UFC 270: N'Gannou vs. Gane

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It's crazy to me that for a long while, Gane dec was priced at +100 to +200 range, but now it's nearly +400 vs ngannu who has never been finished before and I don't think he's going to get abused at the level he did in his first stipe fight either. For that price I'm in for sure.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
It's crazy to me that for a long while, Gane dec was priced at +100 to +200 range, but now it's nearly +400 vs ngannu who has never been finished before and I don't think he's going to get abused at the level he did in his first stipe fight either. For that price I'm in for sure.
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You think Gane will try to use some grappling to tire Francis out? Or will Gane rely purely on his technical advantages and stay on the outside to try to pick Ngannou apart? I am thinking that in the first Stipe fight, a lot of the threat was taken away because Stipe gassed Francis out with grappling early on. If Gane chooses to stand on the outside the whole time, eventually I'd assume Ngannou will be forced to take some chances and rush at Gane to force him to engage in a firefight. If that happens, you'd have to think one of them gets taken out.

That said, Francis stood and stared at Black Beast for 15 minutes so you could very well be onto something.
 
Vierria-Sub
Valdez-KO
Olelink-Dec
Bothelo-Dec
Maddelena-KO
Nurmagedmov-Dec
Oliveria-Sub
Morlales-KO
Evolev-Dec
Moreno-Sub
Ngannou-KO
 
mkess101 said:
If Gane chooses to stand on the outside the whole time, eventually I'd assume Ngannou will be forced to take some chances and rush at Gane to force him to engage in a firefight. If that happens, you'd have to think one of them gets taken out.
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Not if, but when he stands on the outside the whole time. This is his thing, he's not a wrestler. And, coincidently, this is pretty much the only way to fight Ngannou - you can't wrestle him now: that window is shut down, look at how much better he's became at defending TDs! And you can't be close when you know the inherent danger of being inside punching distance with him. So why you just don't poke at him from the outside and score if that's your A game anyway?
mkess101 said:
I am thinking that in the first Stipe fight, a lot of the threat was taken away because Stipe gassed Francis out with grappling early on.
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Don't forget Francis was carring so much unnecessary muscle AND was swinging for the fences. That's not gonna happen here. He's a lot more composed now and slimmer.
mkess101 said:
If Gane chooses to stand on the outside the whole time, eventually I'd assume Ngannou will be forced to take some chances and rush at Gane to force him to engage in a firefight. If that happens, you'd have to think one of them gets taken out.
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Yeah, let's assume this happens and he charges Gane? Do we really believe a safety first fighter like Gane's gonna throw a counter in that scenario? Or is he just gonna take the one of two safer ways: 1 circle out or 2 clinch up. Yeah, I think we know the answer.
Gane's not winning this fight in any other way than decision. I mean, everything can happen, but this is by far the most likely outcome if he wins this fight. And if he loses there is very little chance he loses decision to a "sit and wait for the perfect devastating counter" Ngannou.
 
From -115 to -225 is a pretty big jump for someone as young as Kay Hansen going up against a fighter who will have some size on her.
 
Shelter said:
From -115 to -225 is a pretty big jump for someone as young as Kay Hansen going up against a fighter who will have some size on her.
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-225 is wide for wmma period with the kind of variance we see from goats
 
Whoever got Hardy at +120, well done. Oly chin is toast and Hardy is athletic enough to stay upright
 
Kyle Stephens said:
Not if, but when he stands on the outside the whole time. This is his thing, he's not a wrestler. And, coincidently, this is pretty much the only way to fight Ngannou - you can't wrestle him now: that window is shut down, look at how much better he's became at defending TDs! And you can't be close when you know the inherent danger of being inside punching distance with him. So why you just don't poke at him from the outside and score if that's your A game anyway?
Don't forget Francis was carring so much unnecessary muscle AND was swinging for the fences. That's not gonna happen here. He's a lot more composed now and slimmer.
Yeah, let's assume this happens and he charges Gane? Do we really believe a safety first fighter like Gane's gonna throw a counter in that scenario? Or is he just gonna take the one of two safer ways: 1 circle out or 2 clinch up. Yeah, I think we know the answer.
Gane's not winning this fight in any other way than decision. I mean, everything can happen, but this is by far the most likely outcome if he wins this fight. And if he loses there is very little chance he loses decision to a "sit and wait for the perfect devastating counter" Ngannou.
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Oh I don't think Ngannou is winning a decision, no way. And I do think that MOST of the time Gane will circle away. Clinching up may or may not be "safe", because Ngannou's power is at that crazy high end of the spectrum where even a short shot as the clinch breaks can end a fight. But it's still a fight, and at some point if a guy is coming at you wildly (see: the first minute of Ngannou/Rozenstruik) there's instincts that have you throw something back. And clinching inherently often happens in fights, even if neither fighter is specifically seeking it out.

