UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 Discussion

[Card]

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[Monster Meat]

Already have Cormier to close out a few parlays at -110 and will add to him straight. Liking Dodson +160 at those odds and will be taking the over 2.5. I want to bet O’Malley but at over 3-1 I don’t think I can. Probably will try to get him by dec at descent odds figuring Vera will be game enough not to get finished.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Agreed, hope to see the same. Pichel just hasn't been that impressive in his UFC run his biggest win was Roosevelt Roberts which was a really close fight, and Miller was able to finish him in round 1

... Wait how is that relevant lol

Roberts slipped and got caught in a low percentage move which the vast majority of fighters are able to get out of. I genuinely cannot see how that win applies to the Miller v Pichel fight

 

[StewDogg11]

... Wait how is that relevant lol

Roberts slipped and got caught in a low percentage move which the vast majority of fighters are able to get out of. I genuinely cannot see how that win applies to the Miller v Pichel fight

Eh I’m not sure that’s exactly a low percentage move with a grappler like Jim Miller especially early in the fight.

 

[Gugabe]

Eh I’m not sure that’s exactly a low percentage move with a grappler like Jim Miller especially early in the fight.

I'd say more the bit where Roberts fell over throwing a legkick and Miller got top position that way was the low percentage bit. I was pretty big on Miller, but that outcome was just generally pretty whatever.

Pichel's got 15 minutes of cardio, Miller's got about 7. IMO Miller needs to make it a war in the first and try getting a sub/KO since he's gonna lose down the stretch.

 

[2020Tracked]

I'd say more the bit where Roberts fell over throwing a legkick and Miller got top position that way was the low percentage bit. I was pretty big on Miller, but that outcome was just generally pretty whatever.

Pichel's got 15 minutes of cardio, Miller's got about 7. IMO Miller needs to make it a war in the first and try getting a sub/KO since he's gonna lose down the stretch.

Pretty much how I see, I think Miller is a little better everywhere, but only in round one. Once it hits the second it all falls apart and Vinc will still be fresh, but that round one is going to be a sweat, especially in the grappling and scrambles, Miller gets to the back so quickly.

 

[Gugabe]

Pretty much how I see, I think Miller is a little better everywhere, but only in round one. Once it hits the second it all falls apart and Vinc will still be fresh, but that round one is going to be a sweat, especially in the grappling and scrambles, Miller gets to the back so quickly.

I got on Pichel for a unit at like -105, and I'm happy with that. Pichel's also old enough and COVID training's wierd enough you don't know if he randomly looks 10,000 years old but I still think he takes this at a pretty decent clip.

 

[2020Tracked]

I got on Pichel for a unit at like -105, and I'm happy with that. Pichel's also old enough and COVID training's wierd enough you don't know if he randomly looks 10,000 years old but I still think he takes this at a pretty decent clip.

Came away from tape leaning Vinc, Miller has crushed bums in his last few wins other than Roosevelt but I think he got fairly lucky there and would give more credit to Vinc's performance against him. Weird dividing line for Miller, he either blows guys out or gets smoked

But true, either guy could potentially look a corpse... Might take Vinc for a unit too, I think the money comes in on him so I can always cash

 

[Omni1]

Already have Cormier to close out a few parlays at -110 and will add to him straight. Liking Dodson +160 at those odds and will be taking the over 2.5. I want to bet O’Malley but at over 3-1 I don’t think I can. Probably will try to get him by dec at descent odds figuring Vera will be game enough not to get finished.

Would be cool if there was a prop bet for Vera winning round 3. I'll be shocked if he doesn't.

 

[Omni1]

Yoder has a chance, but for almost the exact opposite reason as what you stated. The improvement that she has shown in her last couple of fights has been wrestling and top game.

Her striking and defense are as awful as ever, to the point where Randa Markos was easily and consistently lighting her up on the feet.

Yoder's strategy against Souza will be to grapple early and often and hope her superior size and length will win her exchanges in clinches against the cage, as well as some takedowns.

That being said, for a number of specific technical reasons, I think Souza is very much the rightful favorite and then some. I'm not firing off a bet just yet because I'm hoping Souza's price improves even more and I might want to look at weigh-ins, especially given at least one WMMA favorite I bet who came in looking like she hadn't exercised a single time during the pandemic (Brianna Van Buren), not to mention the usual caveats about betting WMMA favorites, but it's either her or pass.

