UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

[theTKDguy]

Fight goes the distance dricus/izzy 125+

toss up fight. But Izzy likely will survive. Izzy has never been koed, other than a standing tko which he may have survived had Herb not stepped in, debatable, i guess. Dricus went full 15 with Tavarez who has 6 ko losses and decision with Strickland who suffered two ko losses before. Him knocking out Whitaker is no surprise, he was knocked down multple times before, and koed by Wonderboy. Izzy has a high quality chin and recovery.

Agreed. Tbh, i think izzy by ko is the biggest danger. He's just a shaaarp striker on a good day, and dricus' got power and surpisingly good stamina but his technique and entrances to close range are mediocre. He CAN get caught. But I'm banking on his cardio and him having a good camp in order to recover and grapple quickly if so.

If Dricus wins ( likely), make no mistake about it, this shit is gonna be ugly. Similar to the desean fight. Close ass decision with grappling against the fence, couple tds but not much control in the later rds. People expecting aggresive caveman dricus missed his last fight: par for the course, defending champs fight in a more conservative way after winning the belt (as they should, these guys are all elite and you gotta respect the challengers). I do like dricus' guts tho, he fights for your Cash. Just a hard fight to pick a winner as it stands. Rather take a risk and go with the over.

 

[Stat_Collector]

DDP backs up more than Alex or Strickland, doesn't have the same sort of steady forward pressure no. What he does more is rush in behind one jab with the looping overhands you mentioned. Which are oddly effective at times but no, definitely don't have the power that Perreira's punches do. Keep in mind that the ones that Alex put Izzy away with were near the end of a 25 minute fight. Alex's power shots early would absolutely have more steam on them. He still had enough to get Izzy out of there but if that was in rd 1 or 2 we'd likely have seen Izzy unconscious like he was in the kickboxing KO.

Anyway it's those sequences where DDP sort of mini blitzes where we could see a finish either way.

There was a moment that Sean landed a clean shot to the dome that looked similar to the Izzy /perreira ko, hoping for me Dricus just resist and panics wrestle if he’s in trouble. I’m not worried so much about Izzy getting caught as i am Dricus, i feel Dricus has a smaller window

 

[mkess101]

There was a moment that Sean landed a clean shot to the dome that looked similar to the Izzy /perreira ko, hoping for me Dricus just resist and panics wrestle if he’s in trouble. I’m not worried so much about Izzy getting caught as i am Dricus, i feel Dricus has a smaller window

I agree when it comes to the standup, it's more likely that Izzy lands a crisp counter as DDP rushes him and that hurts DDP than it is that Izzy gets caught by DDP with something big.

That said, a DDP finish is still very possible because he's able to do damage with gnp that's become pretty rare in MMA. Izzy has been taken down and even controlled (Jan being the biggest example, but Vettori and Whitaker both has some TD's and control time too) but never really hurt on the ground. That's one thing DDP has that most guys don't, gnp that does actual damage. Even if it doesn't finish Izzy, it could lead to sequences where a finish is more likely. Guys make mistakes giving their backs and necks when they're absorbing real gnp.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Agreed. Tbh, i think izzy by ko is the biggest danger. He's just a shaaarp striker on a good day, and dricus' got power and surpisingly good stamina but his technique and entrances to close range are mediocre. He CAN get caught. But I'm banking on his cardio and him having a good camp in order to recover and grapple quickly if so.

If Dricus wins ( likely), make no mistake about it, this shit is gonna be ugly. Similar to the desean fight. Close ass decision with grappling against the fence, couple tds but not much control in the later rds. People expecting aggresive caveman dricus missed his last fight: par for the course, defending champs fight in a more conservative way after winning the belt (as they should, these guys are all elite and you gotta respect the challengers). I do like dricus' guts tho, he fights for your Cash. Just a hard fight to pick a winner as it stands. Rather take a risk and go with the over.

yeah i agree,the path for Dricus is more wrestling, the ko threat probably wider for izzy, but Izzy very rarely does ko anyone. He’s not shy about fighting boring and wining with leg kicks and staying away from Dricus power. i took the 135+ because its the only line i like.I never expect dog fight when its Izzy involved, i think this fight will not be to climatic but a regular snooze.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I agree when it comes to the standup, it's more likely that Izzy lands a crisp counter as DDP rushes him and that hurts DDP than it is that Izzy gets caught by DDP with something big.

That said, a DDP finish is still very possible because he's able to do damage with gnp that's become pretty rare in MMA. Izzy has been taken down and even controlled (Jan being the biggest example, but Vettori and Whitaker both has some TD's and control time too) but never really hurt on the ground. That's one thing DDP has that most guys don't, gnp that does actual damage. Even if it doesn't finish Izzy, it could lead to sequences where a finish is more likely. Guys make mistakes giving their backs and necks when they're absorbing real gnp.

