UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

I see the angles but I think the numbers are wide. I played gaethje at +235. Nothing on Leon yet

At least you got good odds on Justin. I'm seeing him under +200 now, +190 or so. I have Fisiev -213 and I'm comfortable backing him around 2-1. I think he's gonna look more like -350 to -400. But...I've been wrong before LOL!
 
At least you got good odds on Justin. I'm seeing him under +200 now, +190 or so. I have Fisiev -213 and I'm comfortable backing him around 2-1. I think he's gonna look more like -350 to -400. But...I've been wrong before LOL!
Fiziev is faster but man Justin still has that chin and power. A guy I don’t want to bet against unless his opponent has subs
 
yes I will be placing more on fiziev once the props drop ….. fiziev and miller inside the distance

I am a HUGE dolidze fan ….. Marvin might be a nightmare match for him though … Marvin decision or dolidze sub seems like the most likely scenarios to me .

marvin has a cement head - the guy can’t be knocked out ….. and his cardio is miles better then dolidzes …. So I could see a smart marvin keeping it standing and winning with jabs for 3 rounds .

surely he’s aware dolidze is a world champion grappler with next level skills …. So I don’t thinkMarvin will try to play his usual grind on top game .

and standing dolidze is pretty basic - he throws with enormous power but marvin has that cement head - so I gotta favor Marvin’s point fighting standup .

*** I will be rooting bigtime for dolidze thiugh - I’m a big fan !!!

Awesome analysis! 5/5 Thank you upload_2023-3-12_22-45-33.gif
 
Fiziev is faster but man Justin still has that chin and power. A guy I don’t want to bet against unless his opponent has subs

I tend to always lean towards younger fighters with less mileage if they've proven they can beat established guys (which Fisiev has). But yeah, there's no question Justin still carries the power to change a fight quickly.
 
Murphy vs Santos - Murphy should win. If you got Santos at opening odds, good job, I’m jealous. Murphy’s odds are climbing and at anything near evens, which is where I expect his odds to end up, a bet on Murphy is merited. Evolução Thai apparently breeds athletic freaks with massive punching power, but unlike their sports doctors, I don’t think too highly of the coaches. They get great raw talent but don’t develop it. Santos has a few sneaky moves on the ground but not very good positionally. His fight with Brenner was very messy. Takedowns are fairly good, but defense isn’t great. On the feet, he’s there to be hit, but Santos is a chainsaw with massive power. He looked improved against Delano, but that might be because of the height and reach advantage, which he won’t have against Murphy. Murphy has much more process to his game and should win a decision. Short notice also doesn’t help. I just watched everything I could find on Santos to clear up my memory, but still need to go through Murphy’s footage. Will get back and correct this post if I change my mind afterwards.
 
Bahahah … he’s the biggest lock in the card …. More confident in fiziev to smoke gaethe then I am in Mokaev (a -800 favorite)
Just for the record, your big bet on Davey grant—was it a good bet or a bad bet?
 
I might have been a bit unfair towards Santos. After all, he’s had very tough opponents so far. Delano, Barbosa, and Brenner are all UFC level and he ran through Delano, came back to win against Barbosa after a rocky 1st, and would have beat Brenner very dominantly if he didn’t concede a few takedowns in the second. He is a very high level prospect but still a little raw and, because of this, beatable. I wouldn’t be surprised if he someday ends up like Charles Oliveira, should he level up his game.
 
Just for the record, your big bet on Davey grant—was it a good bet or a bad bet?

isn’t a winning bet A good bet ?

I was certain I lost though …. I was very disappointed by his output ….. when he landed the spinning back fist to inverted triangle I dropped my beer lol

Im 99% sure on fiziev though …. As confident as one can be ….a lot more then I was in grant
 
isn’t a winning bet A good bet ?

I was certain I lost though …. I was very disappointed by his output ….. when he landed the spinning back fist to inverted triangle I dropped my beer lol

Im 99% sure on fiziev though …. As confident as one can be ….a lot more then I was in grant
The correct answer is bad bet. Davey bailed us out there with an improbable inverted triangle after dropping the first two rds. At -170 where you played him, it was a -EV play

these are teaching moments lol
 
isn’t a winning bet A good bet ?

I was certain I lost though …. I was very disappointed by his output ….. when he landed the spinning back fist to inverted triangle I dropped my beer lol

Im 99% sure on fiziev though …. As confident as one can be ….a lot more then I was in grant

That was a great bet. I wish I tailed you on that. I also wish I took your advice on Krylov. You were absolutely right, Spann ain’t all that.
 
The correct answer is bad bet. Davey bailed us out there with an improbable inverted triangle after dropping the first two rds. At -170 where you played him, it was a -EV play

these are teaching moments lol

yeah I can admit my read wasn’t as good as I thought ….. but it still cashed - another winning event .

When you gamble as much as we do - youre going to lose some along the way …. But you’re a hundred percent right in that I certainly shouldn’t have called him a “lock” .

I’m due for a bad weekend …. Too many good ones in a row

Maybe fiziev will fuck it up for me haha ….. but I truly can’t be more confident In gaethe Getting clocked here
 
That was a great bet. I wish I tailed you on that. I also wish I took your advice on Krylov. You were absolutely right, Spann ain’t all that.

A great bet? He was going to lose if the ref didn’t inexplicably stand them up due to Grant himself blatantly cheating. He was a -170 favorite on top of that.
 
