UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

[Tebowned]

My thoughts pre-Usman vs Edwards 2:

Without looking into it much, Here's my thoughts:
- I like Leon Edwards as a dog. Hard to bet against Usman and I'm probably wrong but those odds are too hard to pass up.
His striking should be more refined and his grappling/ wrestling has improved since the first fight where he actually won a round.

wrestling shoes are actually barred under the unified ruleset.

just messing. I pretty much agree but don’t agree with the mma math that Nate and barberena rocked him so Usman will do it worse.

Nate and Bryan are true southpaws. Usman switches to southpaw but is not a true southpaw.
At pickem odds, it’d be [redacted] to not bet usman. Dominating champ + already holds a win over Leon.
I just think we’ll be able to get Edwards +300 or better by fight night. Hard to pass that up when I think Edwards has a path to victory. He’s the better striker imo, can do damage in the clinch, and his wrestling is decent.

Me pleading with the MMA gods mid-fight:

Edwards 5th round KO. Just trust me bro. I'll give you my cashapp for tips after haha

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-278-pbp-discussion.4251927/page-11

 

[lefontes]

Morales is much better than Duncan. Duncan is a brawler with power punch. Morales is well rounded much more experience.

 

[King-Ryan]

I'm looking at a Gunnar/Fizev parlay -123, Morales -105 and Maia +140 as my main plays then some sprinkles on Filho and Amirkhani

Thoughts!?

 

[Guld]

It's time!

They didn't touch gloves last time.
Already put a small on "No"

 

[Bakayoko]

It's time!
View attachment 974253
They didn't touch gloves last time.
Already put a small on "No"

I don't take notes on that,but Leon rarely touches gloves if I can remember?

 

[Thesnake101]

Morales is much better than Duncan. Duncan is a brawler with power punch. Morales is well rounded much more experience.

I'd be cautious of that since Morales does have a pretty bad tendency to put everything on each of his shots which makes him pretty predictable on the feet.

If he does succeed grounding Duncan then it's his fight to lose, but age might be catching up with Omar.

 

[mkess101]

I'd be cautious of that since Morales does have a pretty bad tendency to put everything on each of his shots which makes him pretty predictable on the feet.

If he does succeed grounding Duncan then it's his fight to lose, but age might be catching up with Omar.

I can't see him opting to brawl with a pretty one dimensional power puncher though. Esp coming off a KO loss.

You never know, but I have to think Omar looks to grapple early and often here...

 

[Thesnake101]

I can't see him opting to brawl with a pretty one dimensional power puncher though. Esp coming off a KO loss.

You never know, but I have to think Omar looks to grapple early and often here...

You'd think that, but he's not above getting dragged into a striking match. I guess it'll depend on whether Chris gets to him early or not.

Don't wanna go against my countryman by picking Duncan though, so I'll probably look at playing the over and FGTD at +180.

Omar isn't chinny, though him being 37 could soon change things, and he lets a lot of finishing opportunities pass him by so I think that stab is worth it.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I'm looking at a Gunnar/Fizev parlay -123, Morales -105 and Maia +140 as my main plays then some sprinkles on Filho and Amirkhani

Thoughts!?

I am sure you have looked into O'Neill/Maia and have your reasons for wanting to play Maia but imo she is very likely to lose and is the inferior fighter to O'Neill in nearly every relevant area.

O'Neill throws over 2x the volume of Maia and only absorbs back around half of the significant strikes she lands. Maia in contrast has a negative striking differential in that she absorbs more significant strikes than she lands. This is made worse by the fact Maia doesn't have knockout power so she isn't even likely to win moments with big shots.

O'Neill is the far better offensive grappler. She took down and finished her first three opponents in the UFC, one of whom (Lara Procopio) was a good grappler, and has shown the ability to do significant damage to her opponents once she grounds them. Maia in contrast has landed three takedowns in her 10 UFC fights and has only one credited submission attempt. She was taken down in relatively recent fights by Joanne Wood (Scottish kickboxer), Manon Fiorot (french kickboxer), and Chookagian (a good grappler); O'Neil has better takedowns than all of these fighters and will be able to take her down if she wants too which I anticipate she will.

I don't see how Maia wins unless O'Neill is fighting compromised.

 

[King-Ryan]

I am sure you have looked into O'Neill/Maia and have your reasons for wanting to play Maia but imo she is very likely to lose and is the inferior fighter to O'Neill in nearly every relevant area.

O'Neill throws over 2x the volume of Maia and only absorbs back around half of the significant strikes she lands. Maia in contrast has a negative striking differential in that she absorbs more significant strikes than she lands. This is made worse by the fact Maia doesn't have knockout power so she isn't even likely to win moments with big shots.

O'Neill is the far better offensive grappler. She took down and finished her first three opponents in the UFC, one of whom (Lara Procopio) was a good grappler, and has shown the ability to do significant damage to her opponents once she grounds them. Maia in contrast has landed three takedowns in her 10 UFC fights and has only one credited submission attempt. She was taken down in relatively recent fights by Joanne Wood (Scottish kickboxer), Manon Fiorot (french kickboxer), and Chookagian (a good grappler); O'Neil has better takedowns than all of these fighters and will be able to take her down if she wants too which I anticipate she will.

