UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

[mkess101]

As a rule paying juice in WMMA is a trap. The exception is for the very elite fighters in their prime such as Nunes. IMO Ribas hasn't earned my respect enough. So I guess I would say the line is justified but that doesn't mean I am betting it, if that makes sense.

Yeah, and here's another aspect of it (isn't exclusive to WMMA but applies here for sure): It's harder to assess value the wider a line gets imo. Meaning, we are used to gauging value on -130 vs -175 vs -200 vs -250, etc. Most MMA lines are in those neighborhoods, so we're used to looking at lines like that and figuring out if value exists.

When you start talking about massive favorites, they are outliers in MMA (WMMA included). So when you look at a fight like Ribas vs PVZ, what are you looking for with "value". We all agree Ribas should be a prohibitive favorite, great. But what does that mean? -350 -500? -750? -900? Just how massive a favorite should she be? -600 vs -800 is a big jump, but who's actually looking at a fight like this and judging which one is correct LOL? Not me, that's for sure. And that's why it's just a pass on the ML. I'll just make a little play on Ribas sub around +200 and leave it at that.

 

[SolarSeiko]

I agree with this assertion that masvidal pretty much in fight shape.

My heart tells me usman gonna be usman and clinch against cage, get takedown gnp repeat

My mind tells me he might really try and test his hands longer than he should because of his ego and get put to sleep

It's what Masvidal has to do during that clinch attempt from Usman. If Masvidal can keep his back away from the cage, Usman will be forced into an exchange. It's a shame Masvidal didn't try this hard when he was in his prime, dude is like 36?

Usman's best bet imo is to come slugging fast and try to force the clinch against the cage in a blitz. But his style is usually a slower stalking type movement with shitty hands thrown.

 

[mkess101]

I liked tybura decision at +215

I see no reason why he can’t take grishim down or control him against the cage for extended periods of time

Tybura seemed to remember where his bread and butter was in his last fight

100% agree, and played the same line myself just this morning.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Zhumagulov has the weirdest striking style man. It's like he's trying to grow his arms by stretching them as much as he can with every uppercut. Adds a leg kick to the end of each combination which I like, tbh I felt like he lost pretty much every FNG fight he had but that's mostly due to the fact that he struggles with defensive wrestling (obviously not a threat here). His takedowns are alright if a little basic but they're there if he needs them

Paiva obviously has some power and uses his range well-... Ish. You can clearly see that he could pretty easily stick and move with each have and he's like halfway there, but dude always chooses to overextend just past his point of balance and leaves himself extremely susceptible to counters (at which point his opponents can pretty much land at will). I think this is because overextending gives him a little more power and he's hungry for the KO? Honestly Paiva didn't do that badly against Bontorin's takedowns despite eventually being chucked to the floor, but Bontorin also literally brute strengthed it while Zhumagulov is a little more technical

Tbh this has split decision written all over it, but the fact Paiva keeps leaving himself so off base makes me wonder if he could be knocked out too. Either way I'm more comfortable going for the dog on this one where there isn't a clear PTV for the favourite based on what they've previously shown in the Octagon

 

[Naught2Sixty]

When Michael Jackson beat CM Punk I was 100% certain that MJ had bet on himself to win via DEC

Had to have. How did punk survive moments like this?

 

[ill800]

Also thinking about oezdemir dec +370

jiris cardio looked good vs king mo over 3 rounds. My only concern is that Jiri hasn’t fought anyone with volks power and he was kod by mo in their first fight

I think oezdemir is going to look take jiri down early and try to slow down that hand speed. The lead leg of jiri is also there all day to be kicked. Could be a potential 3rd round stoppage if jiri can’t handle the wrestling and leg kicks.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Usman down to -250 and still a few days to go. This could get really nice by fight day

Man, and I jumped on -270 odds because I thought that was as good as it would get and he’d be beyond -300 by now

 

[ill800]

Usman down to -250 and still a few days to go. This could get really nice by fight day

Man, and I jumped on -270 odds because I thought that was as good as it would get and he’d be beyond -300 by now

I have him capped in the -240-300 range

I think would play him at -200

 

[TheFightGame]

The jimmie rivera vs Yan fight was a lot closer than people would like to believe when you take away the knockdowns, as far as the exchanges go, rivera won many of them. However, I don't think aldo presents the same problems rivera does mainly as far as mobility and being able to get in and out of the pocket quickly. Aldo head movement is good but he isn't nearly as shifty, and I don't think he will be as comfortable fighting off his back foot which is pretty much inevitable.

 

[Sono07]

Also thinking about oezdemir dec +370

jiris cardio looked good vs king mo over 3 rounds. My only concern is that Jiri hasn’t fought anyone with volks power and he was kod by mo in their first fight

I think oezdemir is going to look take jiri down early and try to slow down that hand speed. The lead leg of jiri is also there all day to be kicked. Could be a potential 3rd round stoppage if jiri can’t handle the wrestling and leg kicks.

