UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 Discussion

[loller90278]

i'm waiting on weigh ins to make my final determination but i'm leaning towards a Stipe finish.

If DC looks like he did last fight, i'll put some money down on Stipe -- who looks great from the embedded videos

 

[Monster Meat]

I think he meant o1.5? Odds are a bit better on 5d right now anyway, maybe worth a look.
o2.5 is -125
o1.5 is -225

Not terrible.

ah ok yea I like the over 2.5. I just found a 1.5 -250 obviously like that for some parlay material.

 

[ill800]

Couple things here...

It's stylistically not a great matchup for Merab. His striking is not good, he's a TD machine with a nonstop motor. But Dodson is almost impossible to hold down, and cardio shouldn't be an issue in a 3 round fight. Plus Dodson has power so if Merab's striking defense is as bad as it's been at various times, he might eat a big shot and get finished.

The other (and probably more important) thing is...if you think the line is "right", why would you ever consider a 4u play??? If the line is right, take a pass. Or put a tiny bet on a prop or something if you just want action. Making a big play on a line where you think the books have it correct? There's no reason to do that, put your money in spots where you think the line is way off.

Stop making so much sense breh

 

[ill800]

Stipe would be a live bet only for me. Dc has punked him early in fights and you’re essentially betting on dc not having the cardio to go into the championship rounds.

if stipe wants to go the body early I think dc makes him pay for it. He didn’t have an answer for it last fight and I’m sure he will now

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Some of these GTD lines feel kind of silly

JDS has gone 3/5 rounds before, Rozenstruik beat Overeem in the 5th, but their 3 round DEC line is +270?

Livinha is the favourite, her win condition is getting a sub, yet FDNGTD is +200?

Daniel Pineda hasn't lost by sub in 10 years, but his GTD line is +290?

Daukaus and Porter are sloppy Heavyweights with poor cardio, but their GTD line is +260? Fucking DC/Stipe GTS is only +175, and they're fighting for 5 rounds

Maybe I'm overthinking it, but these all see WAY overpriced

 

[Brockstar]

I love BJs myself.

I bought these in bulk from the guy that sells these outside the Toronto Blue Jays games. I sold them at Gay Pride. It is an obvious matching market.

 

[Gugabe]

Some of these GTD lines feel kind of silly

JDS has gone 3/5 rounds before, Rozenstruik beat Overeem in the 5th, but their 3 round DEC line is +270?

Livinha is the favourite, her win condition is getting a sub, yet FDNGTD is +200?

Daniel Pineda hasn't lost by sub in 10 years, but his GTD line is +290?

Daukaus and Porter are sloppy Heavyweights with poor cardio, but their GTD line is +260? Fucking DC/Stipe GTS is only +175, and they're fighting for 5 rounds

Maybe I'm overthinking it, but these all see WAY overpriced

JDS-Rozenstruik is weird since it's probably tempo-based. If it makes it to 3 mins, I think it probably GTD, but there's also a fair chance that they probably just meet in the middle and swing to death since that's how JDS has been playing it lately. If they elect to not do much, IMO easy over where nothing much happens.

 

[Brockstar]

So, what's the deal?

Are we all going to pitch-in and bring @lefontes and @Danis_champ to a meeting spot in America and have them settle this, or what? Free trip + $500 for the winner or something? I'm sure we can scrounge that much up over the course of a few months with all of us combined. It will bring tons of entertainment to this forum.

Depending where it's held, I can commentate the fight in person.

People donate after winning nights.

 

[lefontes]

So, what's the deal?

Are we all going to pitch-in and bring @lefontes and @Danis_champ to a meeting spot in America and have them settle this, or what? Free trip + $500 for the winner or something? I'm sure we can scrounge that much up over the course of a few months with all of us combined. It will bring tons of entertainment to this forum.

Depending where it's held, I can commentate the fight in person.

Im in. Send me location.

 

[TrueAscension]

I was really hoping O'Malley's hype would carry over to the props and not just his ML, but the books were better than that. I think he's likely to win (although no way would I pay this juice) but pretty unlikely to finish. I think he will outland and outclass Vera early, but the fight will even out down the stretch with Vera having a good shot to win rd 3 after dropping the first two.

But +158 is nowhere near good enough to play O'malley's dec prop. And yeah, -250 is too steep on the over even given everything I already said.

I can't knock a play on Vera's ML and that rd 3 prop is great value. Personally it's probably a pass pre fight for me unless I just get too antsy come Saturday and put a few peanuts on something.

how about Not OMalley ITD then

 

[PuertoRican]

Im in. Send me location.

The ball is in your court, @Danis_champ.

 

[mkess101]

how about Not OMalley ITD then

IDK...maybe a little value at -155? I'm not rushing to get a play in on it though. It's an okay line but nothing special imo.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Looks like O Malley tried to play mind games with Vera.

 

[mkess101]

Dodson decision +550, yes please! Thanks to whoever moved that line from +435.

He got the 3rd rd KO over Wood last time out, yeah. His previous 6 fights saw the cards. Merab has gone to a decision in 5 of his last 6.

Dodson dropped 4 of those 6 sure, but every one of those fights were against MUCH better strikers than Merab. If this ends up being a fight where Merab is constantly hunting TD's (he will) but is unable to really ever hold Dodson down long (likely imo) then it could EASILY be a case where the few good strikes that Dodson lands per round are weighted heavier by the judges than Merab's nonstop attempts at making it a grappling match.

Fights like this are the ones where scores can be all over the place as judges see it differently. And one guy's decision line is +550? Okay then...

 

[2020Tracked]

I think if Dodson/Merab goes the distance and is close Merab gets the nod. The UFC are going to favour him carrying on a win streak as mini Khabib and a takedoen machine over giving 35 year old way past it Dodson

 

[mkess101]

I think if Dodson/Merab goes the distance and is close Merab gets the nod. The UFC are going to favour him carrying on a win streak as mini Khabib and a takedoen machine over giving 35 year old way past it Dodson

Well...sure. If you buy that the UFC influences judges like that the logic holds. And I'm not saying they don't. But there are examples of decisions that have been close and gone counter to what benefits the UFC.

And (far) more importantly...Merab dec -160 and Dodson Dec +550. So if it does end up a close fight which one of those lines do you want to be on?

 

[NorthernLights]

I actually have a +30% ROI when betting on fighters between 1.4 and 1.6.
My best odd range actually, by far.

Maybe I wasn't clear enough but I meant that playing a fighters prop bet instead of his moneyline is a shitty strategy. I have no issues with playing a fighter at 1.40 (if the line has value)

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Who is going to miss weight tomorrow. Any takers?

 

[2020Tracked]

Who's going to fail a corona test last second? My guess is Chito

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Dodson vs Merab is a similiar match up to Dodson vs Wood and we all know how it ended