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UFC 253: Adesanya v Costa

Wow. I gota do a little more tape on this Danilo Marques guy. But I really think 3 losses in a row, absolutely terrible, got beat by 2 not so good fighters and 1 decent fighter, gas tank for shit, no reason to bet him Khadis Ibragimov might be an absolute steal here at -170
Gota take a nice look at the under also, but yea it pains me to say I might be looking to max bet this guy for his first UFC win. Add inside the distance also. Unless im missing something?? Could hedge w Marques sub but looking all in on Ibragimov
 
Pre-tape I’m on Camur ML and round 1/KO, Adesanya decision and rounds 4/5. Also will play Costa KO and round 1.

I also got Reyes over Jan

I’m taking Royval over Kai. Need to tape the rest.
 
Pre-tape I've got
Knight vs Camur - Camur, DNGT
Kara France vs Royval - Kara France
Vieria vs Renau - Vieira
Reyes vs Blachowicz - Blachowicz (50/50)
Adesanya vs Costa - Adesanya, Over.25
Ill begin taping tomorrow
 
Knight seems pretty durable and it looks like to me that Camur actually does not have a lot of power in his hands, he hit Ledet clean a couple of times but Ledet wasn't even fazed. I would urge people not to bet Camur as a favourite, he is just too green imo.
 
anyone who's thinking of betting Khadis/Marques:

  • why hasn't marques fought in 2 years?
  • is there any tape of him recently on IG or anything? He looks super green in his earlier fights
  • is 2 months enough time for Khadis chin to recuperate from that nasty KO?
just from some preliminary tape, Khadis looks like the more dangerous fighter. That marcio telles punch that KO'd Marques didn't seem like the hardest punch either. Marques has been fighting cans as well.

Safest bet for me in this order:

  • it DNGTD
  • Under 1.5R
  • Khadis by KO
 
piglord said:
i think vieira is a hideous match-up for eubanks, surprised to see money going the other way.
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Im 80% sure the fight is going to the distance. Vieira should coast to a comfortable decision, I just have no respect for anyone who has lost to Bethe.
 
dont know but from what i seen so far William Knight sure seems like has the Ko Power for the first round or second. Looks interesting for now i need to do more tape study.
 
Why is Eubanks a underdog again? she was great the other week. Eubank should have being the favorite this week.
 
Vitor Apologist said:
This will deadass be my last post here until probably next year, it will be a while. This place reminds me of the reddit sportsbook subreddit where there really is only a handful of people in here who know what they’re talking about (except that there’s probably way more sharper people compared to hive mind reddit) a whole lot of arguing/rambling and not enough helping/contribution. I know I ramble like a retard sometimes and that was especially a result of my tilting/ bad habits messing me up...

I’ve been at this gambling shit for about 1.5 years and I’m luckily up due to some lucky parlaying. Gambling has caused me a lot of stress and I think it’s at the point for me where the stress overrides the fun. It’s hard to explain, but sometimes I wish I could go back to the good old days when I couldn’t even interpret odds. Now, whenever I hear a match up I wanna know how I would like to bet it or speculate what the odds are gonna be instead of just looking forward to to the fight. Also, as I mentioned earlier yeah I’m really starting to see why parlaying is bad as I pretty much only parlay. Long story short, don’t parlay because it’s literally detrimental to your bankroll and handicapping skills.

Last thing before I go, bet the house on TKZ. I mean this.
Click to expand...

Sorry to hear that you're leaving man. Get some help if you need it. Just take a break. God bless you bud.
 
Vitor Apologist said:
This will deadass be my last post here until probably next year, it will be a while. This place reminds me of the reddit sportsbook subreddit where there really is only a handful of people in here who know what they’re talking about (except that there’s probably way more sharper people compared to hive mind reddit) a whole lot of arguing/rambling and not enough helping/contribution. I know I ramble like a retard sometimes and that was especially a result of my tilting/ bad habits messing me up...

I’ve been at this gambling shit for about 1.5 years and I’m luckily up due to some lucky parlaying. Gambling has caused me a lot of stress and I think it’s at the point for me where the stress overrides the fun. It’s hard to explain, but sometimes I wish I could go back to the good old days when I couldn’t even interpret odds. Now, whenever I hear a match up I wanna know how I would like to bet it or speculate what the odds are gonna be instead of just looking forward to to the fight. Also, as I mentioned earlier yeah I’m really starting to see why parlaying is bad as I pretty much only parlay. Long story short, don’t parlay because it’s literally detrimental to your bankroll and handicapping skills.

