UFC 251 Official Bets

[yellowbean]

and these three

 

[xhaydenx]

My final result was $225 profit for the day. I had 2.5k on Rose and that won 1.25k. My gambling buddies all won way more off way less risk because I had them on Santos, Makwan, Volk, and Rose for 5.50 or something. So that was a little frustrating but ah well.

Some awesome lessons learned though. I've been curious about Live Betting for a while but never given it a crack until today.

I chickened out on a few of the early fights. I saw them offering 5.50 odds for Slikhov to in at the end of the 2nd, and I was sure he was winning on points, which he did. I left it to late to put the 2.5k down. Would've been a massive win. Would have pounced on Jiri after that first round. Oez was fading hard.

I was saying Volk to win all day, and then decided to live bet that. Waited until the end of the 2nd and put 1k down on Max, which was fucking stupid. I shuld have waited until the end of the third because then I would have known it was going to be a close fight and wouldn't have bothered.

Going to be fun Live Betting on everything going forward. Not counting that Volk pick that I flip-flopped on, I'f have gotten every pick right today in the end.

I don't know how bookies can stay in business with live betting. 10k would have won $500 on Usman in the 4th round. I mean, come on. They would have been relying on a very lucky punch to not lose that.

 

[Sadistics]

Usman/Masvidal O2.5 -152 $950
Usman DEC +185 $250

Yan/Aldo DNGTD -142 $500

Andrade +204 $260

Ribas/PVZ U2.5 +140 $1000
Ribas SUB +207 $275

Oezdemir -151 $1600

Paiva -149 $600

Melo +200 $200

Amirkhani -142 $900

Santos -177 $1600
Santos SUB +400 $150
Bogatov DEC +253 $200

Day -132 $1600
Day RD3 +2000 $50


I kinda botched the Santos fight, would've preferred to just be on his sub line. Other than that I'm happy with everything, still have a couple props I'm eyeing. Also expecting some big line movement, this card seems to have attracted a lot of casual action.

+$396. Real rollercoaster of a weekend with +$1200 on LFA, then -$1454 on KSW, then how this card played out. Basically bounced between -2k~ and +500~ all night. I really underestimated Grant and Jiri, Grants a fucking dog and Jiris mix of athleticism, frame, cardio, and durability almost make his many holes irrelevant.

 

[yellowbean]

View attachment 782103
I panicked during max vs. Alex,and I cashed out to win ￥3000 ...otherwise I should have won ￥16000..

I always wanna share my thoughts, communicate with others ,but my first language isn't English,There are many terminology I don't know how to say come to fighting ,can somebody help ？

 

[benebox]

£275 Volkan > Jiri -135 to win £200 -£275
£100 Rose decision Andrade +188 to win £188
£100 Usman / Masvidal FGTD +140 to win £140
£23.21 Masvidal decision +1100 to win £278.52 -£23.21

I basically ended up drunk chase betting an extra £200 on the Rose decision +225 which luckily worked out £450
also lost £118 betting on Day 0.98 -£118
and £50 on the Volkan decision +350 -£50

Total Profit: £311.79

Was very close to betting £200 on the Holloway decision +400 and was gutted during the fight that I didn't until the results where called.

 

[Krieg the Psycho]

So far I have

Usman DEC 0.6u +165

Ribas SUB 0.5u +200

Santos SUB 0.25u +325

Melo DEC 0.5u +325

Avila (won) + Blaydes (won) + Ribas 2u -103
Chandler (won) + Santos 0.5u +137
Poirier (won) + Oezdemir 1u +143
Oezdemir + Amirkhani 1u +169
Henry rd3 0.125u +1600

Santos SUB + Oezdemir/Prochazka under 1.5 0.25u +856
Ribas SUB + Santos SUB + Oezdemir TKO/KO 0.25u +3020

I thought I had played some moneylines but apparently not. At least I have Ribas, Santos and Oezdemir finishing parlays. Didn't realize I had Santos SUB on two parlays.

