.00

4 Ruffy vs Llontop 1.5 rounds over and Oban Elliot to W 2.30

5 Karine Silva to W by DEC 2.05

6 Jones vs Miocic 2.5 rounds over 2.20

7 Tybura vs Diniz 1.5 rounds over and Oliveira to W 2.30

8 Nickal vs Craig 1.5 rounds over 2.55

9 McGhee and Jones to W 2.00

10 Ramiz Brahimaj to W 2.10

11 Hafez vs Elliot 2.5 rounds over and Jones vs Miocic 1.5 rounds over 2.05

12 Oliveira to W, Silva to W, Ruffy to W 2.10

RISKIEST PICK BRAHIMAJ TO W
First process

Small stake on Nickal by decision 10.00

 

[ExitLUPin]

Lmao the over exaggeration is hilarious. Nickal was allegedly struggling with Woodburn yet the fight lasted 38 seconds. Keep talking yourself into throwing your money away though.

I said struggled with his wrestling. He attempted a TD on Woodburn and didn't come close. He was 1/4 on TDs against Jamie too. Elite collegiate wrestlers don't always translate their wrestling and there is 0 proof Bo has so far.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Tali

I'm playing:

Jon Jones to win by KO/TKO Round 1 @ +320 > 1 unit

Jones will likely look to replicate the Gane game-plan, stay on the outside until Stipe makes a mistake then rush the clinch, takedown, look to land GnP. I don't think Stipe has as terrible sub-defense as Gane (though he did give Overeem his neck). Jones will be looking to land GnP more than sub-hunt against someone like Stipe I think. I don't think Jones wants to fight a patient slow fight and risk giving Stipe opportunities to get a rhythm and a jab working, Jones stand-up looked like slop against Gane and I just don't trust his striking at HW.

Jon Jones/Stipe under 2.5 Rounds @ -145 > 2 units

Kind of an insurance bet for the other two bets, I just don't see it being a slow-paced fight outside of the first two minutes, Jones will want to get a clinch/takedown as soon as possible or risk letting Stipe get in a groove and potentially crack him (last thing to go is power and Stipe always had a decent overhand right). If Jones does push a pace early and can't get a finish he might just be labored and hittable early, Stipe will look to go after him and could hurt him or just give Jones more opportunities to clinch and rag doll where he is best. Don't see Stipe being very durable at this stage of the game so if Jones gets top position it's likely a wrap and he'll want to use those 12-6 elbows now that they are legal.

Michael Chandler to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 @ +900 > 1 unit

I think Oliviera will most likely win by a later submission or TKO, but I can't help but love the odds here - Chandler hurts everyone he fights in the first round (including Oliviera previously), he's kind of a pure first-round fighter that goes super-agro early and then gasses and gets finished later if it doesn't work. Oliviera gets hurt against everyone with good striking in the first round (Poirer, Gaethje, Chandler, Islam - only Arman couldn't do it and his stand-up is the worst of them all). I mean this is Chandler's last shot at making a title run, he'll probably go balls out early trying to blitz Oliviera before he gets comfortable with the timing/distance, so it seems like a predictable Zerg-rush type gameplan. Feel like this should +500 or less, so worth taking a small flyer on it.

*****

Don't talk me out of these picks Sherbros!

I had Khamzhat by first round sub against Whittaker as my insurance bet until I got convinced the most likely way he would win was by KO/TKO so I switched it last minute....

Tailing sherdoggers is always a great thing to do lol

 

[PuertoRican]

Sweet. The forum is back up and running.

 

[PuertoRican]

I favor Martinez, but I'm a bit concerned with how he might look after that last fight.
His "destroy everyone with my leg kicks" strat was shut down pretty hard when it went up against Aldo, and there is a good chance he mixes up/changes his gameplan for this next fight. Which might be a good thing, but it might take him away from what brought him such success previously.
A lot of times, when fighters go up and faces/loses to a higher caliber guy, they learn a lot from it and come out more lethal. So yeah, I think Martinez takes it, but like yourself, I am a bit worried we see a "different" Martinez this time.

As others probably have mentioned, Martinez isn't with the same team anymore, so we don't know how he'll look and how hus new coaches will do in his corner.

 

[sonhow]

The same concerns about Jones that were before Gane fight, still remain. That Gane fight basically showed us nothing except he can still force takedowns against poor grapplers. Choke looked like elite stuff but when is the last time someone showed so little resistance trying to fight the hold?
Not saying pay the house on the old man but think about it on larger scale before going all out on Jones.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

The same concerns about Jones that were before Gane fight, still remain. That Gane fight basically showed us nothing except he can still force takedowns against poor grapplers. Choke looked like elite stuff but when is the last time someone showed so little resistance trying to fight the hold?
Not saying pay the house on the old man but think about it on larger scale before going all out on Jones.

 

[sonhow]

View attachment 1071281

This GigaSharp1 sounds like a smart guy! Totally should post here!

 

[Stat_Collector]

Absolutely. But keep in mind Chandler is 38 now and hasn't fought in over 2 years (waiting for Conor). That age matters a lot more at LW than it would at 205 or HW.

I agree that rematches often aren't a repeat, I actually think this time that it's likely that means an earlier finish for Charles without him getting rocked first. But, you're right in that Chandler is still dangerous. He's got power and pretty good timing and that alone makes him live.

r1 is always Chandlers best rounds. Even in their first fight Charles had Chandler's back for some time and could not get the sub. Chandler only taps when he's exhausted and done like in the Poirier fight. So, Charles r1 finishes aren't highly rated, Dariush is his best r1 finish and he's not a super durable fighter. I just see Chandler as a late gasser. Someone who will go big or go broke early and fade in the later rounds.

He's lost 29% in r1 and 29% R3

I'm just going for the one that has the highest odds.

I favor Martinez, but I'm a bit concerned with how he might look after that last fight.
His "destroy everyone with my leg kicks" strat was shut down pretty hard when it went up against Aldo, and there is a good chance he mixes up/changes his gameplan for this next fight. Which might be a good thing, but it might take him away from what brought him such success previously.
A lot of times, when fighters go up and faces/loses to a higher caliber guy, they learn a lot from it and come out more lethal. So yeah, I think Martinez takes it, but like yourself, I am a bit worried we see a "different" Martinez this time.

The thing is his tactic for leg kicks worked on guys who were very boxing dependent. Mcghee doesn't fit that profile. He's a natural kicker and looks very solid everywhere. Going back to his older fights to amateur, he only lost to grapplers. He does a few things better than Martinez, one of those is his ability to mix combinations with kicks and punches, he has better hooks. Martinez has vulnerabilities to hooks, Aldo wobbled him with a lead hook, and he was koed by Grant's overhand which is relatively close to a hook. Mcghee has those heave hooks in his arsenal and a lot of fast explosive kicks.

I'm favoring Mcghee because he reminds me of Peyton Talbot, he has that 'flow state' fighting style where it looks almost like he's having fun out there, and he's got the right mindset for fighting. Martinez has a very point system fighting style, do what you can to win on the scorecards.