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- Nov 2, 2019
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Usman toes curled and involuntary feet shakes and tremors after his dome was caved in. He was already stiffening from Colby jabs, he's never the same after head kick. It's another ko for edwards.Already parlayed Usman+Fisiev.
Usman dominated almost the entire fight last time (Leon hit a TD early, and obviously the head kick KO late...but the rest of the fight was Usman doing whatever he wanted with his grappling) so the head kick KO by Leon is giving us a discounted price on Usman here imo.
Fisiev is just the better striker in a fight that likely will have almost no grappling. Gaethje did reinvent himself prior to the Ferguson fight, and started caring about defense and was less interested in just wildly brawling. But then for a lot of the war with Chandler, he reverted to being the guy who just wanted to put on a show.
I'm comfortable paying this juice on both these guys.
Usman toes curled and involuntary feet shakes and tremors after his dome was caved in. He was already stiffening from Colby jabs, he's never the same after head kick. It's another ko for edwards.
I have reservations about:
Jake Hadley: This guy was a favourite over Allan Nascimento, which says he's massively overrated. Low confidence in Malcolm Gordon, but he gave Mokaev fits, and Mokaev is way better than Hadley. At best, Hadley should be -150.
Casey O'Neill: I have to tape this, but initial assumption is Maia wins this.
Gunnar Nelson: Probably getting starched in 2023, Bryan been doing that veteran-beating tour and Gunnar not being an active fighter or a good striker could cost him
Rafael Fiziev: I believe in Fiziev, but Gaethje could easily clock him.
Barbs shot, even if he does stand with him he wins. I agree he wont thoughGunnar will stand with Barb for all of about 2 seconds imo.
I like neither of those guys at these odds, no wayAlready parlayed Usman+Fisiev.
Usman dominated almost the entire fight last time (Leon hit a TD early, and obviously the head kick KO late...but the rest of the fight was Usman doing whatever he wanted with his grappling) so the head kick KO by Leon is giving us a discounted price on Usman here imo.
Fisiev is just the better striker in a fight that likely will have almost no grappling. Gaethje did reinvent himself prior to the Ferguson fight, and started caring about defense and was less interested in just wildly brawling. But then for a lot of the war with Chandler, he reverted to being the guy who just wanted to put on a show.
I'm comfortable paying this juice on both these guys.
But Is he a….lock?Fiziev is free money …. I expect his line to jump to -400
smash his line while it’s still -250
View attachment 973555
But Is he a….lock?
Bahahah … he’s the biggest lock in the card …. More confident in fiziev to smoke gaethe then I am in Mokaev (a -800 favorite)
Do you think Fiziev gets it done ITD? Also whats your thoughts on Dolidze? I think his scrambling ability will disrupt Marvin’s grappling
Mokaev is better than Hadley, but I’d pick Hadley to beat him. The reason is that Mokaev doesn’t have great jiu-jitsu. By that, I mean that while he might have a few sneaky submissions, he isn’t positionally aware. Gordon gave him trouble because Mokaev kept giving him underhooks. Hadley might not have the wrestling of a Mokaev, but is better on the ground and should roll through Gordon, which is what the odds indicate, of course.I have reservations about:
Jake Hadley: This guy was a favourite over Allan Nascimento, which says he's massively overrated. Low confidence in Malcolm Gordon, but he gave Mokaev fits, and Mokaev is way better than Hadley. At best, Hadley should be -150.
Casey O'Neill: I have to tape this, but initial assumption is Maia wins this.
Gunnar Nelson: Probably getting starched in 2023, Bryan been doing that veteran-beating tour and Gunnar not being an active fighter or a good striker could cost him
Rafael Fiziev: I believe in Fiziev, but Gaethje could easily clock him.
I like neither of those guys at these odds, no way
garthje is too dangerous. We’ve seen fiz finished by a body shot and lose to Bobby green.
usman may be approaching done/retirement. Edwards will fight with confidence now, especially in front of the home crowd. I expect a much better showing from him this time out
I see the angles but I think the numbers are wide. I played gaethje at +235. Nothing on Leon yetI think Justin is nearing the end and the difference in mileage is going to show up here. Like, if you make the analogy to a car, Justin has been taken off-roading through harsh terrain the majority of his career. He's taken insane amounts of damage, even in wins. Fisiev is a talented striker, and just WAY less shopworn. He didn't "lose" to Green either. He won a very close decision that could have gone either way. And Green is a hell of a boxer, or at least was a couple years ago when that fight took place.
It's possible it goes that way with Usman, but literally ONE head kick is what we're talking about. If that kick doesn't land with 1 minute to go in a lopsided fight up until that point, there would be ZERO talk of Usman being "almost done". He threw Leon around for most of 5 rounds. His cardio was on point, as was his wrestling. I guess we can say Leon will "fight better, with more confidence"...but I'm not sure how that catches him up in the gap in grappling ability. I think it's likely this is similar to a Nunes/Pena situation where afterwards everyone is saying "Ahhh why didn't I take advantage of that line??"