UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

Already parlayed Usman+Fisiev.

Usman dominated almost the entire fight last time (Leon hit a TD early, and obviously the head kick KO late...but the rest of the fight was Usman doing whatever he wanted with his grappling) so the head kick KO by Leon is giving us a discounted price on Usman here imo.


Fisiev is just the better striker in a fight that likely will have almost no grappling. Gaethje did reinvent himself prior to the Ferguson fight, and started caring about defense and was less interested in just wildly brawling. But then for a lot of the war with Chandler, he reverted to being the guy who just wanted to put on a show.

I'm comfortable paying this juice on both these guys.
 
Already parlayed Usman+Fisiev.

Usman dominated almost the entire fight last time (Leon hit a TD early, and obviously the head kick KO late...but the rest of the fight was Usman doing whatever he wanted with his grappling) so the head kick KO by Leon is giving us a discounted price on Usman here imo.


Fisiev is just the better striker in a fight that likely will have almost no grappling. Gaethje did reinvent himself prior to the Ferguson fight, and started caring about defense and was less interested in just wildly brawling. But then for a lot of the war with Chandler, he reverted to being the guy who just wanted to put on a show.

I'm comfortable paying this juice on both these guys.
Usman toes curled and involuntary feet shakes and tremors after his dome was caved in. He was already stiffening from Colby jabs, he's never the same after head kick. It's another ko for edwards.
 
Mokaev-Nelson-Usman looking solid parlay

I will definitely try dolidze
 
I have reservations about:

Jake Hadley: This guy was a favourite over Allan Nascimento, which says he's massively overrated. Low confidence in Malcolm Gordon, but he gave Mokaev fits, and Mokaev is way better than Hadley. At best, Hadley should be -150.
Casey O'Neill: I have to tape this, but initial assumption is Maia wins this.
Gunnar Nelson: Probably getting starched in 2023, Bryan been doing that veteran-beating tour and Gunnar not being an active fighter or a good striker could cost him
Rafael Fiziev: I believe in Fiziev, but Gaethje could easily clock him.
 
Usman toes curled and involuntary feet shakes and tremors after his dome was caved in. He was already stiffening from Colby jabs, he's never the same after head kick. It's another ko for edwards.

It was a helluva KO, but the fight was damn near over by the time it happened. Amazing kick, but Leon was getting grapplefucked badly the entire fight prior to it. I gotta back the guy that was ragdolling the other guy the whole fight and think he can do it again but avoid the meme KO this time.

Maybe I'm off. I was about as wrong as is possible on Gane/Jones, then pretty much called Merab/Yan perfectly. So...I'm 50% the last 2 ME's backing dogs. I like the favorite in this one.
 
I have reservations about:

Jake Hadley: This guy was a favourite over Allan Nascimento, which says he's massively overrated. Low confidence in Malcolm Gordon, but he gave Mokaev fits, and Mokaev is way better than Hadley. At best, Hadley should be -150.
Casey O'Neill: I have to tape this, but initial assumption is Maia wins this.
Gunnar Nelson: Probably getting starched in 2023, Bryan been doing that veteran-beating tour and Gunnar not being an active fighter or a good striker could cost him
Rafael Fiziev: I believe in Fiziev, but Gaethje could easily clock him.

Gunnar will stand with Barb for all of about 2 seconds imo.
 
Edwards at + money is a must play. Everything is stacked against Usman this time around

If Gaethje can’t get Fiziev down, he’s in deep shit. Fiziev’s striking is LEVELS above.

Dolidze at dog money is a must. Marvin is too basic and not dangerous anywhere. I don’t see a clear path for Marvin.

Gunnar vs Bryan is a complete mismatch. Gunnar + Shore is a solid parlay piece if you are into parlays.
 
Already parlayed Usman+Fisiev.

Usman dominated almost the entire fight last time (Leon hit a TD early, and obviously the head kick KO late...but the rest of the fight was Usman doing whatever he wanted with his grappling) so the head kick KO by Leon is giving us a discounted price on Usman here imo.


Fisiev is just the better striker in a fight that likely will have almost no grappling. Gaethje did reinvent himself prior to the Ferguson fight, and started caring about defense and was less interested in just wildly brawling. But then for a lot of the war with Chandler, he reverted to being the guy who just wanted to put on a show.