I do still agree there's value in Gane decision, don't get me wrong. If he wins, I agree it's most likely. And I don't think he'd "wrestle" Ngannou in terms of using a bunch of energy trying to take him down. I do think (as you said) he might think he can push Francis against the cage if the fight goes past the early rounds, leaning on him and stealing minutes that way. If he were to really feel Francis tiring maybe he'd take him down but not before that.
 
mkess101 said:
Oh I don't think Ngannou is winning a decision, no way. And I do think that MOST of the time Gane will circle away. Clinching up may or may not be "safe", because Ngannou's power is at that crazy high end of the spectrum where even a short shot as the clinch breaks can end a fight. But it's still a fight, and at some point if a guy is coming at you wildly (see: the first minute of Ngannou/Rozenstruik) there's instincts that have you throw something back. And clinching inherently often happens in fights, even if neither fighter is specifically seeking it out.

I do still agree there's value in Gane decision, don't get me wrong. If he wins, I agree it's most likely. And I don't think he'd "wrestle" Ngannou in terms of using a bunch of energy trying to take him down. I do think (as you said) he might think he can push Francis against the cage if the fight goes past the early rounds, leaning on him and stealing minutes that way. If he were to really feel Francis tiring maybe he'd take him down but not before that.
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Just waiting for Gane Round 4 submission and Gane Round 5 submission. Should be +10,000 each. It’s possible if it goes past 3 rounds and Ngannou starts gassing. Still chasing those long, long odds.

Gane by decision has lots of value at +375.
 
Brockstar said:
Just waiting for Gane Round 4 submission and Gane Round 5 submission. Should be +10,000 each. It’s possible if it goes past 3 rounds and Ngannou starts gassing. Still chasing those long, long odds.

Gane by decision has lots of value at +375.
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I just looked at the odds and wanted to come in here and echo what everyone else has been saying. Gane by Dec at +375 is some insanely good odds for what I would consider the most probably outcome to this fight.
 
Gotta play devil's advocate on the Gane circle jerk here. Who has he beaten that gives us any indication that he is capable of stopping or winning 5 rounds against Ngannou? Are we relying solely on Ngannou's fight with Stipe because I am pretty sure he walked away from that fight with some lessons learned. Gane is an insanely sophisticated fighter, his striking is levels above anyone I can remember at heavy weight.. and yet somehow I think Ngannou just fucking blasts him. I dunno, staying away from it but at even money its hard to not bet on the proven champ commodity against someone who's best win is probably Volkov.
 
Kyle Stephens said:
Not if, but when he stands on the outside the whole time. This is his thing, he's not a wrestler. And, coincidently, this is pretty much the only way to fight Ngannou - you can't wrestle him now: that window is shut down, look at how much better he's became at defending TDs! And you can't be close when you know the inherent danger of being inside punching distance with him. So why you just don't poke at him from the outside and score if that's your A game anyway?
Don't forget Francis was carring so much unnecessary muscle AND was swinging for the fences. That's not gonna happen here. He's a lot more composed now and slimmer.
Yeah, let's assume this happens and he charges Gane? Do we really believe a safety first fighter like Gane's gonna throw a counter in that scenario? Or is he just gonna take the one of two safer ways: 1 circle out or 2 clinch up. Yeah, I think we know the answer.
Gane's not winning this fight in any other way than decision. I mean, everything can happen, but this is by far the most likely outcome if he wins this fight. And if he loses there is very little chance he loses decision to a "sit and wait for the perfect devastating counter" Ngannou.
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Gane fights every single opponent the same way. He fights them at kickboxing range and uses a combination of low kicks and body kicks to facilitate the buildup of lactic acid in the arms during the first round. He pushes his opponent up against the fence in the last minute of the first round, assuming his kicks have landed clean, and makes them carry his weight for as long as he can keep them there.

