UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

[Guld]

If you knew Gamrot was likely to give up a round due to a knockdown, why risk it? Even at his best, that’s a 33% reduction in his chances of winning a decision. He got dropped by Beneil, who isn’t known for his striking power. Plus, Hooker’s takedown defense isn’t far off from guys like Guram or Fiziev, who stuffed 5 out of 6 of his takedown attempts.

Plus, Hooker is taller and has a 5 inch reach advantage.

It's hard to forget how easily Islam sliced through him.
Aside from Puelles, and his failed attempt to grab ankles, who else has truly threatened Hooker with grappling?
Chandler and Poirier potentially could have, but neither of them even needed to.
Speaking of Chandler, both he and Allen got R1 stoppages over Hooker recently. Gamrot may get dropped/rocked, but he doesn't get finished. Hooker does.
With that being said, there are levels to grappling, and just because Islam can make you look like a white belt doesn't mean that Gamrot will as well. Gamrot got shut down HARD by Dariush and when forced to strike looked amateur at best, so there is definitely a path to victory there for Hooker.

 

[Stat_Collector]

It's hard to forget how easily Islam sliced through him.
Aside from Puelles, and his failed attempt to grab ankles, who else has truly threatened Hooker with grappling?
Chandler and Poirier potentially could have, but neither of them even needed to.
Speaking of Chandler, both he and Allen got R1 stoppages over Hooker recently. Gamrot may get dropped/rocked, but he doesn't get finished. Hooker does.
With that being said, there are levels to grappling, and just because Islam can make you look like a white belt doesn't mean that Gamrot will as well. Gamrot got shut down HARD by Dariush and when forced to strike looked amateur at best, so there is definitely a path to victory there for Hooker.

Gamrot is highly unlikely to KO Hooker—two of his KOs were due to injuries. Hooker has a higher chance of scoring a knockdown than Gamrot does of securing a knockout. Even though Gamrot has good recovery, it won’t help him much unless he can seriously hurt Hooker, which I don’t see happening.

Islam Makhachev was the only one who managed to slice through Hooker’s guard and dominate him. I believe Hooker has enough skill to survive and get back to his feet.

This fight could go either way. Gamrot might use his superior pace to land shots while feinting takedowns, making Hooker second-guess his defense against both takedowns and strikes. Alternatively, Hooker could neutralize Gamrot’s grappling and pick him apart from the outside.

If Hooker scores two separate knockdowns in two different rounds, which is possible, he could steal the fight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

This is another hometown card.

Australians and Uk ,French fighters always perform well in their homecourt. Something to consider in these fights.

 

[mkess101]

Gamrot doesn't need to advance or even hold Hooker down for entire rounds. If Hooker gets back up, Gamrot will just be all over him and take him down again. Gamrot has insane cardio and can keep shooting until he gets it. Hooker won't have an answer most likely.

 

[B.Goetz]

I'm thinking Tafa can deal with Walker's leg-hugging takedowns, and Walker will be forced to go for them with greater urgency than against Brzeski because Tafa has more dangerous striking than Brzeski. Need to watch how Muhammad Usman was able to beat Tafa, to see if he got out-wrestled.

EDIT: OK. Usman almost got KO'd in the first, but managed to survive. Tafa has decent initial TDD, but no get-ups. Usman was a little lucky to get a decision win considering how little damage he did.

 

[B.Goetz]

Culibao down to -146. I don't think I can trust his wrestling defence after his last fight where he kept getting caught in the same rear waist-lock, and I'm not sure he's got the submission skills to catch Ramos in a choke for the third fight in a row.

 

[Yotsuya]

What's this spine injury Leech had last year? So far he has always over-performed against strikers.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Gamrot doesn't need to advance or even hold Hooker down for entire rounds. If Hooker gets back up, Gamrot will just be all over him and take him down again. Gamrot has insane cardio and can keep shooting until he gets it. Hooker won't have an answer most likely.

He is a lot like Merab, but his chin betrays him, he had a close fight with Jailyn Turner because he lost almost every exchange on the feet but held him down. If Hooker beat Turner on the feet and can grapple better, no reason to think he can't outperform Turner's performance and do enough to go past the split decision. It's going to be sweaty I predict. If Gamrot wins, it's going to be a split dec where he got stunned a few times and wrestled his way into an exhausting point. idk , my radar tells me to pass. I lost 1k once betting on Askar Askorov when he fought Kai Kara France. I can see him being somewhat safe because he is 24-2 and Hooker is 23-12 but that is also how i thought Askar was safe, this style matchup sometimes goes unfavorable. I tend to favor Gamrot in 5 round fights, its why i picked him against Arman.

