Alexis Davis @+240 is absolutely crazy. Like I told you guys on the rio card I know Vivi Araujo personally and trained with her for many years, she has everything to be one of the best of the division in the future but this is her biggest test, people are exaggerating a lot the result she got from Talita Bernardo for a couple of reasons.
Talita fucking sucks, I don’t rate her at all. Everybody was pilling on her against Gatto, bc Gatto has no business being the ufc, but Talita is fade material as well. Vivi Koed her in a short notice bout going up two categories as I heard from a friend of mine “this girl will dominate the division” let’s examine this narrative. First she was training and was in fight shape as displayed on the fight (so the short notice thing is not a huge factor.) and second she fought a lot at SW, but she is actually built now as a Flyweight so actually she was just going up one category not two.
Not diminishing her accomplishment, but those are facts. She looked very impressive as she indeed is, and I think she will have a very successful career. But this line is way way too wide, having trained with Vivi I thought when it came to her I always be biased bc when you know what a fighter can do personally in your head he seems a whole lot better sometimes than he really is. But actually Vivi is great I think she is the rightfully favorite here, she being one of my biggest cashes these year that 2.5u @+1000 for her to win via KO/TKO payed a very very nice holiday for me and my gf. But this is her first test and I’m fading her for two reasons.
One line is too wide, like I said a few times on these forums. I like to make my own lines pre lines being released so that I can choose my spots more clearly and I have the money line being 60-65% Vivi x 35-40% Davis. And actually I think it’s possible that the margin is wider, this is not an easy fight to predict and a 10% margin of error would not be an exaggeration making it possible in long term for this fight to be 45-55%.
I cap this fight with those odds, bc Davis will be the best competition Vivi has ever faced by a mile. Between destroying girls in the regional Japanese and Brazilian circuit. Alexis Davis has been fighting some of the best competition in the world for quite some time now. Araújo as an exciting prospect and Davis more as a gatekeeper are heading probably different directions.
But, Araujo lone loss is a Ko in round one against Sarah Frota (that is the toughest competition she has ever faced) and Davis will be her first real test. I think Araujo does win in this one, as my odds analysis reflecting her winning more inside the sample. But this will be a very close fight. And getting +240 (30%) is definitely valuable. But I went with a small sizing (0.6u), bc I have a different approach in this one I think if Vivi wins she will be finishing so I will have a bet on her ITD prop line (sizing depending on how will come out). I think playing both of sides like this will be a nice spot and also I think Davis line will tighten up in the upcoming days, she will still be a dog but a closer one.