Considering plays on Aldo/Yan over and Andrade among others.

EDIT: added some
Aldo/Yan over 2.5 + Volkanovski/Holloway over 2.5 1u -103
Day RD3 0.2u +1300
Amirkhani RD1 0.25u +295
Zaleski SUB 0.3u +450
Melo 0.3u +225
And added Amirkhani rd 1 or 2 + Ribas sub 0.25u +634 after the Santos fight

I thought I had a terrible event, but if I didn't mess up the math, I'm actually in the green. About 1.7 units to be exact. That includes live betting but I think I actually lost there (so the above should be even more in the plus), only won Ribas ITD +100 (made the bet just as the fight was starting when I thought I was chasing). But I lost almost 3 units with KSW bets, so overall I'm around one unit down for the day. I'll take it, I thought the damage was much worse. Still doubting my math a little bit, but I do have more money in my accounts than I expected, so I guess it checks out. I hope y'all did better than me. (edit: I was tired but I wrote "ya'll"? Really? I am disappointed in myself.)

 

[BigSteve]

Missed the boat on posting my plays, got 973 profit on this random long shot parlay which I never win lol.

+ 2083 = 10u all up on mostly Rosa+ Santos multy, Makwan, Usman 4,5 DEC and more live plus some round props for Co- main and Aldo fight.
New personal best, not much time to research the other cards though.

 

[DivineMind]

I made my bet for Yan by KO in the fifth round for like +1800.. haha. Turned out to be a good one. Also won a parlay for Us, Volk, Hibas, and Yan.

 

[Sadistics]

I thought I had a terrible event, but if I didn't mess up the math, I'm actually in the green. About 1.7 units to be exact. That includes live betting but I think I actually lost there (so the above should be even more in the plus), only won Ribas ITD +100 (made the bet just as the fight was starting when I thought I was chasing). But I lost almost 3 units with KSW bets, so overall I'm around one unit down for the day. I'll take it, I thought the damage was much worse. Still doubting my math a little bit, but I do have more money in my accounts than I expected, so I guess it checks out. I hope ya'll did better than me.

Lol this sounds exactly like my day.

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

1.5u Usman 4, 5 or DEC @ +100
0.5u Usman vs. Masvidal o4.5 @ +110
0.3u Masvidal DEC @ +1300

0.15u Aldo T/KO @ +450
0.15u Yan DEC @ +275

0.1u Ribas SUB @ +250

0.075u Oezdemir SUB @ +1300
0.05u Prochazka R1 @ +600

0.1u Zaleski dos Santos SUB @ +700

0.05u Bogatov ITD @ +500

I'm mainly looking to continue betting small on props I like, but the Usman 4, 5 or DEC appears too nice to not put a little extra down. Usman winning within three would be a bummer, but I would honestly take the loss to see Masvidal get the finish (I'm a still a big fan, despite him being a bit annoying lately).

Best of luck!

+1.425u
Not sure about Bogatov ITD, but all in all I’m quite happy with most of my bets.

 

[Sono07]

Short on time and it kinda feels like I forced some of this but oh well. Feel like I have a little too much confidence in Usman and Yan, hopefully it works out.

●Salikhov .75u for .5u

●Oezdemir. 75u for .5u

●Usman+Yan 3u for 3u

●Usman+ Rose+ Oezdemir -3 1/2 + Volkanovski -5 1/2 .75u for 6.75u

●Usman+ Yan+ Rose+ Paiva+ Rosa+ Salikhov NSC+ Oezdemir -3 1/2 + Volkanovski -5 1/2 .5u for 22.5u

A couple of questionable calls but not a bad night. Feels like I got lucky with Salikhov.

●Salikhov .75u for .5u

●Oezdemir. 75u for .5u

●Usman+Yan 3u for 3u

●Usman+ Rose+ Oezdemir -3 1/2 + Volkanovski -5 1/2 .75u for 6.75u

●Usman+ Yan+ Rose+ Paiva+ Rosa+ Salikhov NSC+ Oezdemir -3 1/2 + Volkanovski -5 1/2 .5u for 22.5u

Total +1.5u

 

[2020Tracked]

Completely forgot to post on advance this event, oh well. Had a positive night, pre bet I was on Day, terrible bet. Het Holloway for 0.5 unit live after round 2 and bet ZDS live for a unit.