Idk i kinda rate Strickland and Izzy’s grappling the same level. At this level in the game , i expect Izzy to grab his wrist and keep him from getting smashed. Unless Izzy gets knocked down first. Strickland got up smoothly and with no damage. I don’t see izzy dropped off so much in skill that he’s losing worst than Strickland.

 

[mkess101]

Idk i kinda rate Strickland and Izzy’s grappling the same level. At this level in the game , i expect Izzy to grab his wrist and keep him from getting smashed. Unless Izzy gets knocked down first. Strickland got up smoothly and with no damage. I don’t see izzy dropped off so much in skill that he’s losing worst than Strickland.

Strickland is a better grappler than Izzy. By a decent margin, though obviously Izzy made himself serviceable over the years. I'm not saying it's some sort of guarantee that if DDP gets him down he's gonna smash him, but it's one more possibility of real damage being done.

To me, it's sort of a weird thing where none of the outcomes that end in a finish are super likely on their own but when you add them all together there's a decent amount of paths to it ending itd.

 

[PuertoRican]

Jesus Aguilar was the only person who missed weight, and he missed by 1.5 pounds.

I wasn't gonna bet him anyway, but maybe he gasses and has a better chance to lose ITD instead of via decision.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Strickland is a better grappler than Izzy. By a decent margin, though obviously Izzy made himself serviceable over the years. I'm not saying it's some sort of guarantee that if DDP gets him down he's gonna smash him, but it's one more possibility of real damage being done.

To me, it's sort of a weird thing where none of the outcomes that end in a finish are super likely on their own but when you add them all together there's a decent amount of paths to it ending itd.

We’ll see, i hope you’re wrong heh.
Im just banking on this being another izzy fight. Like Jared or Vetori.

Jesus Aguilar was the only person who missed weight, and he missed by 1.5 pounds.

I wasn't gonna bet him anyway, but maybe he gasses and has a better chance to lose ITD instead of via decision.

dont jynx my bet.

I do know that Nicoll went 5 rounds with Renouf how has several sub losses. So Nicoll may not have the skill yet to finish. His top ctrl is better than his ability to sub.

 

[Guld]

Weigh in Photos:

Photos: UFC 305 official weigh-ins

Get a closer look at the fighters on the scale at UFC 305 official weigh-ins with these exclusive photos.

mmajunkie.usatoday.com

 

[Oblivian]

I'm going to sound like a major hater here, but I think the main event is hard to cap because both fighters aren't that easy to cap. Izzy gets overrated quite a bit and can lay duds. We saw that against Strickland which honestly shouldn't be that surprising in retrospect. He went back and forth with Gastelum which should have probably been an easy win if Izzy is as good as people think. Jan easily rode him out, which you could see DDP doing as well. On the flip side, I'm still in the camp that thinks DDP is a major overachiever. Despite getting it done, he still looks like he has major deficiencies. I think this is one of those fights where a bettor going hard on either side can argue there is evidence it would go that way and look easy in retrospect. I'm not one of them as I think both have areas to exploit. I'm going with Izzy though because I think he's looked better overall.

 

[mkess101]

I'm going to sound like a major hater here, but I think the main event is hard to cap because both fighters aren't that easy to cap. Izzy gets overrated quite a bit and can lay duds. We saw that against Strickland which honestly shouldn't be that surprising in retrospect. He went back and forth with Gastelum which should have probably been an easy win if Izzy is as good as people think. Jan easily rode him out, which you could see DDP doing as well. On the flip side, I'm still in the camp that thinks DDP is a major overachiever. Despite getting it done, he still looks like he has major deficiencies. I think this is one of those fights where a bettor going hard on either side can argue there is evidence it would go that way and look easy in retrospect. I'm not one of them as I think both have areas to exploit. I'm going with Izzy though because I think he's looked better overall.

Nah I think it's a solid take, I don't think you sound like a hater. Nobody can really argue how elite Izzy's striking is WHEN he's locked in. But like you said, he's had numerous fights where he just wasn't into it. Once is an anomaly. It's been multiple times.

DDP is an offensive dynamo but for sure he's got defensive holes. He's overcome them with toughness, aggression, and offense. Which can and does work, until it doesn't.

But in the end, the books agree with you because odds have now settled in at even. There are way better spots to go hard on this card for sure. Although I don't see this as a card stacked with great betting spots overall. Gamrot at -220 or whatever he opened at was the one imo. But that's gone too.

 

[Oblivian]

Nah I think it's a solid take, I don't think you sound like a hater. Nobody can really argue how elite Izzy's striking is WHEN he's locked in. But like you said, he's had numerous fights where he just wasn't into it. Once is an anomaly. It's been multiple times.

DDP is an offensive dynamo but for sure he's got defensive holes. He's overcome them with toughness, aggression, and offense. Which can and does work, until it doesn't.

