UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira

[GoldenWolf87]

***Khamzat Chimaev (171) vs. Li Jingliang (171)
*Damir Ismagulov (163.5) vs. Magomed Mustafaev (156)

* Ismagulov was 7.5 pounds over the lightweight limit and did not cut any more weight; his fight was canceled
*** Chimaev was half a pound over the welterweight limit on his first attempt; he was given an extra hour and made weight on his second try

I forget how cory sandhagen looks bigger there he looks good. So does the Leech!

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

If chimaev has never been to decision and his ml is -600, why aren’t bettors hitting fdngtd or his itd line?

Parlays because math is hard. His tko line at +150 is a gift we'll never see again if he smashes jingliang. He literally picks people up and carries them across the cage. Rd1 +150 for him. Jingliang itd at +700.

 

[Kazda1]

I probably should go back and read but decided to give an opinion as well as ask some of the Jandiroba/ Ribas fight. Initially I was thinking Ribas by decision is the play, but after watching all of her UFC fights all over from then until now, I feel she's been the product of favorable matchmaking. Pretty girl, lovable personality, athletic for a girl - but the technical side is definitely missing in fights where she's not in top control. She doesn't really offer much on the feet, which is where she ran into trouble with Rodriguez. She's out of position most of the time which led to someone accurate enough to take advantage of that problem. Obviously the odds were too far apart there, but I kind of wonder if the same thing is happening here.

Jandiroba wasn't really much of a striker or at least not a good one until coming into her last fight where you could see a clear improvement of that step in 1-2. Her jab had some pop, but I'm concerned that one of the main issues she's looked to have is hardly any volume. She's got the tools to win, but I wonder if in the judges eyes that Ribas darting in and out (along with missing punches) makes her look like the busier fighter.

All in all, for some reason I think this fight goes to the cards, and is unlikely to see much time on the ground. Jandiroba seems not to be taking it there on purpose for whatever reason and it's not like Ribas does intentionally that much either. I know the argument is that Dern beat Jandiroba on the feet, but let's be real - Jandiroba had no jab and Dern I feel won that fight more on walking forward aggression more so than landing (or at least in my eyes she did).

I guess I'm really trying to justify a +250 Jandiroba by decision play. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I probably should go back and read but decided to give an opinion as well as ask some of the Jandiroba/ Ribas fight. Initially I was thinking Ribas by decision is the play, but after watching all of her UFC fights all over from then until now, I feel she's been the product of favorable matchmaking. Pretty girl, lovable personality, athletic for a girl - but the technical side is definitely missing in fights where she's not in top control. She doesn't really offer much on the feet, which is where she ran into trouble with Rodriguez. She's out of position most of the time which led to someone accurate enough to take advantage of that problem. Obviously the odds were too far apart there, but I kind of wonder if the same thing is happening here.

Jandiroba wasn't really much of a striker or at least not a good one until coming into her last fight where you could see a clear improvement of that step in 1-2. Her jab had some pop, but I'm concerned that one of the main issues she's looked to have is hardly any volume. She's got the tools to win, but I wonder if in the judges eyes that Ribas darting in and out (along with missing punches) makes her look like the busier fighter.

All in all, for some reason I think this fight goes to the cards, and is unlikely to see much time on the ground. Jandiroba seems not to be taking it there on purpose for whatever reason and it's not like Ribas does intentionally that much either. I know the argument is that Dern beat Jandiroba on the feet, but let's be real - Jandiroba had no jab and Dern I feel won that fight more on walking forward aggression more so than landing (or at least in my eyes she did).

I guess I'm really trying to justify a +250 Jandiroba by decision play. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

You don’t have to justify that play on a wmma 50/50 fight

that’s a no brainer

I played it at +225

just make sure you sprinkle the ml too

 

[Monster Meat]

I probably should go back and read but decided to give an opinion as well as ask some of the Jandiroba/ Ribas fight. Initially I was thinking Ribas by decision is the play, but after watching all of her UFC fights all over from then until now, I feel she's been the product of favorable matchmaking. Pretty girl, lovable personality, athletic for a girl - but the technical side is definitely missing in fights where she's not in top control. She doesn't really offer much on the feet, which is where she ran into trouble with Rodriguez. She's out of position most of the time which led to someone accurate enough to take advantage of that problem. Obviously the odds were too far apart there, but I kind of wonder if the same thing is happening here.

