UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 Discussion

Fully aware of how unpopular this take will be (and I really hate that it's how I saw things on tape), but it feels like most likely outcome in JDS v Rozenstruik is Rozenstruik KO

Rozenstruik has fight ending power yes, but mostly his striking is just fucking fast and his leg kicks slow his opponents down to make them more hittable. JDS relies heavily on movement so the leg kicks are a killer for him, and he overextends SO MUCH on both his punches and his leg kicks. I also have a huge amount of concern about JDS's chin - He hasn't been properly put out, but he got rocked in all four of his last four fights, including the fight against Tai Tuivasa. Another significant concern is that he seemed to struggle a lot with Tai Tuivasa's handspeed, and this was years ago against someone who literally only has hands

From what I can tell, JDS does have a pretty significant advantage on the ground, but I also have absolutely zero faith he will take the fight there since even when he was struggling on the feet against Tai Tuivasa (a fighter everybody knew had no wrestling), he STILL avoided attempting even a single takedown, only going to the ground after knocking Tuivasa down

Which tbf is kind of JDS's thing. What he wants to do is overextending jab and overextending low kick from the outside before retreating, pouncing if he senses he's hurt his opponent. What he actually does when his opponent is a pressure fighter is hit them then attempt to get the fuck out of there, but ultimately engage in a firefight if he is unable to. Since Jairzinho is a pressure fighter, we'll likely have ourselves a shootout, and Jairzinho's speed and power edge gives him the advantage in one of those

The X Factor in this fight is that for some unbeknownst reason the matchmakers decided to put it on PPV as a 3 rounder instead of having it as a 5 round fight night main event. With 5 rounds, Jairzinho has time to find JDS's chin. With 3 rounds... It's probably still the most likely outcome, but not enough to make -110 (1.91) a value pick

I hope I'm wrong because I fucking love JDS and would much rather bet on him as a dog, so if I am wrong on any of this please let me know, but it does seem like he's probably a bigger dog than the odds suggest
 
is there a site out there that predicts line movement/ who the money is coming in on?
 
For the record I also think there's some value in Felice as a moderate-heavy dog since she's generally pretty scrambly, has decent enough TDD, solid top game and a the better striking, but not a ton since Michelle Waterson took her down and held here there without too much issue. Fight Goes To Decision at -205 seems pretty safe since I can't see Felice getting subbed, but I also don't play lines that steep so won't be something I personally get on

And as I put in the Futures thread I'm big on Dodson - Strong enough wrestler that he should be able to nullify Merab's wrestling, doesn't have cardio issues, and should be able to beat Merab on the feet pretty easily through having an actual striking game (and a fuckton of power)
 
BigSteve said:
is there a site out there that predicts line movement/ who the money is coming in on?
Click to expand...
Idk about predicting, but bestfightodds shows recent line movements

Usable enough for me since Aussie/UK books are a little slow on the uptake, but for offshore/Americans it's probably not great
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Fully aware of how unpopular this take will be (and I really hate that it's how I saw things on tape), but it feels like most likely outcome in JDS v Rozenstruik is Rozenstruik KO

Rozenstruik has fight ending power yes, but mostly his striking is just fucking fast and his leg kicks slow his opponents down to make them more hittable. JDS relies heavily on movement so the leg kicks are a killer for him, and he overextends SO MUCH on both his punches and his leg kicks. I also have a huge amount of concern about JDS's chin - He hasn't been properly put out, but he got rocked in all four of his last four fights, including the fight against Tai Tuivasa. Another significant concern is that he seemed to struggle a lot with Tai Tuivasa's handspeed, and this was years ago against someone who literally only has hands

From what I can tell, JDS does have a pretty significant advantage on the ground, but I also have absolutely zero faith he will take the fight there since even when he was struggling on the feet against Tai Tuivasa (a fighter everybody knew had no wrestling), he STILL avoided attempting even a single takedown, only going to the ground after knocking Tuivasa down