I don't see how Maia wins unless O'Neill is fighting compromised.

Thanks for the response. The problem I have with stats like like is look at the level of competition difference. Maia is fighting literal championships level fighters and going to decisions while having some sucess. All Casey's wins are against fighters who are at the bottom of the talent pool of the UFC.

Also Casey didn't even look to grapple at all in her last fight against Roxanne and the fight was very competitive. Maia gave Firot some problems in the stand up and even rocked her with a head kick.

Maia has decent muscle mass and strength I don't think Casey will be able to bully her like she has to lower tier opponents. I do worry that the UFC wants to push Casey and that could sway the judges in her favor. Also with the time off for Casey it's hard to know what she will look like coming in.

 

[Tebowned]

Weigh-in highlights or low lights:
Malcolm Gordon (129.5)* vs. Jake Hadley (126)
Main event back up: Colby Covington (170)

*Gordon missed weight, forfeits 30 percent of his purse

 

[SolarSeiko]

Finishing Phil Hawes is like getting a toy in your Happy Meal...

? Pretty sure Phil has a decent win loss ratio and he's not a complete bum. You make it sound like Phil Hawes is Phil Baroni. Is finishing hermanson a happy meal toy too?

 

[Post 2 Decision]

? Pretty sure Phil has a decent win loss ratio and he's not a complete bum. You make it sound like Phil Hawes is Phil Baroni. Is finishing hermanson a happy meal toy too?

His chin is a huge liability

 

[mkess101]

Was just chatting with PR about it, and there has to be some value on Miller/Hardy u2.5 at -110 or whatever. I was a little hesitant because even though Miller is a savage, she really doesn't rush anything. But PR made some good points. Hardy hasn't fought in 3 years. Has a history of finding a way out when things get tough. And has had concussion issues.

The more I think about it, the more likely I think it is that Miller gets Hardy down pretty early and just smashes her. Either TKO or (more likely probably) softens her up and finds a sub.

 

[JC615]

Does Macedo have any chance to win a decision? Even a shady one? Or any reasonable path to victory? I've admittedly never seen Miller fight but t seems like her losing would collapse a lot of casual people's parlays. I think I'll hedge with Miller Sub +162 and Dec +215 but maybe itd would be more wise in case she gets her back and pounds her out.

 

[StewDogg11]

Just saw an interview with Joanne Wood where she said this is the last fight on her contract and she wants to remain with the UFC. Might be some extra motivation as I doubt they’d resign her on a 4 fight losing streak.

 

[benebox]

Kinda tempted to bet Usman decision at +120. Fully expect Snoozeman 2.0 to show up and take 0 risks to a boring UD. It's one of those bets that you don't play then kick yourself after.

 

[mkess101]

Does Macedo have any chance to win a decision? Even a shady one? Or any reasonable path to victory? I've admittedly never seen Miller fight but t seems like her losing would collapse a lot of casual people's parlays. I think I'll hedge with Miller Sub +162 and Dec +215 but maybe itd would be more wise in case she gets her back and pounds her out.

I'd be really stunned if Miller loses even a round. I mean hell, it's not like I haven't been wrong before but she's just SO much more physical than anything we've seen from Macedo/Hardy in any of her previous fights. I don't know how she keeps Miller off her. She also looks to have actual grappling skills. And based on the TUF finale, cardio isn't an issue either. She was all over Brogan Walker in rd 3 of that one, dominating and with a ton of juice in the tank when she needed it to go for the finish (which she got with nasty elbows from mount). I just don't see a Barber/Modefarri scenario here at all where the hyped younger fighter is derailed by the vet.

I legit think Filho has a better shot to upset Mokaev than Hardy does of beating Miller.

 

[JC615]

I'd be really stunned if Miller loses even a round. I mean hell, it's not like I haven't been wrong before but she's just SO much more physical than anything we've seen from Macedo/Hardy in any of her previous fights. I don't know how she keeps Miller off her. She also looks to have actual grappling skills. And based on the TUF finale, cardio isn't an issue either. She was all over Brogan Walker in rd 3 of that one, dominating and with a ton of juice in the tank when she needed it to go for the finish (which she got with nasty elbows from mount). I just don't see a Barber/Modefarri scenario here at all where the hyped younger fighter is derailed by the vet.

I legit think Filho has a better shot to upset Mokaev than Hardy does of beating Miller.

I hear what you're saying, but as much as I can't stand Barber, she blew her knee out in that fight. 15 fights, some will probably be ending quickly so I definitely lean to your lean on this one. Maybe r2 sub but my instinct says she just subs her quickly in a minute or 2 and makes a super impressive debut.

 

[PuertoRican]

First fight starts at 9:30am PT / 12:30pm ET.

I guess there was a 30 minute bump from the original start time of 10am PT.