UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

[sonhow]

I guess Kenan vs Glenn comes down to if Glenn healed up his chin enough with this ww move. Glenn has had his moments but that chin seems to always fail him these days.
Also am I tripping but when Kenan debuted I could have sworn he was closer to his 40s. The info says he is 34. Now Im left here wondering if this guy is mmas Benjamin Button or something.

 

[B.Goetz]

One difference between Israel and Whittaker/Strickland is his kicking game. To try to just box against someone who is kicking and punching you is a very cardio-intensive way of fighting. I could see a scenario where Izzy kicks a lot to the legs and body of DDP, and uses teeps to control range (like Strickland did a little early in their fight) rather than fighting going backwards. I don't think DDP can check the kicks the way Strickland was able to. IMO, Strickland probably should have gotten the win over DDP with R1, R2, and R5 (although it was close). One factor that bears thought is the size difference. Strickland is built heavier than Israel, and DDP was significantly bigger than him. Israel tends to fight with his hands at chest level, relying on speed, movement, and the threat of the counter for defence. I think he's lost a step now that he's 35, and DDP could catch him and even finish him like Strickland almost did in the first round. I have lots of thoughts, but no clear read.

We haven't really talked about Erceg-KKF. Are we expecting Erceg to grapple him? Can KKF out-strike Erceg?

Considering Hooker as a dog. The judging criteria values damage over aggression and control. Hooker seems like he is more capable of damaging Gamrot than the other way around, even if he spends a significant amount of time fending off grappling. Pretty much the same reason I think Tafa beats Walker.

 

[mkess101]

One difference between Israel and Whittaker/Strickland is his kicking game. To try to just box against someone who is kicking and punching you is a very cardio-intensive way of fighting. I could see a scenario where Izzy kicks a lot to the legs and body of DDP, and uses teeps to control range (like Strickland did a little early in their fight) rather than fighting going backwards. I don't think DDP can check the kicks the way Strickland was able to. IMO, Strickland probably should have gotten the win over DDP with R1, R2, and R5 (although it was close). One factor that bears thought is the size difference. Strickland is built heavier than Israel, and DDP was significantly bigger than him. Israel tends to fight with his hands at chest level, relying on speed, movement, and the threat of the counter for defence. I think he's lost a step now that he's 35, and DDP could catch him and even finish him like Strickland almost did in the first round. I have lots of thoughts, but no clear read.

We haven't really talked about Erceg-KKF. Are we expecting Erceg to grapple him? Can KKF out-strike Erceg?

Considering Hooker as a dog. The judging criteria values damage over aggression and control. Hooker seems like he is more capable of damaging Gamrot than the other way around, even if he spends a significant amount of time fending off grappling. Pretty much the same reason I think Tafa beats Walker.

DDP doesn't know any other way to fight than with a ton of aggression. Pretty good chance he finds a finish (standing, with gnp, sub) or gets countered and blasted when he's too reckless crashing the distance. FDNGD probably has a little value. The memory of some of those Izzy snoozers still lingers though.

I'd agree it's maybe more likely Hooker does damage than that Gamrot does. The issue is the way more likely scenario imo is that NEITHER guy does much at all, with Gamrot blanketing Dan and stifling his offense completely. That said, odds got way wide so I can't say it's nuts to play Dan now. I have Gamrot at -250, but at -340 now...too steep. I also have plays on Gamrot under fantasy score on Underdog that hedges my ML play, I think there's a great chance I cash it all. (Gamrot wins but doesn't score enough fantasy pts to cover).

 

[Stat_Collector]

What's up with Erceg line movement? Went down from -200 something to -160. Injury?

Erceg is more of a boxer with decent check kicks, but he doesn't throw as many kicks as Brandon Moreno. He is also hittable; I thought he dropped round 2 to Costa, who hit him with some decent punches. Erceg relied on a cage-stalling strategy to keep Costa still because of the speed disadvantage. KKF has the speed to mix up his strikes and point fight to a decision. Erceg will likely try to push KKF to the cage and hold him to get his shots in. Because Erceg doesn't kick a lot, it makes it easier for KKF to use his corners to hit and run and work off the leg kick like a jab. I think Erceg's style played well with Pantoja because he meets you in the middle and exchanges inside, but KKF is a whole other style.
I think KKF is the right side of the value, but it's not high confidence. If I were betting on a bunch of underdogs in multiple MMA cards, only betting small units, KKF hits the criteria as a low sprinkle punt play.