I think Volkan could have success in the clinch grinding Jiri against the cage. I don't think Jiri has fought in a cage since 2017 and I imagine the grappling is a little different with ropes.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Yeah, and here's another aspect of it (isn't exclusive to WMMA but applies here for sure): It's harder to assess value the wider a line gets imo. Meaning, we are used to gauging value on -130 vs -175 vs -200 vs -250, etc. Most MMA lines are in those neighborhoods, so we're used to looking at lines like that and figuring out if value exists.

When you start talking about massive favorites, they are outliers in MMA (WMMA included). So when you look at a fight like Ribas vs PVZ, what are you looking for with "value". We all agree Ribas should be a prohibitive favorite, great. But what does that mean? -350 -500? -750? -900? Just how massive a favorite should she be? -600 vs -800 is a big jump, but who's actually looking at a fight like this and judging which one is correct LOL? Not me, that's for sure. And that's why it's just a pass on the ML. I'll just make a little play on Ribas sub around +200 and leave it at that.

Its a great point about steep odds being harder to cap. We have a much better feel through experience with playing lines in the -200 or +200 range. I agree we are less experienced with appreciating the difference between -700 and -1200.

I have burned wayyyy too much stupid money betting boxing dogs at massive plus odds... cuz ya know - value. lol

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[Jae Gibbz]

I really like the Masvidal/Usman o4.5 at + money.

I have a hard time seeing Usman finishing Masvidal. In the rare occurrence it does happen, I think it'll be a late stoppage TKO where the over still might possibly hit. Can't really see Usman subbing him... and although I guess it's slightly (very slightly) possible that Usman drops him on the feet and wins by follow up GNP, I can't really see that happening either. Discounting Usman's 1st UFC win over Hassan, he has hit the over 9 out of 10 times. Even counting that, he has hit the over 9 out of 11 times which is still a great stat.

If there is a finish, I think it'll be by Masvidal. However, I also think it's unlikely. Like I said with Usman, I can't really see Masvidal subbing him... Jorge's striking is legit and there's a chance he does drop/KO Usman, but man Usman has such a giant head and good punch resistance that I'm having a hard time seeing it happen. If it does, it's probably off a counter that Usman doesn't see coming.

Anywho, I think the over 4.5/ GTD lines should be -200 or over

 

[TheFightGame]

I really like the Masvidal/Usman o4.5 at + money.

I have a hard time seeing Usman finishing Masvidal. In the rare occurrence it does happen, I think it'll be a late stoppage TKO where the over still might possibly hit. Can't really see Usman subbing him... and although I guess it's slightly (very slightly) possible that Usman drops him on the feet and wins by follow up GNP, I can't really see that happening either. Discounting Usman's 1st UFC win over Hassan, he has hit the over 9 out of 10 times. Even counting that, he has hit the over 9 out of 11 times which is still a great stat.

If there is a finish, I think it'll be by Masvidal. However, I also think it's unlikely. Like I said with Usman, I can't really see Masvidal subbing him... Jorge's striking is legit and there's a chance he does drop/KO Usman, but man Usman has such a giant head and good punch resistance that I'm having a hard time seeing it happen. If it does, it's probably off a counter that Usman doesn't see coming.

Anywho, I think the over 4.5/ GTD lines should be -200 or over

Thought that line was odd as well, but isn't o 4.5 mean it has to be a decision?

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Thought that line was odd as well, but isn't o 4.5 mean it has to be a decision?

Nope. It means the fight has to go past 2:30 of the 5th round. Almost the same, but with the o4.5 you can still cash your bet with a late 5th round finish

 

[matthew55]

Jesus, you have a small brain.

You keep saying dumb shit and then accusing me of being the dumb one, truly amazing. You're special.

 

[Martialbeef]

I want to bet Dos Santos at dog odds but he isn’t going to wrestle Salikhov, is he?

 

[TheFightGame]

I keep studying Petr Yan film. I'm beginning to like his decision prop a lot. Aldo potential cardio issues are being overstated and his chin still seems to be there. Yan has serious power in his hands but it's more crippling flash knockdown power than put your lights out power. It takes him time to really finish someone once he goes in for the kill.

He may get himself into a lot of clinches with the stronger aldo which may take a marginal toll on his endurance, meaning he will still be effective but there may be less pop on his shots as the fight goes on. The first round will almost certainly be a feeling out round and as this is Yan's first title fight, I expect him to be the aggressor but fight with a little more caution.

 

[piglord]

i like usman decision at anything better than +150. i think it easily hits more than 50% of the time.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Aldo potential cardio issues are being overstated and his chin still seems to be there.

Sorry to talk little bit off topic...

Aldo do have cardio issues. And I finally think I know where they stem from. He is a hair trigger counter puncher. Which is exhausting if you think about it. You are constantly one tight, coiled spring, ready to unleash when you see even a half of oppening. McGregor is more or less the same. He's more crafty with it, and more dangerous, but he's on that hair trigger too. Relies on speed and reflexes. Speed and reflexes won't be as sharp past the 2nd round. And really past the 1st, if we talk fighting good guys. Because you can KO bad opposition even if you get little bit slower, but top guys - not so much.