UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira

JudoThrowFiasco said:
Dropped it from +396 to +330

Seems like a good add to me
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I was kinda being glib. If you think that's a value add, then yeah go with your read. I've already said I think Khamzat smashes Li, but no way would I pay that massive juice on him.
 
Al Tair said:
Ribas will 30-27 Jandiroba, this one is a lock for me.

Jandiroba throws looping punches and haymakers similar to Dern against Ribas. Ribas will see those shots coming and piece her up. Jandiroba has struggled against oponnents where she didn't have a lopsided advantage in height and reach.
Ribas footwork and striking is pretty clean, she did super well against a dangerous oponnent in Marina Rodriguez. I am confident Ribas will keep this standing up and steal a decision.
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It looked like to me she cleaned up a lot of the looping punches in her last fight. There were a couple still there, particularly when her opponent got close. The biggest takeaway I saw was Ribas could be hit at a distance by her opponents rights more than anything - especially because she's not exactly the cleanest puncher herself. Maybe someone like Rodriguez was just talented enough to create the angles to counter right Ribas at the right times to get the KO and Jandiroba won't? Maybe I should pass here.....I'm not totally sold Jandiroba is able to create those same opportunities Rodriguez did.
 
Kazda1 said:
It looked like to me she cleaned up a lot of the looping punches in her last fight. There were a couple still there, particularly when her opponent got close. The biggest takeaway I saw was Ribas could be hit at a distance by her opponents rights more than anything - especially because she's not exactly the cleanest puncher herself. Maybe someone like Rodriguez was just talented enough to create the angles to counter right Ribas at the right times to get the KO and Jandiroba won't? Maybe I should pass here.....I'm not totally sold Jandiroba is able to create those same opportunities Rodriguez did.
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I also think Jandiroba is a bit better grappler than Ribas, and especially I think the more likely to end up with top position if it goes to the mat. (Meaning I think she's the one more likely to pursue a TD or try to drag Ribas down). I don't the grappling edge is huge, but it's enough to where I think she can steal at least one round because of it (which in a fight this close may well determine it). Jandiroba avoided the mat like the plague vs Dern, but that's Dern. No woman on earth wants to be on the ground with her. In this fight, I can see Virna trying to get Ribas down so she can control her from top position.

I don't think there's massive value here on Jandiroba but I do think this is at worst 50/50 so at + odds it's worth a small stab.

Edit: I thought Virna was more like +115, but she's +135 or so. More value than I thought then.
 
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mkess101 said:
I also think Jandiroba is a bit better grappler than Ribas, and especially I think the more likely to end up with top position if it goes to the mat. (Meaning I think she's the one more likely to pursue a TD or try to drag Ribas down). I don't the grappling edge is huge, but it's enough to where I think she can steal at least one round because of it (which in a fight this close may well determine it). Jandiroba avoided the mat like the plague vs Dern, but that's Dern. No woman on earth wants to be on the ground with her. In this fight, I can see Virna trying to get Ribas down so she can control her from top position.

I don't think there's massive value here on Jandiroba but I do think this is at worst 50/50 so at + odds it's worth a small stab.

Edit: I thought Virna was more like +115, but she's +135 or so. More value than I thought then.
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It's still not enough value there in a 50/50 coin flip where I was already leaning Ribas anyway but just happened to have fresh eyes to the fact that she's not as good as advertised along with the fact her lines are juiced on more than her fighting ability. I would have to get up and get dressed and drive to go play this bet. I cashed a few Pennington by decision bets a few weeks ago I believe for the same price range. The difference being Pennington was more guaranteed the win in that situation. This isn't quite the same to me. I guess I'll sit home in my draws and finish handicapping for tomorrow's games.
 
Kazda1 said:
It's still not enough value there in a 50/50 coin flip where I was already leaning Ribas anyway but just happened to have fresh eyes to the fact that she's not as good as advertised along with the fact her lines are juiced on more than her fighting ability. I would have to get up and get dressed and drive to go play this bet. I cashed a few Pennington by decision bets a few weeks ago I believe for the same price range. The difference being Pennington was more guaranteed the win in that situation. This isn't quite the same to me. I guess I'll sit home in my draws and finish handicapping for tomorrow's games.
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Yeah if you don't see real value and have to go drive to place the bet...different story. +135 in a coin toss fight is solid to me, but that's also with having to hit a couple buttons on a keyboard.
 
Ribas probably hits -200 or deeper by fight time, Virna is the side. Ribas can't strike, she is rally bad, and hasn't been training at ATT for this fight.
 
2020Tracked said:
Ribas probably hits -200 or deeper by fight time, Virna is the side. Ribas can't strike, she is rally bad, and hasn't been training at ATT for this fight.
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How are you so sure? Not that I'm trying to say you can't be, I'm curious. Make it quick! I'm about 2 minutes from calling it a total pass today lol.
 
rev0lver said:
Anything can still happen though and that's why I'd never call prop bets a lock. Yahya still knows how to throw a punch. You can get a TKO via injury. And you have shit like GDR getting a submission.
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I hit Aljo via KO,TKO, DQ in rd 4 against Yan. I envisioned strikes from the full mount.
 
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