UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

[sonhow]

Im waiting for weigh in faceoffs but I may make a decent sized bet on Casey. These two have faced completely different levels of competion lately and seems like people are counting the hometown girl out too early. Classic mistake but I need to see Caseys energy before making any bets. If she looks defeated from the get go then its a pass for me.

 

[B.Goetz]

Im waiting for weigh in faceoffs but I may make a decent sized bet on Casey. These two have faced completely different levels of competion lately and seems like people are counting the hometown girl out too early. Classic mistake but I need to see Caseys energy before making any bets. If she looks defeated from the get go then its a pass for me.

Initially I was on Santos, but I think it will be a close fight. O'Neill likes to pressure, but has no head movement. That means she gets countered a lot against good strikers. Santos is not a good striker. O'Neill should have the edge in the striking department, but will need to avoid the clinch. I think the fight will be close, so I took O'Neill at +145.

 

[sonhow]

Initially I was on Santos, but I think it will be a close fight. O'Neill likes to pressure, but has no head movement. That means she gets countered a lot against good strikers. Santos is not a good striker. O'Neill should have the edge in the striking department, but will need to avoid the clinch. I think the fight will be close, so I took O'Neill at +145.

Tbf Im waiting for line to get better. Hopefully it does before face offs.

 

[Georges Hefner]

The thing with Gamrot is hes a chain wrestler meaning he’s gonna rinse and repeat with his takedowns like Karl williams

 

[Georges Hefner]

Round 1: Dricus takes Izzy down for the entire round with very little offense

Round 2: Dricus drops Izzy and mauls him on the ground

Round 3: Dricus keeps the fight standing, wanting to prove his striking. Izzy narrowly wins this round.

Round 4: Dricus takes Izzy down and submits him with a neck crank.

Dricus Du Plessis defeats Israel Adesanya via SUB (neck crank) Round 4 1:37

 

[Kazda1]

Tbf Im waiting for line to get better. Hopefully it does before face offs.

Line's moving in your favor seems like. I really would like to take Casey myself but worry her head movement is so bad she's likely to allow Santos to make Casey's so called advantages pretty much disappear. I worry at that point in an inevitable tie up, Casey's going to play right into the game Santos wants.

 

[svmr_db]

Looks like there's been a lot of movement on the Erceg/KKF fight last few days, Erceg was -230 a week ago and is now available as low as -155 currently.

 

[Stat_Collector]

It's possible, just unlikely he stands much with him. The point with someone like Beneil or Armen is that he KNEW that he couldn't just overwhelm them with grappling, he HAD to engage in some striking. I'm not sure he feels that way with Hooker at all. Maybe He stands more than I think he will but he may just spam TD's and purely grapple and Dan may not be able to do a damn thing about it.

I said turner and Guram. And Rda is questionable, he’s much smaller than hooker, older, and washed.


I don’t believe for a minute that grappling defense is playing a role in him getting dropped, because even with Turner he came grappling heavy and still got caught an in exchange.

Anyways i think we’ve hammered both sides , we’ll have to agree to disagree on some aspects, maybe a sub prop for Gamrot can have some value.

 

[mkess101]

I said turner and Guram. And Rda is questionable, he’s much smaller than hooker, older, and washed.


I don’t believe for a minute that grappling defense is playing a role in him getting dropped, because even with Turner he came grappling heavy and still got caught an in exchange.

Anyways i think we’ve hammered both sides , we’ll have to agree to disagree on some aspects, maybe a sub prop for Gamrot can have some value.

You kinda mentioned all those guys, Beneil and Armen included. Turner is an absolute monster. I'm a big dude (old now), competed at LHW way back when and I talked to Turner in Vegas the weekend of UFC 300. He's massive, I asked him how the hell he got down to 155 and he said that might be the last time he does it.

Anyway, from a betting perspective the value in Gamrot is gone anyway imo. He got steamed way too much for anyone to play now.

 

[Stat_Collector]

You kinda mentioned all those guys, Beneil and Armen included. Turner is an absolute monster. I'm a big dude (old now), competed at LHW way back when and I talked to Turner in Vegas the weekend of UFC 300. He's massive, I asked him how the hell he got down to 155 and he said that might be the last time he does it.