A great bet? He was going to lose if the ref didn’t inexplicably stand them up due to Grant himself blatantly cheating. He was a -170 favorite on top of that.

-138 favorite at close ….. and yes he was on his way to Losing .

strange performance from grant …. Usually he’s high output

I would still bet him to win that fight again and again ….. if he actually let his strikes fly he should of finished him sooner

but yah I can take all the shit thrown at me …. I agree I shouldn’t of called him a lock


**** I’ve learnt from using that word …. But fiziev is as close as one can be …. Anyone who’s a bettor should jump on him before his line moves to -400
 
I like Roman's odds, but I don't know if I like his chances. Maybe worth a sprinkle, or just go with Marvin.

I really like Fiziev over Gaethje. I put down 6u on him already. I think this will be a textbook "pro vs amateur" showcase.

I put a small on Edwards. Edwards was doing fine in the last match when he actually just went for it. When he let his hands go, he was landing, and when he went for the grappling he was actually the one getting the takedown at one point. I think his issue was 100% mental, like he didn't believe he could beat Usman, so he just stood there dumbfounded for like 90% of that match. I think the head kick KO + the home crowd will help him realize that he can actually go for it this time and we will see that he's actually far more "up to the challenge" than last time. Additionally, Usman has been on the decline for some time, and that KO might be the proverbially nail in the coffin for him. His chin got him through a lot of fights previously (Burns for instance), and without that he becomes a much more beatable fighter.
 
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Money seems to be coming back in on morales who got as low as -105

Duncan hits like a truck but he’s green and morales is the more well rounded fighter. I was looking at morales last night trying to think what I was missing.

Is duncan going to put him on the back foot the whole fight? Going off memory morales should be the play here, but I’ll have to tape duncan
 
I think Justin is nearing the end and the difference in mileage is going to show up here. Like, if you make the analogy to a car, Justin has been taken off-roading through harsh terrain the majority of his career. He's taken insane amounts of damage, even in wins. Fisiev is a talented striker, and just WAY less shopworn. He didn't "lose" to Green either. He won a very close decision that could have gone either way. And Green is a hell of a boxer, or at least was a couple years ago when that fight took place.

It's possible it goes that way with Usman, but literally ONE head kick is what we're talking about. If that kick doesn't land with 1 minute to go in a lopsided fight up until that point, there would be ZERO talk of Usman being "almost done". He threw Leon around for most of 5 rounds. His cardio was on point, as was his wrestling. I guess we can say Leon will "fight better, with more confidence"...but I'm not sure how that catches him up in the gap in grappling ability. I think it's likely this is similar to a Nunes/Pena situation where afterwards everyone is saying "Ahhh why didn't I take advantage of that line??"
Usman said he was unconscious until he was in the ambulance. That's like 30 minutes. He's older and everyone talks about his knees, which never seemed to matter on fight night, but I'm not confident in either side. Fight could go either way and each side will say I told ya so.
 
I really like Fiziev over Gaethje. I put down 6u on him already. I think this will be a textbook "pro vs amateur" showcase.

I put a small on Edwards. Edwards was doing fine in the first match when he actually just went for it. When he let his hands go, he was landing, and when he went for the grappling he was actually the one getting the takedown at one point. I think his issue was 100% mental, like he didn't believe he could beat Usman, so he just stood there dumbfounded for like 90% of that match. I think the head kick KO + the home crowd will help him realize that he can actually go for it this time and we will see that he's actually far more "up to the challenge" than last time. Additionally, Usman has been on the decline for some time, and that KO might be the proverbially nail in the coffin for him. His chin got him through a lot of fights previously (Burns for instance), and without that he becomes a much more beatable fighter.
I agree on usman and edwards. Pretty much spot on with what I was thinking.

I love fiziev but I just can’t do it against gaethje. If he was like -155 I would on fiz
 
-138 favorite at close ….. and yes he was on his way to Losing .

strange performance from grant …. Usually he’s high output

I would still bet him to win that fight again and again ….. if he actually let his strikes fly he should of finished him sooner

but yah I can take all the shit thrown at me …. I agree I shouldn’t of called him a lock


**** I’ve learnt from using that word …. But fiziev is as close as one can be …. Anyone who’s a bettor should jump on him before his line moves to -400

I think Father Time is starting to catch up to Davey. I’d expect him to look even worse next time out.
 
Usman said he was unconscious until he was in the ambulance. That's like 30 minutes. He's older and everyone talks about his knees, which never seemed to matter on fight night, but I'm not confident in either side. Fight could go either way and each side will say I told ya so.

It was a brutal KO for sure. But honestly, I think sustained beatings actually age fighters worse than one shot KO's (even brutal ones like that). Hypothetically, if that headkick doesn't land and Usman wins a lopsided decision there and for some loony reason they ran it back again, Usman would be like -500. But because of one hail mary head kick his price is cut in half. Maybe I'll look back and see I was wrong...but I gotta bet Usman at these odds.
 
At least you got good odds on Justin. I'm seeing him under +200 now, +190 or so. I have Fisiev -213 and I'm comfortable backing him around 2-1. I think he's gonna look more like -350 to -400. But...I've been wrong before LOL!

Hey man when u coming back to Vegas I think I'm 1-4 in profit events since u left smh lol and I didn't lose a single bet when u were here not counting the no chance parlays though lol
 
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