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UFC 247 Jones vs Reyes

Pilarte deffs got smothered by Corales. I was going to bet on Newson and he does go for takedowns on regionals, but damn he was tiny against Ramos, and Pilarte is even bigger. Cant bet on that.
 
I rewatched the Santos fight and here are my thoughts. Most of the fight Jon stood orthodox to Thiago's SP, because every time he turned to his natural stance he ate a brutal low kick (he almost fell after the first one). From the open stance Thiago was landing the body kick, landed one head kick, and chewed up the inside of Jon's left thigh. Whenever Jon tried to close the distance, Thiago just unloaded bombs
Reyes is also a SP, and I think he is a better kickboxer than Santos. He is imo perfectly capable of replicating the same gameplan. He may have less power and explosiveness, but might get the edge with better technique.
The big question for me is whether Jon will come up with a different game plan, or he will have another close kickboxing match. If he chooses to have a more wrerstling based approach. It is possible he gets a few TDs here and there to swing close rounds. He might gas out like Rockhold vs Jan or Lee vs RDA, but I feel his IQ is too high to get stuck against the cage wasting more energy than his opponent.
If I had to make a straight pick (shout out to Wik), I would predict Jon to make another adaptation and win a close fight. Reyes is just too well prepared, hungry and fresh to get smoked on the ground like GUS. However, I cap him from -150 to -200, and at the current price Reyes has small value for me.
 
Jones isnt even parlay material , he didnt looked great in last fights. Reyes has the power and physical attributes to win The fight.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Jones isnt even parlay 0material , he didnt looked great in last fights. Reyes has the power and physical attributes to win The fight.
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I don't like how Reyes doesn't counterstrike at all, and tends to cover up like a turtle against flurrys. Jones will be able to capitalize on that by closing the distance and using his nasty elbows in the clinch. Spinning attacks should also be there after a knee to the body.

Reyes is good but I don't think he has the tools to deal with the variety of attacks Jones can throw at him.
 
grndzro said:
I don't like how Reyes doesn't counterstrike at all, and tends to cover up like a turtle against flurrys. Jones will be able to capitalize on that by closing the distance and using his nasty elbows in the clinch. Spinning attacks should also be there after a knee to the body.

Reyes is good but I don't think he has the tools to deal with the variety of attacks Jones can throw at him.
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I wouldn't say he doesn't counter at all. He does seem to prefer to angle off and pick his shots. He blasted OSP and Weidman with the same counter left, he also ducked under a shot from Cannonier and blasted him with an uppercut.


Not saying he can counter Jones but I'm small on Reyes for his angles and counters. That OSP fight probably would have been a KO if it wasn't right at the end of the fight.
 
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grndzro said:
I don't like how Reyes doesn't counterstrike at all.
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Edit: Sono07 beat me to it
 
Against Weidman that's like putting down a crippled dog with a baseball bat. My point is he doesn't seem to be looking to counter if the opponent is dangerous.

That uppercut against Cannoneer wasn't really a counter. They were just both in the pocket winging shots. The straight left was pretty out in the open as they were breaking.

When I'm talking counters I mean primarily slip and rip. Jones has an 8 inch reach advantage. There won't be that many opportunities to counter considering his fight IQ. I could see Reyes chewing up JBJ's legs though.
 
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Reyes counters a lot, not really much debate in that. If anything too much cause it leads to him fighting on the backfoot with less volume which could lead to closer rounds against a guy like Jones who likes having space to work.
 
Reyes' left counter is his money punch, he counters moving backwards well.

If you watch Reyes vs Volkan he doesn't look like a man who is ready to fight and beat Jones, that fight really sticks out like a sore thumb, but Volkan has shown an improved game and is dangerous with his power. It's possible the fight looked as close as it did because Reyes was just determined to stick to the gameplan. Small mistakes against Volkan have got a lot of people knocked out. You take that fight away and Reyes has looked very good.

It's possible we are seeing Jones off drugs his past few fights, possibly for the first time in his career. The current narrative is that Jones is slowing down and doesn't look as good as he did. One thing I have noticed is recently Jones has wrestled much less, in his last 4 fights he has totalled 4 takedowns, 3 of those against Smith. It's possible that a Jones off of drugs doesn't have the cardio to maintain a high pressure, high pace, wrestling game over five rounds. Why not take Santos down? It was the obvious path, the least dangerous path, but even when Santos was injured Jones still chose to stand and just pick away.

Could very well just be a choice Jones made in the moment or it could be that Jones knew if he went for takedowns and failed he would tire.

If Jones doesn't or can't wrestle, for whatever reason, and has a kickboxing match with Reyes, does he win that fight?

I don't think Reyes has the gas tank for five rounds either, if he has to defend takedowns, but without a wrestling element he can stand and trade for the full five and I think he would have the advantage there.
 
Crazy to say Reyes doesn't counter at all imo, his best ko's are off of counters, even the cannonier ko was as he was moving back. Weidman and osp was definition of slip and rip
 
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EndlessCritic said:
Ramos dropped rounds in his first four UFC fights. He hasn't shit on anyone except two guys who clearly don't belong in the UFC.
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He actually just shat all over garagorri, wasn't competitive at all. I'd put pilarte around that level. He's borederline ufc quality. His best quality is his bjj and he just got outgrappled against a low tier guy in corales who just got absolutely embarrassed by jackson. Corales really isn't good and pilarte had a really tough time. Even if you think he should've won the decision it wouldn't be a good performance. His best win is morales who's decent but not amazing. Pilarte really isn't great, if he can't get your back he's pretty hopeless
 
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I don't think we have the same definition of counters.
 
I dunno where you all are on the Bektic fight

but I’ve got Dan Ige

consider that a public service announcement and enjoy your free money
 
In MMA terms it's an immediate attack following a dodge or parry.

I'm going to go back to being a lurker. My opinions are apparently garbage anyway.
 
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Wiktoruspro said:
Jones isnt even parlay material , he didnt looked great in last fights. Reyes has the power and physical attributes to win The fight.
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True. However, it remains to be seen if Reyes has good enough takedown defense to keep the fight on the feet vs Jones. During live betting if Reyes easily defends Jon's first few takedowns I will put some money down on Dominick.
 
grndzro said:
I don't think we have the same definition of counters.
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Your definition is limited. There are many different ways to counter. Here are only 3 boxing counters. Same principles can be applied to counters that involve kicks, knees & elbows.

 
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