If you are going to bet on Souza wait until after the weigh ins & face offs. Casual bettors will bet Yoder from looks & size alone. Spider Monkey has a significant reach on Souza.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

It is just you.

Her opponent Souza is a submission artist there to take Yoder to the ground and once she does she has plenty in her arsenal to submit Yoder; who if we are being candid deserves to be 1-4 in the UFC.Yoder Sounds like a nice person in her interviews, is very tough, but has no real skillset that makes her a threat in a fight versus a real bjj black belt hell bent on submitting her.

Thats not to say Souza is a great fighter, she's not, but Yoder is not UFC caliber.

Yoder arguably beat Dern though.

Souza beat a roided up scrub and lost every minute vs. Van Buren so Im not entirely sure how good she is. Yoder is competitive even in all of her losses. I think she is a solid underdog play given the odds. I wouldnt bet her as a favorite.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

This is a wildly dishonest way of presenting her record.

Everyone and their mother thinks Dern and Markos each beat Yoder except 1 of the official judges in each;

http://www.mmadecisions.com/decision/8881/Mackenzie-Dern-vs-Ashley-Yoder

(19 media members for Dern, 1 for Yoder, 77% of fans for Dern)

http://www.mmadecisions.com/decision/10595/Randa-Markos-vs-Ashley-Yoder

(10 media members for Markos, 0 for Yoder, 87.2% of fans for Markos, with another 3% thinking it was a draw)

By contrast, most people think Yoder's "win" over Amanda Bobby Cooper was an outright robbery;

http://www.mmadecisions.com/decision/9497/Ashley-Yoder-vs-Amanda-Cooper

(15 media members for Cooper, just 2 for Yoder, and 69.4% of fans for Cooper, with another 4% believing it was a draw)

So it's a lot more accurate to say that Yoder is arguably 1-3 in her last 4 fights.

Thats interesting. I bet on Dern and went into the scores thinking that Yoder probably won. She was more accurate on the feet, while Dern was just more aggressive.

 

[piglord]

i hope we get a phat number on marlon vera after round one, because i'm a greedy pig.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

i hope we get a phat number on marlon vera after round one, because i'm a greedy pig.

Yeah in another thread few weeks ago I mentioned might as well wait till after first round if playing vera cause he's a slow starter and malley is polar opposite so I can't see how the number wouldn't be better than pre-fight. Also you avoid risk of vera getting ko'd in first round by not pre-betting him.

 

[Sono07]

Yeah in another thread few weeks ago I mentioned might as well wait till after first round if playing vera cause he's a slow starter and malley is polar opposite so I can't see how the number wouldn't be better than pre-fight. Also you avoid risk of vera getting ko'd in first round by not pre-betting him.

Not worried about the live lines acting up? Seems like they have been wonky at least on Dimes recently. I'm still mad I couldn't get anything on Bobby Green after r1 the other week.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Not worried about the live lines acting up? Seems like they have been wonky at least on Dimes recently. I'm still mad I couldn't get anything on Bobby Green after r1 the other week.

5dimes has indeed been a bit odd recently. Not sure where you´re from Sono07, but if possible always a good idea to keep a few bookies open so you´re not soley depending on one. I like to have 3-6 open, and then just skip through them very quickly to see the best odds.

 

[yellowbean]

5dimes has indeed been a bit odd recently. Not sure where you´re from Sono07, but if possible always a good idea to keep a few bookies open so you´re not soley depending on one. I like to have 3-6 open, and then just skip through them very quickly to see the best odds.

So which bookies？

 

[Sono07]

5dimes has indeed been a bit odd recently. Not sure where you´re from Sono07, but if possible always a good idea to keep a few bookies open so you´re not soley depending on one. I like to have 3-6 open, and then just skip through them very quickly to see the best odds.

Only a handful of options where I am in the US, that I know of at least. Just using Bovada and Dimes right now. Haven't been pre-betting as much lately though, looting to do, statues to topple and what not.

Hopefully the lines act right this weekend. I imagine Ankalaev's price might get better after r1 if Ion burns himself out early.

 

[SolarSeiko]

UFC just uploaded it a few days ago funny enough:

time stamped 2:27, is it me or is this haymaker really fucking slow