Last thing before I go, bet the house on TKZ. I mean this.
Click to expand...

these are stressful times my man. I've been using a meditation app (i think its called balance?) for like 20 minutes a day and its been helping me a lot just clear my mind and reduce some stress. A couple times a week I go metal detecting just to unplug. See if you can stop receiving any sports notifications from ESPN or however you get it, so its out of sight out of mind and get a plugin on your browser to block you from going on the sportsbooks and sherdog or whatever for 2 weeks
 
Should Jeff Hughes be this big of a dog against espino? Espino coming back after 2 years off. I dont remember Espino wrestling being exactly mind blowing
 
Going to watch more tape this week, but after winning more than a £1000 (£1000 investment) off a parlay of Silva, Chimaev and Colby, I feel good going into this next card.

Here is a parlay I have pre-tape (but could very well change later on):

1) Izzy

2) Reyes (?)

3) Riddell

Right now, I'm most confident about Izzy and Riddell, but will have to watch a lot more tape on Reyes and Jan.
 
Last edited:
Vitor Apologist said:
This will deadass be my last post here until probably next year, it will be a while. This place reminds me of the reddit sportsbook subreddit where there really is only a handful of people in here who know what they’re talking about (except that there’s probably way more sharper people compared to hive mind reddit) a whole lot of arguing/rambling and not enough helping/contribution. I know I ramble like a retard sometimes and that was especially a result of my tilting/ bad habits messing me up...

I’ve been at this gambling shit for about 1.5 years and I’m luckily up due to some lucky parlaying. Gambling has caused me a lot of stress and I think it’s at the point for me where the stress overrides the fun. It’s hard to explain, but sometimes I wish I could go back to the good old days when I couldn’t even interpret odds. Now, whenever I hear a match up I wanna know how I would like to bet it or speculate what the odds are gonna be instead of just looking forward to to the fight. Also, as I mentioned earlier yeah I’m really starting to see why parlaying is bad as I pretty much only parlay. Long story short, don’t parlay because it’s literally detrimental to your bankroll and handicapping skills.

Last thing before I go, bet the house on TKZ. I mean this.
Click to expand...

Dial it back. Just bet enough to make it fun for awhile. The same thing happened to me. I was a mess. I would lose sleep leading up to a big fight because of the amount I was betting.

I just bet enough to make it a bit more fun at this point.
 
loller90278 said:
these are stressful times my man. I've been using a meditation app (i think its called balance?) for like 20 minutes a day and its been helping me a lot just clear my mind and reduce some stress. A couple times a week I go metal detecting just to unplug. See if you can stop receiving any sports notifications from ESPN or however you get it, so its out of sight out of mind and get a plugin on your browser to block you from going on the sportsbooks and sherdog or whatever for 2 weeks
Click to expand...

Yep. 2020 sucks balls.
 
Vitor Apologist said:
This will deadass be my last post here until probably next year, it will be a while. This place reminds me of the reddit sportsbook subreddit where there really is only a handful of people in here who know what they’re talking about (except that there’s probably way more sharper people compared to hive mind reddit) a whole lot of arguing/rambling and not enough helping/contribution. I know I ramble like a retard sometimes and that was especially a result of my tilting/ bad habits messing me up...

I’ve been at this gambling shit for about 1.5 years and I’m luckily up due to some lucky parlaying. Gambling has caused me a lot of stress and I think it’s at the point for me where the stress overrides the fun. It’s hard to explain, but sometimes I wish I could go back to the good old days when I couldn’t even interpret odds. Now, whenever I hear a match up I wanna know how I would like to bet it or speculate what the odds are gonna be instead of just looking forward to to the fight. Also, as I mentioned earlier yeah I’m really starting to see why parlaying is bad as I pretty much only parlay. Long story short, don’t parlay because it’s literally detrimental to your bankroll and handicapping skills.

Last thing before I go, bet the house on TKZ. I mean this.
Click to expand...
Wish you all the best man :).

Whilst I do gamble myself from time to time, I do understand that it can also be dangerous and very toxic for some people, so do what you need to do to feel better again dude.
 
I’m leaning even more towards Royval over Kai after watching some tape. Royval is similar, stylistically to Brandon Moreno as far as his striking and movement is concerned.

Already. Placed 1u on him at +195
 
carolinagrapple said:
Should Jeff Hughes be this big of a dog against espino? Espino coming back after 2 years off. I dont remember Espino wrestling being exactly mind blowing
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a long injury layoff for espino at nearly 40. he's a good grappler, but he rarely leaves round one and has been smashing lower tier opponents or guys with zero tdd.

hughes has looked bad in the ufc but he's the more technical boxer and his tdd and get up game look serviceable. i believe he has a high school wrestling background.

i'm taking a small shot on the underdog at +240 with full knowledge it's going to be infuriating if the bet loses.
 
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