 

[Kazda1]

Santos vs. Egger:


Honestly, this makes me think Santos could have some success with her Judo, as she got it going a bit against Egger, who is a Swiss national champion IIRC. Casey has a brown belt in BJJ, and is pretty good at getting back to her feet. If she can stay on her feet (ideally stay out of the clinch altogether) or get up quickly I like her chances.

I think the other thing is she missed weight and fought up a weight class in this fight. She handled herself quite well against a bigger girl with high grapple credentials herself. I don't see it for Casey here although I'd like to.

 

[Georges Hefner]

After Dricus wins, im going on a shopping spree. I have lots of designer clothes to purchase for this upcoming winter . I have my wishlist ready

 

[Stat_Collector]

Stewart Nicoll seems legit, well deserved price. Looks like a promising prospect. He knows his strength and uses it effectively.

 

[mkess101]

Stewart Nicoll seems legit, well deserved price. Looks like a promising prospect. He knows his strength and uses it effectively.

Yeah. Might like his decision line better vs paying the juice on his ML though. Aguilar 2 sub losses, his pro debut like 10 years ago, and then by Taira who's obviously a legit title contender with super slick grappling. I don't see a finish for Nicoll, but I can see him keeping Aguilar off balance and winning minutes.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah. Might like his decision line better vs paying the juice on his ML though. Aguilar 2 sub losses, his pro debut like 10 years ago, and then by Taira who's obviously a legit title contender with super slick grappling. I don't see a finish for Nicoll, but I can see him keeping Aguilar off balance and winning minutes.

no argument here. he’s australian that fights like a daga fighter . I tend to believe he will wall grind to a decision. Jesus does give up his back a lot, a third round sub maybe , but eh not really feeling excited about the matchup. grappler vs grappler are my least favorite fights to bet on.

Edit: @mkess101 i ultimately ended playing the fgtd.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Ive been talking a lot on fights i pass on.

But Jingliang is my top dog pick. very easy to defend this pick.

a layoff and a less sturdy chin is his main issue, but he is being deflated by recency bias. Prates is undeserving of that line coming off those opponents who Li would have dismantled as well.

 

[impressivegoal]

Does anyone else think there’s good value in u2.5 -145 in Prates fight?

Feels like they’re feeding him a highlight KO to kick off the card. Li’s never been KO’d but he hasn’t fought in 2years and Prates banging through everyone in front of him. And Li is capable of a ko himself if he’s not washed. I expected the o/u to be closer to 1.5.

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

Ive been talking a lot on fights i pass on.

But Jingliang is my top dog pick. very easy to defend this pick.

a layoff and a less sturdy chin is his main issue, but he is being deflated by recency bias. Prates is undeserving of that line coming off those opponents who Li would have dismantled as well.

Keep in mind that Leech is also coming from a major spine surgery. I agree that line os Very wide tho.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Keep in mind that Leech is also coming from a major spine surgery. I agree that line os Very wide tho.

I'm willing to overlook injuries, layoffs, and the fact that he's 36 or even that he's been dropped in past fights.

In the fight against Giles, Prates was getting tagged significantly. His defense is lacking—he doesn't have an effective response to pressure other than backing up with his hands up and then trying to reset. Although his KO against Giles ended the fight, he was losing up until that point.

Prates has long limbs, which helps him in fights, but he's very susceptible to getting hit, especially by hooks. If Leech connects like Giles did, it could end the fight. Leech had a potential win against D. Rod, and he's beaten Ponz, Salikov, and Elizeu. There's no reason for Prates to be the favorite, especially coming off wins against regional talent and Giles. Prates has been KO'd before, so it's definitely possible again. The odds on Leech by KO are standing at +650 on some books, which is crazy.

I've already staked 250 on Leech by KO.

 

[Broe.]

After Dricus wins, im going on a shopping spree. I have lots of designer clothes to purchase for this upcoming winter . I have my wishlist ready

Gay?

 

[Georges Hefner]

Gay?

No im geting married to Dakota ditcheva next year . Im very flamboyant

 

[Georges Hefner]

Adesnya soft and not beating Dricus the chad. Izzy has no chance

 

[Stat_Collector]

Fight goes the distance dricus/izzy 125+

toss up fight. But Izzy likely will survive. Izzy has never been koed, other than a standing tko which he may have survived had Herb not stepped in, debatable, i guess. Dricus went full 15 with Tavarez who has 6 ko losses and decision with Strickland who suffered two ko losses before. Him knocking out Whitaker is no surprise, he was knocked down multple times before, and koed by Wonderboy. Izzy has a high quality chin and recovery.