Jandiroba wasn't really much of a striker or at least not a good one until coming into her last fight where you could see a clear improvement of that step in 1-2. Her jab had some pop, but I'm concerned that one of the main issues she's looked to have is hardly any volume. She's got the tools to win, but I wonder if in the judges eyes that Ribas darting in and out (along with missing punches) makes her look like the busier fighter.

All in all, for some reason I think this fight goes to the cards, and is unlikely to see much time on the ground. Jandiroba seems not to be taking it there on purpose for whatever reason and it's not like Ribas does intentionally that much either. I know the argument is that Dern beat Jandiroba on the feet, but let's be real - Jandiroba had no jab and Dern I feel won that fight more on walking forward aggression more so than landing (or at least in my eyes she did).

I guess I'm really trying to justify a +250 Jandiroba by decision play. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

agree on that dec line too

 

[lefontes]

Love many dogs on this card:
1u Kopilov (2 greens imo and Kapilov os better on the feet)
1u Volkan (if all stand os 50 50)
0.5u Li (Chimaev covid problems)
0.5 Hooker (shot on him)

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Agree, way too much juice to pay on Khamzat. And that's coming from me, a guy who thinks he's going to take Li down and smash him. I'm actually somewhat confident in it. And if Khamzat was -250ish, even maybe -300 I think a play on him could be warranted. But people betting him to -550, -600...no. I said this before, but the inherent variance of MMA in general (forget that Li does have power and decent boxing and thus a ptv) says that paying that kind of juice should VERY rarely be done.

True but this a card with a lot of major line gaps. Khamzat could be added to a parley. Usually I stay away from heavy favourite parleys but this card is just too tempting

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Zaleski sub +1200 seems value af

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Zaleski sub +1200 seems value af

i'm on the sub too as well as ITD, this debutant is over his head here absurd step up in competition ezds is going to kill him.

 

[PuertoRican]

sup fellas?

I just checked in to my room at the Park MGM in Vegas. My friend had cancel last minute, so if you're in Vegas and need a place to crash and/or want to watch the fights with me tomorrow morning, send me a PM. (I won't charge you for the room if you need a place to stay, since it's a comped room.)

 

[Deleted member 510399]

sup fellas?

I just checked in to my room at the Park MGM in Vegas. My friend had cancel last minute, so if you're in Vegas and need a place to crash and/or want to watch the fights with me tomorrow morning, send me a PM. (I won't charge you for the room if you need a place to stay, since it's a comped room.)

Have you been to Circa yet?

Being able to watch sports on a huge TV while at the pool seems pretty cool.

I haven't been to Vegas since it opened, I'll end up going back sometime early next year.

 

[PuertoRican]

Have you been to Circa yet?

Being able to watch sports on a huge TV while at the pool seems pretty cool.

I haven't been to Vegas since it opened, I'll end up going back sometime early next year.

Yep. I usually stay Downtown, but decided to stay on The Strip this time so I can check out the $5 craps at the OYO Hotel.

I go to Vegas often. Just depends on what's going on at work, or if I am traveling abroad.

 

[mkess101]

True but this a card with a lot of major line gaps. Khamzat could be added to a parley. Usually I stay away from heavy favourite parleys but this card is just too tempting

How much value is he adding to a parlay?

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

How much value is he adding to a parlay?

Not an incredible value but it's near a lock IMO and this card has 5/6 legs you could feel confident grouping. But all the favourites on the main card gets you roughly a +400 line

 

[mkess101]

Not an incredible value but it's near a lock IMO and this card has 5/6 legs you could feel confident grouping. But all the favourites on the main card gets you roughly a +400 line

Take out the -600 and it's probably +380 though LOL. That steep a line adds risk for very little reward.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Take out the -600 and it's probably +380 though LOL. That steep a line adds risk for very little reward.

Dropped it from +396 to +330

Seems like a good add to me

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Dropped it from +396 to +330

Seems like a good add to me

You'll learn soon enough young grasshopper, it may hit this time, but it's a -ev play in the long run.

Do I do it every so often still? Yeah I parlayed Kayla Harrison recently itd -1400 with a +175 to get +195.

Does khamzat win though? Probably. Will he look like a -600? Possibly. But pre fight, I think the odds are too steep and there's too many question marks to throw him in a parlay.

I think Duraev is a safer parlay piece that pays more.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

I probably should go back and read but decided to give an opinion as well as ask some of the Jandiroba/ Ribas fight. Initially I was thinking Ribas by decision is the play, but after watching all of her UFC fights all over from then until now, I feel she's been the product of favorable matchmaking. Pretty girl, lovable personality, athletic for a girl - but the technical side is definitely missing in fights where she's not in top control. She doesn't really offer much on the feet, which is where she ran into trouble with Rodriguez. She's out of position most of the time which led to someone accurate enough to take advantage of that problem. Obviously the odds were too far apart there, but I kind of wonder if the same thing is happening here.