Edit: i should add Gamrot came in on short notice against Turner so there is that point.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

If you do the heavy research, sure you can be the anomaly, but are you going to dive deep and find that mma fight from ' Samurai showdown 63' from 4 years ago where this prelim fighter got dropped, koed, or did some low iq tendency?

AT least with ufc regulars i know what I'm getting. They come from better gyms and better coaching. I'm going to try it out and see what happens. I've had more success with main cards than prelims.

That is what is required to turn a profit because oddsmakers are unfortunately just a lot sharper nowadays.

The most mispriced fights take place on the undercard so to rule them out entirely is a mistake imo.

gl though.

 

[Stat_Collector]

That is what is required to turn a profit because oddsmakers are unfortunately just a lot sharper nowadays.

The most mispriced fights take place on the undercard so to rule them out entirely is a mistake imo.

gl though.

not always.

O’malley/Sterling i went with sean at 300+

Merab/Yan 200+

Dricus/Whittaker 250+

Grasso/Shevchenko 600+

Sean/Izzy- i didn’t bet this one but it was 600+

Gamrot/Arman 300+

Fiorot/Blanchfield 150+

Blaydes/Almeida 125+



mma bookies make mistake of going with public perception all the time. They inflate and often set prices with narrative perception. If anything bookies often set undercards much closer because they only go by what they see on video. They dont rely on hype.

 

[mkess101]

He is a lot like Merab, but his chin betrays him, he had a close fight with Jailyn Turner because he lost almost every exchange on the feet but held him down. If Hooker beat Turner on the feet and can grapple better, no reason to think he can't outperform Turner's performance and do enough to go past the split decision. It's going to be sweaty I predict. If Gamrot wins, it's going to be a split dec where he got stunned a few times and wrestled his way into an exhausting point. idk , my radar tells me to pass. I lost 1k once betting on Askar Askorov when he fought Kai Kara France. I can see him being somewhat safe because he is 24-2 and Hooker is 23-12 but that is also how i thought Askar was safe, this style matchup sometimes goes unfavorable. I tend to favor Gamrot in 5 round fights, its why i picked him against Arman.

Edit: i should add Gamrot came in on short notice against Turner so there is that point.

Here's another thing: Hooker maybe outstruck Turner (was close) but he doesn't have the power Turner does to really threaten to hurt Gamrot. Hooker may land a few but I don't necessarily think that means he's gonna stun or hurt Gamrot, and most likely he's getting taken down pretty quickly after.

Askarov gassed vs KKF and couldn't wrestle the 2nd half of that fight. I can't remember Gamrot slowing down at all, even in high paced fights. (And came on late vs Armen even). I listen to MMA Today on satellite radio and Din Thomas was raving about Gamrot a couple weeks ago. Said he's maybe never seen a guy who can push like Gamrot (then corrected himself and brought up Merab haha).

So all that said--Gamrot has gotten steamed to like -330 which is a hard pass. I was fine with paying -250 on him and was gonna look to add something to his decision line but that's gonna be juiced AF now, so I'm just gonna ride with what I have.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Here's another thing: Hooker maybe outstruck Turner (was close) but he doesn't have the power Turner does to really threaten to hurt Gamrot. Hooker may land a few but I don't necessarily think that means he's gonna stun or hurt Gamrot, and most likely he's getting taken down pretty quickly after.

Askarov gassed vs KKF and couldn't wrestle the 2nd half of that fight. I can't remember Gamrot slowing down at all, even in high paced fights. (And came on late vs Armen even). I listen to MMA Today on satellite radio and Din Thomas was raving about Gamrot a couple weeks ago. Said he's maybe never seen a guy who can push like Gamrot (then corrected himself and brought up Merab haha).

So all that said--Gamrot has gotten steamed to like -330 which is a hard pass. I was fine with paying -250 on him and was gonna look to add something to his decision line but that's gonna be juiced AF now, so I'm just gonna ride with what I have.

Beneil and Rda are less lethal than hooker.

Hooker would be closer to odds vs those guys.

The narrative favors Gamrot, he’s the guy we think can pose the threat to Islam. Its why i wont play Hooker. But i’m trying to not get into this ‘follow the narrative mindset.’

Johnny the Greek would say ‘fade the narrative.’ this falls under that category.