Anyway, from a betting perspective the value in Gamrot is gone anyway imo. He got steamed way too much for anyone to play now.

Hooker is big too. He’s 6’ for that division is big, and he is 75 inch in reach, he may not be Turner big but he matched him in physicality and pressured him and had him on skates . Dan has a strong grip and clinch, i think Gamrot is in for a tough fight, Hooker also has a mean snappy lead leg kick. I think it has a chance to be a dog fight or Dan chokes it and literally gets subbed. We’ll see.

 

[mkess101]

Hooker is big too. He’s 6’ for that division is big, and he is 75 inch in reach, he may not be Turner big but he matched him in physicality and pressured him and had him on skates . Dan has a strong grip and clinch, i think Gamrot is in for a tough fight, Hooker also has a mean snappy lead leg kick. I think it has a chance to be a dog fight or Dan chokes it and literally gets subbed. We’ll see.

Hooker isn't tiny, but dude somehow made 145 (granted it wasn't a good idea) so yeah he's nowhere near Jalen Turner size.
IDK if Gamrot will be aggressive hurting subs or try for more control.

 

[B.Goetz]

I love Gamrot, but I wouldn't touch him at these odds.

 

[burge13]

Really looking forward to Izzy's face when he's booed by the Aussie crowd. He thinks he's popular and this is a home ground advantage of sorts but he sure as shit isn't popular

As for who wins? I really don't rate DDP but he keeps getting it done somehow. Izzy by Decision lol

 

[sonhow]

Line's moving in your favor seems like. I really would like to take Casey myself but worry her head movement is so bad she's likely to allow Santos to make Casey's so called advantages pretty much disappear. I worry at that point in an inevitable tie up, Casey's going to play right into the game Santos wants.

Seems its moving towards Casey once again. If it gets too close I wont bother making any bets on this one.
Its just that many of the people doing their picks in public -analysts etc- have Santos in this one. I thought Id get way better odds the closer to the fight but it seems like it aint so atm.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Im waiting for weigh in faceoffs but I may make a decent sized bet on Casey. These two have faced completely different levels of competion lately and seems like people are counting the hometown girl out too early. Classic mistake but I need to see Caseys energy before making any bets. If she looks defeated from the get go then its a pass for me.

Initially I was on Santos, but I think it will be a close fight. O'Neill likes to pressure, but has no head movement. That means she gets countered a lot against good strikers. Santos is not a good striker. O'Neill should have the edge in the striking department, but will need to avoid the clinch. I think the fight will be close, so I took O'Neill at +145.

Line's moving in your favor seems like. I really would like to take Casey myself but worry her head movement is so bad she's likely to allow Santos to make Casey's so called advantages pretty much disappear. I worry at that point in an inevitable tie up, Casey's going to play right into the game Santos wants.

Before betting Casey make sure you have watched Luana's last fight prior to being signed to the UFC and take into consideration she knocked out Julianna Miller in three minutes in her debut, something Veronica Macedo couldn't do given an entire fight, as well as the fact she dropped Agapova in her last fight before submitting her. If you go back further into Luana's regional career she dropped another opponent (Djulia Ariana) as well; all with the same punch an overhand right.

Luana's striking can look sloppy at times but she clearly has a lot of power in her right hand.

The reason I bring it up is because Casey was hurt in her last fight, on several occasions, by the right hand of Lipski and it produced the finishing sequence where Lipski submitted her. Casey was dropped on the regionals by a right hand as well and if you look back even further into her career you will see she was knocked out twice as an amateur.

I'm not saying Casey cannot win the fight if it turns out to be a 15 minute kickboxing match but it is something to consider that she has shown herself susceptible to giving up these big moments which could be costly in rounds that are otherwise close.

 

[B.Goetz]

Before betting Casey make sure you have watched Luana's last fight prior to being signed to the UFC and take into consideration she knocked out Julianna Miller in three minutes in her debut, something Veronica Macedo couldn't do given an entire fight, as well as the fact she dropped Agapova in her last fight before submitting her. If you go back further into Luana's regional career she dropped another opponent (Djulia Ariana) as well; all with the same punch an overhand right.