Gane then switches up what he likes to go for, but by the midpoint of the second round he will attempt to clinch with his opponent for a second time and really try to wear on his opponents arms. The goal of this is to take some of the power out of his opponents shots. Once he feels the threat (knockout power) of his opponent has dissipated thats when he starts getting aggressive with his hands .

There will definitely be some cage-wrestling initiated by Gane as its his most potent way of mitigating the risk his opponents present. So if Francis does have amazing wrestling now he could in theory take advantage of these opportunities to land a big shot.

Francis has not demonstrated he has the cardio to push through if Ganes succeeds at fatiguing him. Look at how quickly Derrick Lewis fell out of his fight with Gane there is nothing to suggest Francis would fair any better. Thats why Gane by TKO (+310) is priced lower currently than Gane by Decision (+375).

Regardless of which man wins a finish ITD seems to be how the fight is going to end.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Gane fights every single opponent the same way. He fights them at kickboxing range and uses a combination of low kicks and body kicks to facilitate the buildup of lactic acid in the arms during the first round. He pushes his opponent up against the fence in the last minute of the first round, assuming his kicks have landed clean, and makes them carry his weight for as long as he can keep them there.

Gane then switches up what he likes to go for, but by the midpoint of the second round he will attempt to clinch with his opponent for a second time and really try to wear on his opponents arms. The goal of this is to take some of the power out of his opponents shots. Once he feels the threat (knockout power) of his opponent has dissipated thats when he starts getting aggressive with his hands .

There will definitely be some cage-wrestling initiated by Gane as its his most potent way of mitigating the risk his opponents present. So if Francis does have amazing wrestling now he could in theory take advantage of these opportunities to land a big shot.

Francis has not demonstrated he has the cardio to push through if Ganes succeeds at fatiguing him. Look at how quickly Derrick Lewis fell out of his fight with Gane there is nothing to suggest Francis would fair any better. Thats why Gane by TKO (+310) is priced lower currently than Gane by Decision (+375).

Regardless of which man wins a finish ITD seems to be how the fight is going to end.
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Excellent analysis.

Gane imposing his will via kickboxing and clinching is starting to loom large on my prediction horizon.
 
TrueAscension said:
Gotta play devil's advocate on the Gane circle jerk here. Who has he beaten that gives us any indication that he is capable of stopping or winning 5 rounds against Ngannou? Are we relying solely on Ngannou's fight with Stipe because I am pretty sure he walked away from that fight with some lessons learned. Gane is an insanely sophisticated fighter, his striking is levels above anyone I can remember at heavy weight.. and yet somehow I think Ngannou just fucking blasts him. I dunno, staying away from it but at even money its hard to not bet on the proven champ commodity against someone who's best win is probably Volkov.
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IIRC, Stipe landed some really hard shots on Ngannou in their first fight and Frances just ate them with no issues at all. Even when tired, his chin seems rock solid. The more I dig into it, the more I think it's either Ngannou with another blistering KO or Gane decision. I just don't see it ending another way.
 
TrueAscension said:
Gotta play devil's advocate on the Gane circle jerk here. Who has he beaten that gives us any indication that he is capable of stopping or winning 5 rounds against Ngannou? Are we relying solely on Ngannou's fight with Stipe because I am pretty sure he walked away from that fight with some lessons learned. Gane is an insanely sophisticated fighter, his striking is levels above anyone I can remember at heavy weight.. and yet somehow I think Ngannou just fucking blasts him. I dunno, staying away from it but at even money its hard to not bet on the proven champ commodity against someone who's best win is probably Volkov.
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Outside of Stipe who has Francis beaten?
He lost a decision to Derrek Lewis.

They pretty much beaten the same guys.
 
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