Its probably going to look like when Merab fought Jose Aldo. But i have to follow my notes. Otherwise i have no discipline. pass also

 

[Bakayoko]

Gamrot By decision is the way to play it

If you knew Gamrot was likely to give up a round due to a knockdown, why risk it? Even at his best, that’s a 33% reduction in his chances of winning a decision. He got dropped by Beneil, who isn’t known for his striking power. Plus, Hooker’s takedown defense isn’t far off from guys like Guram or Fiziev, who stuffed 5 out of 6 of his takedown attempts.

Plus, Hooker is taller and has a 5 inch reach advantage.

I'm a help you guys cause I'm a wonderful man:
Play Gamrot decision and Hooker +3.5,that way you'll both have double victories

 

[mkess101]

Beneil and Rda are less lethal than hooker.

Hooker would be closer to odds vs those guys.

The narrative favors Gamrot, he’s the guy we think can pose the threat to Islam. Its why i wont play Hooker. But i’m trying to not get into this ‘follow the narrative mindset.’

Johnny the Greek would say ‘fade the narrative.’ this falls under that category.

Its probably going to look like when Merab fought Jose Aldo. But i have to follow my notes. Otherwise i have no discipline. pass also

Beneil and RDA have something Hooker doesn't--elite grappling. Gamrot is also an elite grappler but it's really his pace that tends to wear guys down. He couldn't wear Beneil down because Beneil could match his grappling and made Gamrot strike. Hooker imo won't be able to replicate that at all. I'd be stunned actually if it looks like Merab vs Aldo. With Aldo you're talking about all-time legendary TDD, so Merab basically had to wall n stall him the entire fight to win. If Hooker shows that level TDD...I will be incredibly impressed.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm a help you guys cause I'm a wonderful man:
Play Gamrot decision and Hooker +3.5,that way you'll both have double victories

A finish is not outside the question .

Beneil and RDA have something Hooker doesn't--elite grappling. Gamrot is also an elite grappler but it's really his pace that tends to wear guys down. He couldn't wear Beneil down because Beneil could match his grappling and made Gamrot strike. Hooker imo won't be able to replicate that at all. I'd be stunned actually if it looks like Merab vs Aldo. With Aldo you're talking about all-time legendary TDD, so Merab basically had to wall n stall him the entire fight to win. If Hooker shows that level TDD...I will be incredibly impressed.

Turner and Guram didn’t match his grappling either, even if you think they hit harder than Hooker . He doesn’t have to hit as hard as them, just as hard as Beneil,Arman, or Rda. The knockdowns are happening in strking exchanges. Gamrot is 40% kickboxer and 60% grappler. It’s not like Gamrot is opposed to trading with Hooker. He can get dropped in those exchanges.

 

[Georges Hefner]

A finish is not outside the question .



Turner and Guram didn’t match his grappling either, even if you think they hit harder than Hooker . He doesn’t have to hit as hard as them, just as hard as Beneil,Arman, or Rda. The knockdowns are happening in strking exchanges. Gamrot is 40% kickboxer and 60% grappler. It’s not like Gamrot is opposed to trading with Hooker. He can get dropped in those exchanges.

Dan Hooker is washed, hes been washed for a couple years now

 

[Icanseeu]

All right I once again have bet a parlay I've done this the last two week and have one them. This week I've got Leech the guy fighting the guy who drinks out of shoes and the South African guy for iirc +700.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Dan Hooker is washed, hes been washed for a couple years now

Beating Jailyn turner says otherwise. Both of these guys are near the same age.

 

[mkess101]

A finish is not outside the question .



Turner and Guram didn’t match his grappling either, even if you think they hit harder than Hooker . He doesn’t have to hit as hard as them, just as hard as Beneil,Arman, or Rda. The knockdowns are happening in strking exchanges. Gamrot is 40% kickboxer and 60% grappler. It’s not like Gamrot is opposed to trading with Hooker. He can get dropped in those exchanges.

It's possible, just unlikely he stands much with him. The point with someone like Beneil or Armen is that he KNEW that he couldn't just overwhelm them with grappling, he HAD to engage in some striking. I'm not sure he feels that way with Hooker at all. Maybe He stands more than I think he will but he may just spam TD's and purely grapple and Dan may not be able to do a damn thing about it.

 

[sonhow]

Gamrot wrestling will just be too much for Danny boy to handle. He may have success early but once Gamrot begins scrambling he will run him through like he did RDA. I wouldnt be shocked if he even submitted him. One way to beat Gamrot is be a better scrambler. Dariush did it but Danny aint no Dariush thats for certain.