Luana's striking can look sloppy at times but she clearly has a lot of power in her right hand.

The reason I bring it up is because Casey was hurt in her last fight, on several occasions, by the right hand of Lipski and it produced the finishing sequence where Lipski submitted her. Casey was dropped on the regionals by a right hand as well and if you look back even further into her career you will see she was knocked out twice as an amateur.

I'm not saying Casey cannot win the fight if it turns out to be a 15 minute kickboxing match but it is something to consider that she has shown herself susceptible to giving up these big moments which could be costly in rounds that are otherwise close.

Casey has 3" more reach than Bartira Rodriguez, and is a better striker. Julianna Miller is terrible, and Macedo is a TKD fighter who is still learning to use her hands. Agapova is overall a better striker than Casey (and a better grappler), so Casey really had no reprieve in that fight. I agree that Santos has power, but I think the real question is how long she can muscle these power punches before she slows down? Particularly if Casey follows her usual pattern of pressuring and forcing her opponent to go backwards/circle away? I still think the fight is about 50/50. If the fight is close in the first round, a live bet on Casey might be a smart way to play it.

ETA: Santos is fighting on three weeks notice after Tereza Bleda pulled out.

ETA: Here is Santos' performance against Julianna Miller. Miller is terrible.

 

[sonhow]

Before betting Casey make sure you have watched Luana's last fight prior to being signed to the UFC and take into consideration she knocked out Julianna Miller in three minutes in her debut, something Veronica Macedo couldn't do given an entire fight, as well as the fact she dropped Agapova in her last fight before submitting her. If you go back further into Luana's regional career she dropped another opponent (Djulia Ariana) as well; all with the same punch an overhand right.

Luana's striking can look sloppy at times but she clearly has a lot of power in her right hand.

The reason I bring it up is because Casey was hurt in her last fight, on several occasions, by the right hand of Lipski and it produced the finishing sequence where Lipski submitted her. Casey was dropped on the regionals by a right hand as well and if you look back even further into her career you will see she was knocked out twice as an amateur.

I'm not saying Casey cannot win the fight if it turns out to be a 15 minute kickboxing match but it is something to consider that she has shown herself susceptible to giving up these big moments which could be costly in rounds that are otherwise close.

Ive seen all those fights and I fully aknowledge that Santos can win this fight. She can win this fight by stoppage or by decision if the fight is fought at her pace. The thing is Ive seen Casey outpace opponents with volume before and shes lost her last two fights to better strikers than either one of these girls. It comes down to who wants it a little bit more in grappling exhanges, or if they are exhangin one the feet it comes down to who is willing to land that last punch. I expect a bit more focused but enertegic performance from Casey in front of her homecrowd and on two fight losing streak. Against an opponent coming in on short and who has gassed in simillar position vs Egger in the past.

 

[The Eagle]

What's up with Erceg line movement? Went down from -200 something to -160. Injury?

 

[B.Goetz]

Ive seen all those fights and I fully aknowledge that Santos can win this fight. She can win this fight by stoppage or by decision if the fight is fought at her pace. The thing is Ive seen Casey outpace opponents with volume before and shes lost her last two fights to better strikers than either one of these girls. It comes down to who wants it a little bit more in grappling exhanges, or if they are exhangin one the feet it comes down to who is willing to land that last punch. I expect a bit more focused but enertegic performance from Casey in front of her homecrowd and on two fight losing streak. Against an opponent coming in on short and who has gassed in simillar position vs Egger in the past.

Santos vs. Egger:


Honestly, this makes me think Santos could have some success with her Judo, as she got it going a bit against Egger, who is a Swiss national champion IIRC. Casey has a brown belt in BJJ, and is pretty good at getting back to her feet. If she can stay on her feet (ideally stay out of the clinch altogether) or get up quickly I like her chances.

 

[B.Goetz]

What's up with Erceg line movement? Went down from -200 something to -160. Injury?

I think people just rate KKF pretty highly. I know I do.