I'm comfortable paying this juice on both these guys.
I like neither of those guys at these odds, no way

garthje is too dangerous. We’ve seen fiz finished by a body shot and lose to Bobby green.

usman may be approaching done/retirement. Edwards will fight with confidence now, especially in front of the home crowd. I expect a much better showing from him this time out
 
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Bahahah … he’s the biggest lock in the card …. More confident in fiziev to smoke gaethe then I am in Mokaev (a -800 favorite)

Do you think Fiziev gets it done ITD? Also whats your thoughts on Dolidze? I think his scrambling ability will disrupt Marvin’s grappling
 
Do you think Fiziev gets it done ITD? Also whats your thoughts on Dolidze? I think his scrambling ability will disrupt Marvin’s grappling

yes I will be placing more on fiziev once the props drop ….. fiziev and miller inside the distance

I am a HUGE dolidze fan ….. Marvin might be a nightmare match for him though … Marvin decision or dolidze sub seems like the most likely scenarios to me .

marvin has a cement head - the guy can’t be knocked out ….. and his cardio is miles better then dolidzes …. So I could see a smart marvin keeping it standing and winning with jabs for 3 rounds .

surely he’s aware dolidze is a world champion grappler with next level skills …. So I don’t thinkMarvin will try to play his usual grind on top game .

and standing dolidze is pretty basic - he throws with enormous power but marvin has that cement head - so I gotta favor Marvin’s point fighting standup .

*** I will be rooting bigtime for dolidze thiugh - I’m a big fan !!!
 
I have reservations about:

Jake Hadley: This guy was a favourite over Allan Nascimento, which says he's massively overrated. Low confidence in Malcolm Gordon, but he gave Mokaev fits, and Mokaev is way better than Hadley. At best, Hadley should be -150.
Casey O'Neill: I have to tape this, but initial assumption is Maia wins this.
Gunnar Nelson: Probably getting starched in 2023, Bryan been doing that veteran-beating tour and Gunnar not being an active fighter or a good striker could cost him
Rafael Fiziev: I believe in Fiziev, but Gaethje could easily clock him.
Mokaev is better than Hadley, but I’d pick Hadley to beat him. The reason is that Mokaev doesn’t have great jiu-jitsu. By that, I mean that while he might have a few sneaky submissions, he isn’t positionally aware. Gordon gave him trouble because Mokaev kept giving him underhooks. Hadley might not have the wrestling of a Mokaev, but is better on the ground and should roll through Gordon, which is what the odds indicate, of course.
 
I like neither of those guys at these odds, no way

garthje is too dangerous. We’ve seen fiz finished by a body shot and lose to Bobby green.

usman may be approaching done/retirement. Edwards will fight with confidence now, especially in front of the home crowd. I expect a much better showing from him this time out

I think Justin is nearing the end and the difference in mileage is going to show up here. Like, if you make the analogy to a car, Justin has been taken off-roading through harsh terrain the majority of his career. He's taken insane amounts of damage, even in wins. Fisiev is a talented striker, and just WAY less shopworn. He didn't "lose" to Green either. He won a very close decision that could have gone either way. And Green is a hell of a boxer, or at least was a couple years ago when that fight took place.

It's possible it goes that way with Usman, but literally ONE head kick is what we're talking about. If that kick doesn't land with 1 minute to go in a lopsided fight up until that point, there would be ZERO talk of Usman being "almost done". He threw Leon around for most of 5 rounds. His cardio was on point, as was his wrestling. I guess we can say Leon will "fight better, with more confidence"...but I'm not sure how that catches him up in the gap in grappling ability. I think it's likely this is similar to a Nunes/Pena situation where afterwards everyone is saying "Ahhh why didn't I take advantage of that line??"
 
I think Justin is nearing the end and the difference in mileage is going to show up here. Like, if you make the analogy to a car, Justin has been taken off-roading through harsh terrain the majority of his career. He's taken insane amounts of damage, even in wins. Fisiev is a talented striker, and just WAY less shopworn. He didn't "lose" to Green either. He won a very close decision that could have gone either way. And Green is a hell of a boxer, or at least was a couple years ago when that fight took place.

It's possible it goes that way with Usman, but literally ONE head kick is what we're talking about. If that kick doesn't land with 1 minute to go in a lopsided fight up until that point, there would be ZERO talk of Usman being "almost done". He threw Leon around for most of 5 rounds. His cardio was on point, as was his wrestling. I guess we can say Leon will "fight better, with more confidence"...but I'm not sure how that catches him up in the gap in grappling ability. I think it's likely this is similar to a Nunes/Pena situation where afterwards everyone is saying "Ahhh why didn't I take advantage of that line??"
I see the angles but I think the numbers are wide. I played gaethje at +235. Nothing on Leon yet
 
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