Jandiroba wasn't really much of a striker or at least not a good one until coming into her last fight where you could see a clear improvement of that step in 1-2. Her jab had some pop, but I'm concerned that one of the main issues she's looked to have is hardly any volume. She's got the tools to win, but I wonder if in the judges eyes that Ribas darting in and out (along with missing punches) makes her look like the busier fighter.

All in all, for some reason I think this fight goes to the cards, and is unlikely to see much time on the ground. Jandiroba seems not to be taking it there on purpose for whatever reason and it's not like Ribas does intentionally that much either. I know the argument is that Dern beat Jandiroba on the feet, but let's be real - Jandiroba had no jab and Dern I feel won that fight more on walking forward aggression more so than landing (or at least in my eyes she did).

I guess I'm really trying to justify a +250 Jandiroba by decision play. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

My thoughts as someone who was high on Dern until Ribas soundly beat her in all facets of the game is that Ribas SHOULD be the favorite here and a little bit of the juice does come into the fact that she is popular. Line movement is weird in this fight as well with a lot of back and forth action and Ribas chin looked very sus against marina… I know very little of Jandiroba but since she is brazillian as well she should be familiar with Ribas and know that swarming for her weak chin is a legit tactic as she is a black belt in BJJ as well (didn’t get subbed by Dern so that is going to indicate that Ribas won’t be able to man handle her on the ground where she has the supposed grappling advantage, but once the fight hits the ground it will probably be jandiroba who will surprise people cuz Ribas ground game is nothing special from what I have seen).

My bet would be the draw or fight goes to split decision.

 

[Bakayoko]

Yea I think it happens more often than not. Dont know about lock though, not my kind of play

Yeah,my wrong choice of words,I meant does it have value.I see some but not much,will ad to some cheaper parlays.
I like the Ulanbekov fight to go the distance,Ulanbekov should roll here but Nascimento is tough,both overs and Ulanbekov DEC for me.
I like the over in the Zubeira and the Murphy fight too.
I'm taking Khazmzat over 1,5 for 1,90 too,I'm not buying that Khamzat smash stuff,if Philips lasted for 6 minutes,Li with heart and chin should for round and a half.
Changed my mind on the ME,fought Glover was a solid dog,but after some tape and thinking,it's a really tough matchup for him and Jan odds are better then for exemple Makachev or Khazmzat lines,I'll take Jan.
Also taking Duraev and Dos Santos as favorites.

 

[Al Tair]

I probably should go back and read but decided to give an opinion as well as ask some of the Jandiroba/ Ribas fight. Initially I was thinking Ribas by decision is the play, but after watching all of her UFC fights all over from then until now, I feel she's been the product of favorable matchmaking. Pretty girl, lovable personality, athletic for a girl - but the technical side is definitely missing in fights where she's not in top control. She doesn't really offer much on the feet, which is where she ran into trouble with Rodriguez. She's out of position most of the time which led to someone accurate enough to take advantage of that problem. Obviously the odds were too far apart there, but I kind of wonder if the same thing is happening here.

Jandiroba wasn't really much of a striker or at least not a good one until coming into her last fight where you could see a clear improvement of that step in 1-2. Her jab had some pop, but I'm concerned that one of the main issues she's looked to have is hardly any volume. She's got the tools to win, but I wonder if in the judges eyes that Ribas darting in and out (along with missing punches) makes her look like the busier fighter.

All in all, for some reason I think this fight goes to the cards, and is unlikely to see much time on the ground. Jandiroba seems not to be taking it there on purpose for whatever reason and it's not like Ribas does intentionally that much either. I know the argument is that Dern beat Jandiroba on the feet, but let's be real - Jandiroba had no jab and Dern I feel won that fight more on walking forward aggression more so than landing (or at least in my eyes she did).

I guess I'm really trying to justify a +250 Jandiroba by decision play. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Ribas will 30-27 Jandiroba, this one is a lock for me.

Jandiroba throws looping punches and haymakers similar to Dern against Ribas. Ribas will see those shots coming and piece her up. Jandiroba has struggled against oponnents where she didn't have a lopsided advantage in height and reach.
Ribas footwork and striking is pretty clean, she did super well against a dangerous oponnent in Marina Rodriguez. I am confident Ribas will keep this standing up and steal a decision.