 

[mkess101]

Fight goes the distance dricus/izzy 125+

toss up fight. But Izzy likely will survive. Izzy has never been koed, other than a standing tko which he may have survived had Herb not stepped in, debatable, i guess. Dricus went full 15 with Tavarez who has 6 ko losses and decision with Strickland who suffered two ko losses before. Him knocking out Whitaker is no surprise, he was knocked down multple times before, and koed by Wonderboy. Izzy has a high quality chin and recovery.

Meh...disagree. Izzy wasn't surviving that onslaught from Alex. He was also straight up flatlined and knocked completely out cold by Alex in kickboxing. All that said, I'm not saying his chin is bad...just that he's not the MW version of Max Holloway.

DDP imo isn't a massive hitter standing, but he has good gnp and is aggressive as hell.
The other reason I don't like fight goes distance much is that DDP's aggression plays into Izzy's strengths as a finisher. Izzy doesn't finish guys who sit back and play the distance kickboxing game with him. He's happy to outpoint them in relatively boring fights like Romero, Brunson, etc. But guys who come at him...Izzy is fully capable of shutting them off. Look at Alex when he got overly aggressive in the 2nd fight. Good fucking night. And DDP only knows how to fight aggressively.

Obviously the fight COULD see the cards but I'd need bigger odds to be tempted.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Meh...disagree. Izzy wasn't surviving that onslaught from Alex. He was also straight up flatlined and knocked completely out cold by Alex in kickboxing. All that said, I'm not saying his chin is bad...just that he's not the MW version of Max Holloway.

DDP imo isn't a massive hitter standing, but he has good gnp and is aggressive as hell.
The other reason I don't like fight goes distance much is that DDP's aggression plays into Izzy's strengths as a finisher. Izzy doesn't finish guys who sit back and play the distance kickboxing game with him. He's happy to outpoint them in relatively boring fights like Romero, Brunson, etc. But guys who come at him...Izzy is fully capable of shutting them off. Look at Alex when he got overly aggressive in the 2nd fight. Good fucking night. And DDP only knows how to fight aggressively.

Obviously the fight COULD see the cards but I'd need bigger odds to be tempted.

Consider that Dricus might rely on grappling, with plenty of clinching and wrestling in this fight.

Although Izzy might have eventually been knocked out, it was impressive that he absorbed so many punches without being put to sleep. He’s taken Alex's left hook flush and stayed on his feet. I don't think Dricus has that kind of power; his punches are more loopy overhands.

I don't see Dricus applying the same pressure to walk opponents down toward the cage like Alex does. Only Alex fights that way. Dricus is more of a "stand your ground" fighter, preferring to control the center of the octagon, fighting behind the jab. He frequently switches stances, keeps a high guard, and looks for openings. Remember, it was a stiff jab that dropped Whittaker. Dricus does have some pressure, but it’s usually more with grappling than striking.

I think Dricus’s high finishing rate gives the impression of an aggressive fighter, but he isn’t like Pereira or Strickland in that regard. He tends to pivot backward more often. To me, this fight seems like it could resemble a typical Muay Thai match in RIZIN that ends up going to the scorecards.

 

[mkess101]

Consider that Dricus might rely on grappling, with plenty of clinching and wrestling in this fight.

Although Izzy might have eventually been knocked out, it was impressive that he absorbed so many punches without being put to sleep. He’s taken Alex's left hook flush and stayed on his feet. I don't think Dricus has that kind of power; his punches are more loopy overhands.

I don't see Dricus applying the same pressure to walk opponents down toward the cage like Alex does. Only Alex fights that way. Dricus is more of a "stand your ground" fighter, preferring to control the center of the octagon, fighting behind the jab. He frequently switches stances, keeps a high guard, and looks for openings. Remember, it was a stiff jab that dropped Whittaker. Dricus does have some pressure, but it’s usually more with grappling than striking.

I think Dricus’s high finishing rate gives the impression of an aggressive fighter, but he isn’t like Pereira or Strickland in that regard. He tends to pivot backward more often. To me, this fight seems like it could resemble a typical Muay Thai match in RIZIN that ends up going to the scorecards.

DDP backs up more than Alex or Strickland, doesn't have the same sort of steady forward pressure no. What he does more is rush in behind one jab with the looping overhands you mentioned. Which are oddly effective at times but no, definitely don't have the power that Perreira's punches do. Keep in mind that the ones that Alex put Izzy away with were near the end of a 25 minute fight. Alex's power shots early would absolutely have more steam on them. He still had enough to get Izzy out of there but if that was in rd 1 or 2 we'd likely have seen Izzy unconscious like he was in the kickboxing KO.

Anyway it's those sequences where DDP sort of mini blitzes where we could see a finish either way.