Which tbf is kind of JDS's thing. What he wants to do is overextending jab and overextending low kick from the outside before retreating, pouncing if he senses he's hurt his opponent. What he actually does when his opponent is a pressure fighter is hit them then attempt to get the fuck out of there, but ultimately engage in a firefight if he is unable to. Since Jairzinho is a pressure fighter, we'll likely have ourselves a shootout, and Jairzinho's speed and power edge gives him the advantage in one of those

The X Factor in this fight is that for some unbeknownst reason the matchmakers decided to put it on PPV as a 3 rounder instead of having it as a 5 round fight night main event. With 5 rounds, Jairzinho has time to find JDS's chin. With 3 rounds... It's probably still the most likely outcome, but not enough to make -110 (1.91) a value pick

I hope I'm wrong because I fucking love JDS and would much rather bet on him as a dog, so if I am wrong on any of this please let me know, but it does seem like he's probably a bigger dog than the odds suggest
Click to expand...
In addition to that, JDS' last fight with Blaydes was really alarming to me. Was heavy on o1.5 prop and what we got was Blaydes of all people outboxing him. JDS chin has regressed and he's too slow, also spams that stupid lead uppercuts which I don't think should be too much trouble for Rozen to counter if Blaydes was able to. JDS looks like he's on some nice supplements based on his most recent uploads but unless he can turn back the clock 10 years off of that, then even in 3 rounds I wouldn't be surprised if Rozen lands the big shot to end his night. Don't think it's an unpopular take at all.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
In addition to that, JDS' last fight with Blaydes was really alarming to me. Was heavy on o1.5 prop and what we got was Blaydes of all people outboxing him. JDS chin has regressed and he's too slow, also spams that stupid lead uppercuts which I don't think should be too much trouble for Rozen to counter if Blaydes was able to. JDS looks like he's on some nice supplements based on his most recent uploads but unless he can turn back the clock 10 years off of that, then even in 3 rounds I wouldn't be surprised if Rozen lands the big shot to end his night. Don't think it's an unpopular take at all.
Click to expand...
Yeah... Ngl I don't put too much stock in that one since JDS had to worry about Blaydes's takedowns the entire time. Do feel like he's going to get knocked out, but the moment a fighter starts worrying about defending takedowns they become WAY more hittable and get Luke Rockhold hands, and he won't have that concern against Rozenstruik
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Kin Kamka III vs Tony Kelley will fight at UFC 252.

I dont know any of these two fighters i assume they are?
Click to expand...

mmaday4day said:
If forced to make a pick I would go with Kin Kamka III but who knows... where the hell did the UFC find this Kelley guy?? 1st fight since 2016!!
Click to expand...
I haven't heard of Kai Kamaka III before, but I know who Tony Kelley is.

For any of you older MMA fans, you will remember the popular MMA reality TV show on the MTV channel called Caged. It took place somewhere in Louisiana, and featured a group of fighters who wanted to get good and eventually fight in the bigger shows. The most popular guy who came out of that show was Matt Schnell. If I remember correctly, the rest of the guys retired -- even Kelley retired for a bit, as I kept following his "career" after that and gave up when he went MIA from MMA altogether.

Tony Kelley showed decent skills on the show as a guy who was just starting out, but he was stuck in his ways, and was never able to get over the hump. Schnell showed the most talent, as he was willing to learn.

No idea how Kamaka vs. Kelley will look, but maybe we'll get good dog odds on Kamaka once word gets around of Kelley's early days on MTV and connection to Matt Schnell and loose connection to any current/former UFC fighter who is from Louisiana (I used to train with him, I train with him, I've rolled with Poirier once, etc.).
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Yeah... Ngl I don't put too much stock in that one since JDS had to worry about Blaydes's takedowns the entire time. Do feel like he's going to get knocked out, but the moment a fighter starts worrying about defending takedowns they become WAY more hittable and get Luke Rockhold hands, and he won't have that concern against Rozenstruik
Click to expand...
I get your point, but I don't recall Blaydes doing that to anyone else standing as he knows his bread and butter is wrestling the whole fight (as do all his opponents) so it's a pretty bad look. Maybe I'm misremembering the recent Blaydes vs Volkov fight but I recall Volkov lighting up Bladyes on the feet down the stretch despite dozens of takedowns being spammed his way. Blaydes is a very basic striker and I don't think the wrestling excuse is good enough to justify how shit JDS was in the stand up. There wasn't much in way of adaptions similar to the Tuivasa fight actually. Looks to me like JDS is starting to get pretty washed up at this point in his career. But again his physique looks noticeably different (not a coincidence with USADA testing less apparently) so we'll see what he can do.
 