But in the end, the books agree with you because odds have now settled in at even. There are way better spots to go hard on this card for sure. Although I don't see this as a card stacked with great betting spots overall. Gamrot at -220 or whatever he opened at was the one imo. But that's gone too.

I'm actually on Hooker in this fight. I think his knees can create problems and damage is such a criteria now. Hooker also doesn't mind a barnburner pace. To be fair though, this is a card that I could see getting buried on the main card. Not super confident in Izzy, but bet that one. Taking a stab on Kai too. Also taking a stab on Jingliang. Not really chasing many dogs on undercard though beside O'Neil

 

[mkess101]

I'm actually on Hooker in this fight. I think his knees can create problems and damage is such a criteria now. Hooker also doesn't mind a barnburner pace. To be fair though, this is a card that I could see getting buried on the main card. Not super confident in Izzy, but bet that one. Taking a stab on Kai too. Also taking a stab on Jingliang. Not really chasing many dogs on undercard though beside O'Neil

Hooker has good cardio and won't mind the pace, but I just don't see how he stops Gamrot's chain wrestling. Gamrot just shuts down offense against him vs anyone that's not also an elite grappler, which Dan isn't. That said, if you waited until now I can't argue too much given how wide the line has gotten.

Did you mean Tai I'm assuming? He's always live for a KO and at least won't have to worry about grappling vs Biggie Boi. Jair is definitely the more polished striker so I favor him, but at HW it matters less so I can't hate on a stab on the dog.

O'neill has a decent shot IF she can stay upright.

 

[Oblivian]

Hooker has good cardio and won't mind the pace, but I just don't see how he stops Gamrot's chain wrestling. Gamrot just shuts down offense against him vs anyone that's not also an elite grappler, which Dan isn't. That said, if you waited until now I can't argue too much given how wide the line has gotten.

Did you mean Tai I'm assuming? He's always live for a KO and at least won't have to worry about grappling vs Biggie Boi. Jair is definitely the more polished striker so I favor him, but at HW it matters less so I can't hate on a stab on the dog.

O'neill has a decent shot IF she can stay upright.

No, I meant KKF. Tai/Roz I've just played ITD in a couple parlays. Legit don't see how that goes the distance unless we somehow get Lewis/Ngannou 2.

 

[mkess101]

No, I meant KKF. Tai/Roz I've just played ITD in a couple parlays. Legit don't see how that goes the distance unless we somehow get Lewis/Ngannou 2.

Ohh I forget KKF's actual name is Kai haha. Yeah he's live. I have Erceg under fantasy score in a lot of Prizepicks lineups, it's one of my main plays. He can win the fight and not cover the score, I think they set it too high.

 

[svmr_db]

Anyone else think Dricus is the more likely to fade cardio wise as the fight goes longer? Especially if he's trying to implement a grappling heavy gameplan. Not even making a judgement on the Strickland fight that he held up well in. Just factoring in that the events in Australia give the fighters less hours than usual to rehydrate from weigh in to fight time, and he is a pretty large middleweight.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Anyone else think Dricus is the more likely to fade cardio wise as the fight goes longer? Especially if he's trying to implement a grappling heavy gameplan. Not even making a judgement on the Strickland fight that he held up well in. Just factoring in that the events in Australia give the fighters less hours than usual to rehydrate from weigh in to fight time, and he is a pretty large middleweight.

Not trying to make this come off rudely but of course lol if anyone fades it will be drisucs

 

[svmr_db]

Not trying to make this come off rudely but of course lol if anyone fades it will be drisucs

Well there were certainly some serious questions about his gas tank for the Strickland fight and he dispelled those. But with less weigh in time for this fight I think there are some valid concerns to discuss again.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Adesanya completed his medicals. Contracts have been signed between two parties. Everything is now official. And i can now announce that Dricus Du Plessis will defeat Israel Adesanya. HERE. WE. GO. Agreement reached last week with the fighter. Everything was okay with Dricus who was pushing for this deal all summer. Documents have been exchanged between both parties and everything is signed.

#herewego

 

[Georges Hefner]

I'm going to sound like a major hater here, but I think the main event is hard to cap because both fighters aren't that easy to cap. Izzy gets overrated quite a bit and can lay duds. We saw that against Strickland which honestly shouldn't be that surprising in retrospect. He went back and forth with Gastelum which should have probably been an easy win if Izzy is as good as people think. Jan easily rode him out, which you could see DDP doing as well. On the flip side, I'm still in the camp that thinks DDP is a major overachiever. Despite getting it done, he still looks like he has major deficiencies. I think this is one of those fights where a bettor going hard on either side can argue there is evidence it would go that way and look easy in retrospect. I'm not one of them as I think both have areas to exploit. I'm going with Izzy though because I think he's looked better overall.

I already reported that Dricus is gonna win. I just announced it