My other pre bets that hit where Amirkani, Santos, PVZ/Ribas under 2.5 rounds, Ribas sub, Aldo/Yan over 2.5 and Usman/Masvidal over 2.5 rounds.

Hit this paraley too

 

[ChinaMMABlog]

Must admit, I'm still a bit salty about that Zhumagulov decision. He won that fight, and the crap judges busted my parlay!

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

$100 on Volkanovski @ -200 WIN
$5 on Day @ -110 LOSE
$5 on Masvidal @ + 180 LOSE

UPDATED: $50 on Masvidal at +180 LOSE

$1 on Grant wins in Round 3 +1800 WIN
$10 on Zaleski @ +120 WIN
$10 on Makwan @ -200 WIN
$1 on Volkan wins in round 3 @ +1000 LOSE
$10 on Volkan via KO/TKO @ +110 LOSE
$10 on Andrade @ +160 LOSE

$5 to win $55 ALEX VOLKANOVSKI -220 + ELIZEU ZALESKI +125 + VOLKAN OEZDEMIR -185 + AMANDA RIBAS -700 + ROSE NAMAJUNAS -220 +PETR YAN -240 WIN

$2.5 to win $52 VOLKAN OEZDEMIR @-150 + VANESSA MELO @+205 + MARTIN DAY @-180 + ALEX VOLKANOVSKI @ -200 + MARCIN TYBURA @-115 LOSE
$2.5 Jiri wins in round 1 @ +550 LOSE

came out $10 up

 

[mkess101]

Man I'm gonna end up way heavier on this card than I originally thought. I hope it's because of actual confidence in my capping and not getting cocky because I crushed it on the last card...

So far (more to come for sure)

Masvidal dec +1025 (little flier just due to big odds)
Volk ML -190
Volk -5.5 +140
Aldo/Yan o2.5 -165
Yan dec +350
Rose/Andrade o2.5 -160
Andrade dec +385
Ribas sub +177
Oezdemir/Prochazka u1.0 +205
Prochazka rd 1 +550
Salikhov dec +385
Zhumagalov dec +242

Still trying to figure out how to play Masvidal/Usman and most of the eariler fights on the card...

Edit: I also have a bunch of random $5 and $10 parlays for fun. If any of the longshot ones get close I'll post screenshots during the card.

Added:

Tybura dec +215
Tybura sub tiny +1650
NOT Namajunas itd -225
Bogatov/Santos goest distance -140

Man I went parlay crazy on this card compared to normal. Oh well, I have some nice ones and if one good one hits it should guarantee a good night. Not my normal way of betting, I usually just do a few. Oh well.

Masvidal dec +1025 (little flier just due to big odds)-loss
Volk ML -190-win
Volk -5.5 +140-loss
Aldo/Yan o2.5 -165-win
Yan dec +350-loss
Rose/Andrade o2.5 -160-win
Andrade dec +385-loss
Ribas sub +177-win
Oezdemir/Prochazka u1.0 +205-loss
Prochazka rd 1 +550-loss
Salikhov dec +385-win
Zhumagalov dec +242-loss
Tybura dec +215-win
Tybura sub tiny +1650-loss
NOT Namajunas itd -225-win
Bogatov/Santos goest distance -140-win

Crushed it last night, hit a parlay at +2600 and a couple others as well. 2 great events in a row.

I don't know most of the fighters in the early fights on Wednesday's card though. So probably will just focus on the main card or it will be nothing but wikicapping and dart throws.

 

[Monster Meat]

I went from +270 to -450 to +300 to -500 then crushed the Yan and usman fight for a final profit of $1650 could have been better if the judges didn’t rob me in the max fight