Last edited:
PuertoRican said:
I haven't heard of Kai Kamaka III before, but I know who Tony Kelley is.

For any of you older MMA fans, you will remember the popular MMA reality TV show on the MTV channel called Caged. It took place somewhere in Louisiana, and featured a group of fighters who wanted to get good and eventually fight in the bigger shows. The most popular guy who came out of that show was Matt Schnell. If I remember correctly, the rest of the guys retired -- even Kelley retired for a bit, as I kept following his "career" after that and gave up when he went MIA from MMA altogether.

Tony Kelley showed decent skills on the show as a guy who was just starting out, but he was stuck in his ways, and was never able to get over the hump. Schnell showed the most talent, as he was willing to learn.

No idea how Kamaka vs. Kelley will look, but maybe we'll get good dog odds on Kamaka once word gets around of Kelley's early days on MTV and connection to Matt Schnell and loose connection to any current/former UFC fighter who is from Louisiana (I used to train with him, I train with him, I've rolled with Poirier once, etc.).
Click to expand...

Wait I watched that show!!! Which one was he? The country dude who cut weight in his old Ford Mustang? The guy who’s girlfriend died who everyone swore was good but kept getting knocked out? The guy who had severe anxiety problems?
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Fully aware of how unpopular this take will be (and I really hate that it's how I saw things on tape), but it feels like most likely outcome in JDS v Rozenstruik is Rozenstruik KO

Rozenstruik has fight ending power yes, but mostly his striking is just fucking fast and his leg kicks slow his opponents down to make them more hittable. JDS relies heavily on movement so the leg kicks are a killer for him, and he overextends SO MUCH on both his punches and his leg kicks. I also have a huge amount of concern about JDS's chin - He hasn't been properly put out, but he got rocked in all four of his last four fights, including the fight against Tai Tuivasa. Another significant concern is that he seemed to struggle a lot with Tai Tuivasa's handspeed, and this was years ago against someone who literally only has hands

From what I can tell, JDS does have a pretty significant advantage on the ground, but I also have absolutely zero faith he will take the fight there since even when he was struggling on the feet against Tai Tuivasa (a fighter everybody knew had no wrestling), he STILL avoided attempting even a single takedown, only going to the ground after knocking Tuivasa down

Which tbf is kind of JDS's thing. What he wants to do is overextending jab and overextending low kick from the outside before retreating, pouncing if he senses he's hurt his opponent. What he actually does when his opponent is a pressure fighter is hit them then attempt to get the fuck out of there, but ultimately engage in a firefight if he is unable to. Since Jairzinho is a pressure fighter, we'll likely have ourselves a shootout, and Jairzinho's speed and power edge gives him the advantage in one of those

The X Factor in this fight is that for some unbeknownst reason the matchmakers decided to put it on PPV as a 3 rounder instead of having it as a 5 round fight night main event. With 5 rounds, Jairzinho has time to find JDS's chin. With 3 rounds... It's probably still the most likely outcome, but not enough to make -110 (1.91) a value pick

I hope I'm wrong because I fucking love JDS and would much rather bet on him as a dog, so if I am wrong on any of this please let me know, but it does seem like he's probably a bigger dog than the odds suggest
Click to expand...

Why would this be an unpopular take? JDS has been past it for years and his last 5 loses have been via finish. Rozenstruick (however the hell you spell it) honestly isn't anything special and his turn around since his last loss is probably a bit too quick, but he has a legit striking background and hits very hard. JDS hasn't really fixed any of his weaknesses over the years and his chin is all but gone against heavy hitters.

The only reason I'd hesitate to bet on this is if JDS shows up as in good shape as he has shown in his instagram pictures, but I doubt that to be the case come weigh-in time.
 
I think of Rozen lands one clean punch JDS just goes down, but I can see the path for JDS. Red flags with both guys and maybe JDS is the value side but if he gets hit coming in early and drops it's going to look like a really square bet.

I have a feeling that O'Mally is going to absolutely school Chito and it's almost going to look like a miss match.. But it's just the question of can he finish and if he can when
 
BigSteve said:
Main event to end in KO at 1.56 has caught my eye. One way or another I think someone is getting KOed again
Click to expand...
I’d prefer FDGTD 1.50. Paying 0.06 for covering both subs.

Suprised honestly the odds have gone from 1.36 to 1.50. I thought it’d be lined around 1.25 or so. Small cage and both fights ended inside the distance, yes maybe cormier was on his way to a dec, but still I would not play 2.50 for decision, way too low.
 
Last edited:
So I taped the Chris Daukaus v Parker Porter fight and uhhhh... Yeah. It's a standard Heavyweight shitshow

Straight off the bat, both of these guys have visibly been very fat before and are carrying a lot of excess skin. For Porter a large portion went to his legs, for Daukaus it pretty much stayed around the belly area

Daukaus is a very Heavyweight fighter, but with headkicks (well... 'headkicks'. His last fight saw him jump into a literal horizontal position to land the kick, and it was on an opponent who was coming up from LHW and was visibly much shorter than him). He has the faster handspeed of the two, but he also has literally zero head movement and relies heavily on his footwork to get him out of tough spots. As a result, he got knocked out in his fight before last, a fight he was pretty comfortably winning. He also doesn't seem to have a ton of power or accuracy, demonstrating killing instinct in trying to finish Zu Anyanwu, but ultimately coming up fruitless. He trains with his brother Kyle, who is a pretty high level wrestler, so you'd hope his wrestling was high level too. Honestly I couldn't see much of it in the tape, but maybe that'll be the difference maker come fight night. Unlike his younger brother, Chris Daukaus has a full time job, working as a police officer. He also has a family, and while he's been doing what he could to stay ready in case of a short notice callup (as of an interview from April), ultimately his training over lockdown consisted of hitting the exercycle, running, and occasionally hitting pads with his brother. This did however mean he remained in decent shape, if out of practice

Parker Porter is a big fucker. Guy has actual head movement, attacks heavy leg kicks, and I actually saw him check a leg kick in his last fight. He's also pretty good at holding his weight on his opponent, and in past fights has had surprisingly good cardio considering his weight (ie not Dada 5000 tier). Like Daukaus he gets hit a lot, but he at least rolls with the punches rather than just taking them square on the chin. It's kind of hard to judge where he's at right now though due to the fact he took a 3 year break from MMA, and most of his fights since returning have been first round finishes

The X factor is the condition Parker is in. While Daukaus has had to deal with being a full time policeman, taking care of his family and training on the side (a way of life he's used to), Parker has a 3 week old child who has prevented him from sleeping most nights. Although he generally has to cut weight to make 265 (he's a big fucker), he did make a point of pointing out that he would have to cut this time around a week ago when doing an interview with MMA media. But he's also pointed out that the fact it's a PPV is huge, so he's going to give it 100% of what he has

If all things were equal, I'd be pretty comfortably on Porter. It honestly just feels like Daukaus would get caught and knocked out pretty easily. Given Porter JUST had a baby though and because of the importance of sleep (in addition to staying fight ready), a sensible person would pass. Personally, I'll probably hit Porter R1 KO, Daukaus R2, Daukaus R3. I can't see this one going to the cards, either Porter puts Daukaus's lights out early or he gets fucking tired
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,280,879
Messages
58,325,374
Members
176,001
Latest member
Markooz86

Share this page

Back
Top